Carlisle 16:00

Carlisle hosts a really nice looking card today, and this is the highlight, a fillies' Listed race for three-year-olds being run over seven furlongs.

Eve Johnson Houghton, who runs Bahamadam, has been in excellent form over the past month. She's had 13 winners (25.00%) and 25 places (48.08%) from 52 runners, for level stakes profits 48.25 and 61.32 respectively. Bahamadam was a winner last time out at Leicester, staying on nicely in the good to soft conditions. I'm not particularly convinced with how good that race was, and this is quite a big step up in class, therefore she will need to have improved again and be right at the top of her game to be involved today.

Asidious Alexander was highly thought of as a two-year-old and wasn't disgraced in The Cherry Hinton (a Group 2) at Newmarket last summer. She then went on to have a win and two places in France, before being outclassed in her last two races. Paul Hanaghan takes the ride today, and with dropping back down into Listed company connections will be hopeful of a return to form. I'm still to be completely convinced with her however, and think she may find at least one too good.

Bletchley finished one place in front of Asidious Alexander in the Cherry Hinton, where she was sent off the 9/4 favourite, showing how well thought of she was. She disappointed next time out in a Group 3 on good to soft going at Ayr, but when stepped up to seven furlongs on her only outing so far this year she looked a different proposition, running out a comfortable winner and I expect even more improvement in this. She is by Makfi and will surely get further in time, however, a strongly run seven furlongs looks perfect for her at present, and she will take all the beating here today. Ralph Beckett very rarely brings his horses to Carlisle, but when he does he invariably collects, and the extremely talented Oisin Murphy is doing the piloting again.

Elusive Beauty has had an incredible amount of races (17) for a three-year-old, however, she produced a fine effort over a mile last time out in a Group 3 at the Curragh, finishing fifth behind Penny Pepper. That was on much softer ground than she will encounter today though, and it remains a doubt whether she is as effective on a firmer surface.

The William Haggas trained Isobel's On It has been running very consistently this year and was a winner of a maiden last time out at Lingfield. This is a huge step up however and it would take a massive effort to trouble Bletchley and Asidious Alexander, in my opinion.

Today's Selection

Bletchley - 2 points win @ 2/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Betvictor)

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