The ground at Towcester today is predictably heavy and this is an interesting looking handicap that has six runners who are tightly grouped at the weights.
Rosa Fleet for Venetia Williams is the top weight and looks to have a decent chance on the face of it. She was third last time out on heavy ground at Bangor having previously won at Southwell. Last time was her first run from the mark of 116 as she was raised eight pounds for the win at Southwell. She has lost all four of her outings on heavy ground and appears to prefer further as she has never won over this distance.
Son Of Suzie has recorded a couple of wins on heavy going and finished fifth last time out in a decent looking race at Cheltenham. He was a long way behind that day however and looks to be another who would prefer to be racing over a longer distance.
Cloudy Bob fell last time out at Leicester before the race really got going but he was well backed that day which gives the impression he was fancied at home. He has slipped down the weights to an attractive looking mark now, being a huge fourteen pounds below his top rating and seven pounds lower than his last victory. If he can get his jumping up to scratch then I think he has a live chance today, he has also won on heavy going in the past which is a plus.
Sunny Legend is the old timer of the race at eleven years old and has been running reasonably consistently of late, however this class of race looks beyond him and it was be a big surprise to see him feature at the business end of proceedings today.
Golan Dancer appears to be completely outclassed here and on all known form he doesn't have a chance.
The one I really like is Kings Cross for Tony Carroll. He was second last time out in heavy conditions at Lingfield where he was beaten by a hugely improving horse and prior to that he won in the same conditions at the same course. He is clearly at home in the tough conditions and two and a half miles looks like being his trip. The two chases he has had so far in the UK will have set him up nicely for today and as a six year old I think he has a lot of potential improvement in him. At the prices he looks to be the stand out bet and I will be surprised to see him beaten here today.
Towcester 14:05 - Kings Cross - 3 points @ 11/4 (Most firms)