The Betway Lincoln
The traditional flat turf season in Great Britain begins this weekend, with the Betway Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster Racecourse which is ran over one mile and will be contested by 22 runners.
The Roger Charlton trained YUFTEN is the short priced favourite (4/1) and will be ridden by Andrea Atzeni. The winner of the Bamoral Handicap at Ascot back in October comes in to this race after a prep run over seven furlongs at Wolverhampton finishing third but finishing well that day showcasing his ability to run and finish over one mile. You have to be a decent horse to win the Bamoral but at 4/1 this horse definitely isn't for me this weekend, especially considering only two favourites have won this race in the last decade and from the remaining eight winners in the past ten years only two have been shorter than 10/1. Saying that I'm quite keen on the chances of second favourite DONCHA (15/2). He seems to tick all the right boxes and has a plum draw in 21 (winner and runner up were drawn in 22 the last two years) and has Jamie Spencer on board who, in my opinion is the best man (or jockey) to hold up this horse and strike when the time is right. 9th to Yuften in the Balmoral back in October but was unlucky in running that day getting squeezed out when he was sure to run into a place, although the price puts me off slightly and he was as big as 25/1 a few weeks back I'm expecting a big run on Saturday from Doncha. Some of the trends we are looking at are official rating between 90 and 104, won a class three or higher, aged between 4 and 6 years old and previously won over a mile, these are just four very important trends, my list consists of nine trends people should really follow and there is one horse that matches all of them and that's Jack Garrity's ride INSTANT ATTRACTION (25/1). This horse loves a bit of cut in the ground with his form figures on soft reading 7223211453. With rain expected Friday and light showers Saturday morning in Doncaster along with the good draw and matching all the other key trends I will not be surprised if this horse hits the frame come 3.40 Saturday.
THIRD TIME LUCKY was 5th in Balmoral Cup in front of Doncha and behind Yuften and has been a busy horse since running no fewer than six times all in class two races with form figures of 314595 and has to overcome stall one for Saturday's Lincoln. An intresting runner for me is ZHUI FENG, finished 12th in last years Balmoral cup and shown nothing entering the final furlong, one year older and one year more experienced, this is another horse that scored highly on the key trends. He's won over a mile, hes drawn 13, he's won a class two (class higher than the class three trend), previously run in at least 15 races and is aged between 4 and 6. He ran in a class 1 over one mile two at the back end of February and just ran out of steam in the final 100 yards. The worry is the trip, just the two races at one mile finishing twelve of nineteen and eleven of twenty eight. I think he's a big danger and is worth an each way squeak at 18/1 (Ladbrokes). MASTER CARPENTER and STEEL TRAIN are the big priced runners I like the look of. The latter has been heavily backed since the draw was announced and has gone from 33/1 into 20/1 after the David O'Meara runner got the, in my opinion the best draw of the lot in 16. The 2017 form looks terrible with three runs resulting in form figures of 12 from 13, 10 from 13 and 13 from 13, before that he did win a class two at Newcastle (these four races have all come on the all weather). Last seen at this track back in November where he won a seven furlong contest with 19 runners on good to firm ground and will be hoping the rain holds off this weekend to enhance his chances (another horse that meets all but one key race trends).
MASTER CARPENTER is second to INSTANT ATTRACTION on the key race trends and he can be backed as big as 33/1. Again, a great draw in 19 but you have to go back to July 2015 for this horses last win but that was the John Smiths Cup (Heritage Handicap) at York where he had some class horses behind him. Every since that win he has ran in nine class ones, two class twos and one class three, unlike a lot of his rivals Saturday hes constantly been running against some of the best flat horses in the UK. He's another one who would like the rain to come and the more cut in the ground we get the more chance this horse will pull a cracker of a run out of the bag. Being one of the lightest in the race, the draw and the ability to mix amongst the best I think the 33/1 on offer is to good to refuse. Another one to mention is the heavily backed DOLPHIN VISTA, nice enough draw in stall 10, the pick of Paul Hanagan, trained by a very successful trainer in this race Richard Fahey and also gets in at a featherweight. The 33/1 available on him a few days ago are long gone and the people who got that price could be laughing come 3.40 Saturday.
With 22 runners and most of them making their seasonal debut this is a lottery but going by key race trends and previous runs we are torn between three horses. With six places up for grabs pn SkyBet and five with Paddy Power we advise backing all three selections with those bookies. Whatever you decide to back, good luck and enjoy the race!
Each way bet: INSTANT ATTRACTION 20/1 (SkyBet) - (25/1 Bet365 4 places)
Each way bet: STEEL TRAIN 25/1 (SkyBet)
Each way bet: MASTER CARPENTER 33/1 (Paddy Power)
Each way bet: MASTER CARPENTER 33/1 (Paddy Power)