0.5pt on the treble excluding the 3.35 as 2 runners.
Hi Simon Great tipping again. This is a very good system. Is there a chance of you continuing these on Deans return possibly in your own thread? Whatever you decide to do many thanks for your time and effort Dave
Thanks Amos – 2 winners and a photo finish. Unlucky not to land the 70/1 treble there . Will post tomorrow’s later after this Olympic tosh….
You know things are going well when a photo is your wort result bring on tomorrow and opening ceromonies suck
Hi simon, great tipping again! this is a good little system. thanks for the info!
have a goodun
Were do i find your tips for friday 27july
Red Rythm was 8/1. Just a thought if you backed these selections early you might be able to lay them on bet fair later and green up pretty often
please does anyone have any selections for york tomorow?
Hi gaz, the horses im putting up are horses returning 0-5 days since last race in which they must have placed 1,2,3,4 and there prev race before this must be within 40 days.
5:45 Chep – Chosen Character – 5/1 7:50 Chep – Red Rythm – 5/1 + Evens (place) 8:55 Chep – Solar View – Evens
Tabaret today only managed 3rd.
@Simon – With all these different criteria flying round I’m a little confused. The selections you’ve been putting up i.e. Tricky Madam/Great Run & today Tabaret, what criteria do they meet and is it these criteria that you say is 110pt profit since Jan 11?
Hi, yes generally level stakes. Depends on the price I can get on place market. If it’s under evens I will place win bet only. If over evens then generally 1pt win and 1pt place. No PL figures but I will work it out. Just keeping this while Deans on holiday. Don’t want to hijack his thread lol. The system has about 110 pt profit since Jan 11. That’s to SP so a lot lot more if you get early prices.
Hi Simon Great work on your system. Im very impressed with the detail you go into. Can i ask are the bets you suggest E/W? And level stakes? Also whats the profit / loss since you started posting your selections? Keep up the good work mate Many thanks Dave
Course: Any UK Runners: 4 to 7 Days since last run 0-7 Placed 1,2 on last run Placed 1,2 on next run Type of race: ALL (AW, Flat, Handicap, Stake etc)
Runs = 277, Wins = 104 (37%) WLSP +15.20. AVRG price 1.81/1. Place % = 56% LSP of -31.91
Adding this restriction c-R > ALL – Efficiency in races of the same Code at Courses with a similar length of Run-In (Short/Medium/Long).
Good stuff i have been getting on afew of your selections to turn over some money for the bet 365 mobile bonus good results but the prices shorten quickly.
Tricky Madam not so good, ‘Great Run’ had a Great Run…
Early price was just under 6/1. Went off 5/2. So decent profit.
@Greg – System results to follow in morning. Looking good so far, especially the 2-7 runners.
Tommorows:
6.45 – Tabaret @ 7.6
Simon I can’t see the draw making much difference to be honest with there just being the 5 runners but the danger does look to come from the unraced Juana Belen. Personally I don’t like betting such short odds against unraced horses. Great Run looks a better bet but drawn 13 won’t help it! I will probably be proven wrong and they will both romp home! Lol lets hope so! Regards Gary
Nice call on great run.
Pat
Tommorow: 2:30 Catt – Tricky Madam – 2nd LTO returns after 5 days. Has the best draw which should prove significant over this 7f trip.
2:40 Ling: Great Run.
Thanks for pointing that out Pat, not sure why it didnt come up as a qualifer o_0 will look into that.
Other one just finished out of the places. Not good enough
@greg – will run those two tonight and post results tomorrow.
@raz. Indeed the money looking good. Managed to get on the drifted price this morning of 12/1 and just over 3/1 place. Let’s hope it runs well
Hi Simon, Missed out on Dr Irv yesterday but interesting to note today’s qualifier, Sydney Cove, is also one of Jason’s tips and has already been backed into 7/1 on Betfair (@ 10 a.m.). Thanks for the info.
Hi Simon,
Could you check what the stats are for the following criteria:
Course: Any UK Runners: 8 to 15 Days since last run 0-7 Placed 1,2,3 Last run Placed 1,2,3 Next run Type of race: ALL (AW, Flat, Handicap, Stake etc)
You could also try the following:
Course: Any UK Runners: 4 to 7 Days since last run 0-7 Placed 1,2 on last run Placed 1,2 on next run Type of race: ALL (AW, Flat, Handicap, Stake etc)
These 2 systems would combine all races ran with 15 or less runners, all runners placing in first 3 on their last run and placing in the next run within 7 days. It would then be possible to decrease or increase the number of days since last run where they placed.
Would be interesting to see
Dr Irv, placed 3rd at 18/1. One qualifier tommorow Sydney Cove 4:30 Muss. 11/1
Consider yourself 3.20 yar was in the system
Sorry guys the restriction is just within 40 days. My mistake. None today again. But Dr Irv was a qualifier in the 8.30 bev due to being placed 4th LTO. As it was 9 runners technically he didn’t place. Maybe try the system with just 1,2,3. Could still be worth a place bet in open race. If anyone has any other system ideas that would be good
@Alex R That would be a dead heat then?
@Simon Many thanks for your work on the ‘Five day system’ was a regular feature on the (currently suspended) Holy Grail site. I was on Lochantanks big time before but sadly missed yesterday.
Anyone? Is anyone still exploring ‘Laying the Field’ ? With what results?
@Mark W. Thanks for the encouragement. The curse that arrives as soon as you publish continued yesterday. Will try again today.
Remember these are principally for the place market except where noted. Alternatively try 1 pt. win, 4 pts to place.
14.25 – King’s Wharf – Win Bet 15.00 – Rebel Dancer 16.10 – Maizy Missile 17.15 – Lord Lescriba
Curragh Heavy going but I have a small treble on three horses that have all won on Heavy… 14.10 – Caponata 14.45 – Count of Liomonade 15.20 – Great Heavens
Good Luck if you decide to play.
Hi Simon, had to settle for 5/1 for lockantanks but by ignoring the 7.15 at lingfield (because you identified 2 qualifiers), there was still a reasonable profit on the day. Appreciate your efforts and hopefully you can advise us of more qualifiers in the coming week. Cheers.
Your Comments
Hi guys, Not sure Lockintanks was actually a qualifier as it last ran 17 days in its penultimate race and it stipulates 21-40 days in correspondence !
Your Comments
Hi Simon, Was Lockantanks a qualifier, as i thought the time limit was 21-40 says in previous race, and in this case think it was 17 days. Possibly i’ve misread your article ?…..Allan
It may also be worth noting that Dean’s NAP a while back (Lieutenant Kojak) who was a NR is running tommorow at the 4:00 Ascot. Currently 11.5 on exchanges
2:30 Ripon – Balinka 4th 3.05 Ripon – Lockantanks 1st 4:00 Mark – Clarion Call NR 4:55 Ripon – Ypres 3rd 7:15 Ling – Sarangoo & Bermondsey Bob – Both unpl 8:15 Ling – Jackie Love NR
Balinka missed out on place, still – No where near as good as Dean, but if you got the early price for Lockantanks as stated above, you would be in profit.
No qualifiers tommorow.
Although Kings Wharf back out after 7 days, should be hard to beat here.
Good luck tommorow, in the mean time gonna test new system targeting races with smaller prize money.
If i find anything of interest I shall post.
Hi Simon
Thanks for carrying out the “5 days since last run” research. I’d be very interested to see any further Stats/selections you come up with.
Craig
Ian,Nolecce was not placed in its last race so does not qualify.Hope everyone got Lockentanks at an early price of 11/1
Your Comments
Later Selections – very little.
Lingfield
20.15 – Aciano 20.45 – Roxelena
Yesterday’s place bets. Slight improvement, I pt up. Running total, 2 days. -2 pts.
Hi Guys,
If anyone is on here in ‘The Master’s’ absence these are my selections for today. I am suggesting 1 pt win and 4 pts to place. Let’s see how it goes. Minimum prices @ off. Win 2.0 Place 1.50. Must satisfy BOTH.
14.00 – Charlotte Rosina 14.30 – West Coast Dream 15.10 – Set to Music 17.00- Pashan Garh
Ripon
18.05 – Izzet
Market Rasen
16.00 – Compton Blue 17.15 – Well Green
Cartmel
14.25 – Foundry Square 17.55 – Wheyaye
Lingfield and Haydock to follow or these will not be posted by 14.00. Too many interruptions form CLB this morning!
Hi Dean,
If/when you read this. A Homage. Missing you already!
Your performance yesterday was off the scale, the best I have EVER seen across the cards, such consistency would be hard to beat if you had tomorrow’s paper. Applying my own filters and not subbing N/R left 15 races. Applying £10.0 L/S to each horse @ BSP produced a (net) profit of £435.84 for T/O of £300, ROI 242%.
If you have achieved that before or can do it again I will believe you can walk on water!
My own staking plan, applied to the same selections produced a ROI of 160%. normally I would have been delighted with that but you found so many winners it does not stand comparison.
Hope you are having or had a great time.
Malcolm
I dont think walking on water would be much of a challenge for dean at the moment. i want to see him pick two winners in the same race when he gets back.
Afternoon all, has dean posted his ratings today?? I cant find them. cheers for now
Hi guys another horse today under 5 days since ran Ripon 6:05 No,1 Nolecce.
Good Luck
Does not fit into the system, not been placed previous race.
Paper Trade. Lay of the day – 1.45pm Market Rasen: Ctappers 4.0
As usual. Publish it and it turns around
Hello Simon, thanks for doing the 5 day system im really interested in this!
might have a few cheeky place bets on your system advised tips.
cheers for now and good luck all!
Hi dean i watched your tips run yesterday could not have a bet but i am thinking off having a bet today r u puttimg some more tips on later thanks Alski
Hi guys, for those interested in the Days Since Last Race system which qualifies horses appearing within 5 days of their last race in which they must have placed, and there race before must have been 21-40 days. Few qualifiers tommorow, which i have listed below.
There was one qualifer today and that was Cruise to The Limit who won at 9/4.
Tommorows:
2:30 Ripon – Balinka 3.05 Ripon – Lockantanks 4:00 Mark – Clarion Call 4:55 Ripon – Ypres 7:15 Ling – Sarangoo & Bermondsey Bob 8:15 Ling – Jackie Love
Strike Rate of system for win bets is 22% (+101.09 Pts since 2011) and place bets is 45%.
I have added an additional restriction to this system which has increased the strike rate for win bets to 28% – work in progress.
Anyway, it’s a Saturday and that means competitive racing. Will see how these perform on paper. Although couldn’t resit a dabble on Ypres (W&P) and Lockantanks (P)
Good luck tommorow.
top dutchin picks dean, well done
pat
The last 2 won so I finished down 4 units. I missed the NR replacements. If I’d included them, then I would have been up 3 units. Is everybody else doing the dutch Ratings section? Its just that, the June results shows the Top Picks and those did well and so now I’m also doing the Top Picks. Just flat stake on each tip and double on the NAP.
Hi Dean,
Terrific performance today. I will tot up the totals when I get home tonight; have a new staking plan to apply, will see what it does for profit.
Have trouble free journeys and FUN.
Many thanks again.
Malcolm
Hi, I wonder if you can help me? I keep reading how well everyone is doing but I keep ending the day down. Yesterday, I was down 1 unit. I bet 1 unit on each of the top picks and 2 on the NAP (which won). How come other people were up? Today, you say 9 out of 12 winners but I’ve had 1 winner in the first 9 and am down nearly 7 units. Can anyone put me straight?
Yes, great tipping today, Dean – I’m going to stop as well and take my profits to the pub! Enjoy your holiday and thanks again.
lmao well think i’ll call it a day 9 outta 12 winners and 12 points up on the ratings just gonna paper trade rest of the day
I backed some this morning my time this evenig for you guys and some of the prices were a lot lower than they had started which suggests to me there were a lot of us on deans winners for the whole day good tipping dean enjoy your holidays
Niiiiiiice, enjoy that matey!!
Hah, you’re not kidding there my friend. It’s longer than the dangly bits of the residents of your holiday destination!!
@Gaz Antigua havent booked return flights yet but probably just a week.
Ive asked jason to give us a new page this 1 getting a bit full
Introduced a new filter today, takes ages and several interruptions this morning. Here are the early selections, I am moving my minimum place price down to 1.80. Evening selections will follow later.
Ascot
14.10 – Hot Secret 15.55 – Farlow 16.30 – Poole Harbour 17.05 – Dubai Dynamo – will be below threshold. I will probaly do 1 pt. to win/4 to place provided I can get 2.0/1.25.
Haydock
17.25 – Jupiter Fidius
Good Luck!
Yep johnny, purple n gold misses out again, he’ll run when summer gets here lol
only just realised Notts is off
Love the horse, he’s a sandwich short of a picnic, says a lot about me i suppose lol.
@Mark w- yeah,i backed the bugger! good horse but i’m not sure how they’ll have trained it out of him,maybe they’ve fitted him with sunglasses..
two corrections to the above post, his real name is headspace and he’s running at pontefract this time, hope they don’t mow a line in the turf !
No pressure for the naps then mark cheers lol.
NR Replacements
4-15 maska pony 20/1
6-10 willowing 6/1
6-45 serene oasis 10/1
Watch out everyone ” Headcase” is running at Ayr, if ever a horse was aptly named its him. He’s the one who last time out threw the race by shirking the mowed line in the track at the finishing line, time out before that he jumped the same line lol.
Back him if you want a laugh.
Malcolm,
Seems like you were hit with the first day curse, i can see how this could make quite nice profits with a bit of luck.
Keep it up and don’t get disheartened.
Thanks for your hard work each day your tips r good thanks Alski
Thanks for your efforts Dean and excellent work with the naps, had a £50 mobile bonus from bet365, been using it exclusively for your naps. Have a great holiday.
Best regards
Mark W.
Top Picks
Friday 20/12/12 All 1pt (£10)wins
1-50 not purple n gold 9/5
2-00 hay paddyfrommenlo 5/1
2-10 asc pearl bell 2/1
3-05 hay tip top gorgeous 7/1
3-40 hay cruise tothelimit 10/3
4-05 not lucky suit 8/1
4-15 hay mean it 5/6 NO BET
4-50 hay rocktherunway 11/4
5-05 asc dubai dynamo 7/2
5-25 hay hayek 15/8 NAP
5-35 asc dutch old master 4/1
5-40 nwm hail promenade 7/1
6-10 nwm nargys 11/4 NEXT BEST
6-25 pon secret symphony 3/1
6-45 nwm amadeus wolfe tone 4/1
7-50 nwm trojan rocket 4/1
8-25 nwm zamdy man 4/1
Dean
I have just started to see your tips and this week backing your nap selections has given me a profit. I want to thank you I like just one horse a day and your naps fit the bill. I know there will be losses that’s part of racing but I think your tips are good and I wanted to say thank you for providing then
Morning guys here are the ratings
Friday 20/12/12
1-50 not purple n gold 9/5 £6 baileys over ice 4/1 £4
2-00 hay paddyfrommenlo 5/1 £4 bold cuffs 11/4 £6
2-10 asc pearl bell 2/1 £5 diaminda 2/1 £5
2-20 not infinite hope 6/4 £7 devine guest 13/2 £3
Well done Dean, excellent results again today. My selections were not up to yesterdays returns, -3.0 pts to BSP as per rules. Disappointing today, both Strike Rate and Prices.
That said I think we were unlucky today. 19.35 – Showflower won @ 1.96 20.10 Ginzan – placed @1.86 but matched @ 2.0 on my Bot within 5 secs of off time.
There were also 3 close up 4th places:- 16.15 – Putin – 1/2L 18.20 – Another Citizen – sh. 21.00 Dorry K – nk.
Only explaining this time so you can see how it could have been very different but that's racing. Better luck tomorrow.
Dean, how long will you be away for???? Tips are great
Thanks guys sounds like you all had a good thats brilliant cyas all tomorrow. Dean
Outstanding again today. 7 points up today and 22 points up in the last 3 days. Great work Dean. Going to relax for the rest of the evening with a beer. Cheers Dave
Your Comments hi dean, thanks for your response, brilliant tipping again today.
The 17:30 at Bath has just finished and Dean’s ratings are up 20 points to BFSP.
I’d say this was a good place to stop for the day…
bailed out early doors today Dean,due to your brilliant start,and thanks for your help on the forex thread,really looking forward to it getting up and running,have a great holiday,see ya in a couple of weeks,and good luck to everyone on here 🙂
niel i started about 5-30am this morning and i only ber on betfair
Your Comments Arnie excuse my ignorance but whose templegate?
Sun tipster
Nap wins again, well done dean.
Pat
Your Comments
hi dean, was wondering how you got the price of super simon @ 6-1 in the 3.15 at brighton, i could only get 13-8 early price. i must be on the wrong betting website.
Great day today, seems the weather to be helping. Nice one dean, wonder what happens when u away.
On the other hand Templegate is on fire, 5 straight wins and 3 of them big money.
Cheers top man Dean yet again.Im taking my points and finished 5 points up that will do me. Sean
well done Malcolm,hope your efforts are rewarded with a good day 🙂
Good afternoon,
Let’s hope it is a better one for all of us. Weather looks to be improving, unless any of you living near today’s meetings know better…
As the weather and going have been making life so difficult I have been looking for something that might prove more consistent at this time. I have paper traded a few days, ran on the Bot yesterday and made 10.5 pts profit, sadly only £2.00 stakes.
I thought I would share today as no-one believes what you claim afterwards. Feel free to follow or paper-trade – publishing is usually the kiss of death! If they work and with kind permission from Jason and Dean I could post until Dean returns, maybe help to keep the site active?
The strategy is for the PLACE MARKET, the selection should be a minimum of 2.0 at the off.
Hamilton
15.30 King of Paradise 16.00 Act your Shoe Size 17.00 Sweetnessandlight
5-00 ham lord franklin 7/2 £5 sweetnessandlight 4/1 £5
5-15 bri sheikhzayedroad 2/1 £7 hawaana 9/1 £3
5-30 bat windforpower 8/1 £4 barracuda boy 4/1 £6
5-50 bri barbirolli 18/1 £5 royal defence 12/1 £5
6-00 bat osiris way 7/1 £5 signfer 7/1 £5
6-10 eps sheesha bear 5/1 £5 o ma lad 11/2 £5
6-20 don another citizen 5/1 £5 errigal lad 11/2 £5
6-30 bat waspy 3/1 £7 macy anne 12/1 £3
6-40 eps fathsta 7/2 £5 cool rhythm 9/2 £5
6-50 don pompeia 6/4 £7 testamatta 9/2 £3
7-05 bat woolston ferry 7/2 £6 phillipstown 13/2 £4
7-15 eps royal skies 11/4 £5 zannetto 3/1 £5
7-25 don tickle time 2/1 £5 elle woods 5/2 £5 rfc
7-35 bat gabriels lad 4/1 £6 millibar 17/2 £4
7-45 eps jane lachatte 4/1 £4 tamaruud 11/4 £6
7-55 don madam macie 10/3 £4 dance and dance 6/4 £6
8-10 bat sparking 7/1 £6 gracies games 13/1 £4
8-20 eps dr red eye 11/4 £6 abigails angel 5/1 £4
8-30 don amazing blue sky 7/1 £5 william haigh 9/1 £5
8-40 bat one last dream 9/2 £5 bateleur 11/2 £5
8-50 eps benzanno 4/1 £6 jumeirah palm star 11/1 £4
9-00 don fiesty champion 3/1 £6 in the crowd 11/1 £4
ouch – what a horrible day !
I like your nap selection, excellent tipping
thanks for the picks again Dean
NR replacements
2-30 narcisist 4/1
3-50 victor hewgo 5/1
4-10 sweet fairnando 4/1
I will test that one later Alex and see what comes up. How about if we also did a minimum price i. E 2 or 3/1 . Also bet info, I will be happy to run your system if u still have the criteria
No system just simple back and lay for small profit when the horse loses and smallish loss when horse wins but you have the free bet i do it every sat with IAS in aust but due to time difference i miss out on bet 365 GB and Irish
@betinfo – I use Visual Form Book (dataform)
It sounds like you are on to something with the last race results Simon my ears also picked up when i heard the earlier stat.
Maybe have a look at up to 7 days break and won last race -7 days break and placed last race not including 4th -and a million other possible permutations i currently have running through my head
Although it looks like there is already some money to be made esp. at BOG
PS does anyone use bet 365 to take their free money on the 4 to 1
Todays Top Picks
Wednesday 18/7/12 All 1pt(£10) wins
2-00 lin ukranian princess 7/2
2-20 utt battlecat 4/5 NO BET
2-30 lin niger 7/5
2-50 utt enroller 15/8
3-10 cat blue shoes 7/2
3-20 utt delganey gunner 11/2
3-30 lin alfraamsey 10/3
3-50 utt aqualung 4/1
4-00 lin silent moment 6/4
4-10 cat fisher 5/1 place
4-20 utt benny well 9/2
4-40 cat eastlands lad 11/2
5-30 lin lord of the storm 6/1
7-00 san haatefina 2/1 NAP
8-35 san april ciel 15/2
Good morning guys good day yesterdy more of the same today please
Wednesday 18/7/12
2-00 lin ukranian princess 7/2 £6 the baronet 7/1 £4
2-10 cat red joker 4/1 £4 silent footsteps 6/4 £6
2-20 utt battlecat 4/5 on the feather 12/1 NO BET rfc
2-30 lin niger 7/5 £7 check keyadi in the first albayan 11/2 £3
2-40 cat llewellyn 9/4 £6 zomerlust 7/1 £4
2-50 utt enroller 15/8 £6 saute 11/4 £4
3-00 lin dangerous to know 7/2 £6 kaiser wilhelm 10/1 £4
8-55 wor marie de anges 10/11 NO BET NO VALUE although cant see marie de anges being beat on the right path 6/1
Sounds like extremely useful software Simon
Simon, what software are you running your systems through? I once used Racexperts software until they stopped it, I had a few very good systems. I may still have the criteria to run the systems again.
Ran the following system last night:
Course: Any UK Runners: 8 to 40 Days since last run 0-5 Placed 1,2,3,4 on last run Type of race: ALL (AW, Flat, Handicap, Stake etc)
Runs = 1,135, Wins = 199 (Strike Rate= 17%) (Avg LSP = -61pt) Number of placed horses = 544 (Strike Rate = 44%). Probably more as dont think my analyser takes into account that BF pays out for 4th.
So overall It looks a bit gloomy, HOWEVER if you add the following restirction:
DSR2 Days Since 2nd last race under any code = 021 to 040 = 352 runs. Wins = 75 (21% strike rate). AV LSP for win bets = +107pts. Average starting price = 5/1. Placed = 165 (46 % strike rate) + 25pts.
These results are from 01/01/11 to May 2012
If you have any ideas, please share. Running systems which include all different type of races, AW, Flat, etc generally produces shrewd results??
GOing to re-run the system later with the DSR2 restriction too see if there are any other restrictions that will make it more profitable.
Good luck today.
I can see the headlines now, ” Dean escapes to sun and leaves punters in spiral of depression”.
Honestly mate, have a great break a,d recharge those batteries, you’ve more than earned it.
Best Regards
Mark W.
Hi guys sorry havent been on most of the day been dragged around finding flights afraid im gonna be away for a week. as for today ive just shut down for the night 5.6 points on the ratings and 12.4 on the top picks good day all round lets hope for many more. Goodnight Dean
Your Comments
hi dean, have been watching your tips over the last week and am really impressed with your tipping, really nice to see someone sharing their experience free of charge, did start having some bets on your tips today and already in profit, great to hear from the other guys an all, keep up the good work.
Great day today. just over 9 points up following the top tips. Many thanks Dean Dave
Hi Simon,
That sounds a really useful database you have. I agree with Greg’s comments. Appreciate your efforts and sharing the results.
Hi Greg
Yes I will run that one later for sure. It wasn’t worth posting the results of that last one I said about. but I will run that criteria later and come back
Wow, 96% thats some return to make the mind boggle and the bank swell. Will have to keep an eye on racing post for that stat.
@ Simon
Hi,
That system you’re checking is something Dean mentioned. I think it was for horses that are running again within 5 days of winning/placing LTO.
As horses finishing 3rd in any race with runners of 7 or less don’t place (unless with BetFair that had 8 or more before NRs) do you think it would be best to search your database for field sizes of a minimum of 8?
Just over the past couple of days there have been 7 runners that fit these criteria – 5 of them either won or placed.
I think I remember Dean saying that the strike rate for placing over the last 3 years was 96%. It’ll be interesting to see what your outcome is.
NR replacements
Tues 17/7/12
5-00 bev art mistress 15/2
5-15 fos top frock 7/2
5-50 yar disclaimer 5/2
6-20 yar maypole joe 7/2
thanks again Dean
And a few value selections
Tues 17/7/12 VALUE RATINGS
3-00 bev MON DUCHESS 18/1
4-30 bev violent velocity 12/1
5-30 bev rowan lodge 18/1
6-00 sow colour bearer 12/1
6-50 yar anjomarba 16/1
7-50 yar green mountain 14/1
8-20 yar miss aix 20/1
Todays Top Picks
Tuesday 17/7/12 All 1pt (£10) wins
2-00 bev bada bing 4/1
2-15 fos city girl 4/7 NO BET
2-30 bev inchy coo 11/4
2-45 fos astra hall 5/4 NAP
3-45 fos pandorica 7/2
4-00 bev mojolika 4/1
4-15 fos billidn 2/1 NEXT BEST
4-30 bev eenie mac 7/2
4-45 fos first rebellion 4/1
5-30 bev tinseltown 15/2
5-50 yar mowhoob 8/1
6-20 yar poetic princess 9/2
7-20 yar one kool dude 10/3
7-50 yar al karlovyyh 3/1
8-30 sow jonnie skull 7/2
Good morning guys here are todays ratings
Tuesday 17/7/12
2-00 bev bada bing 4/1 £7 no time to cry 12/1 £3
2-15 fos city girl 4/7 kodatish 6/1 NO BET NO VALUE
2-30 bev inchy coo 11/4 £5 ayr missile 11/4 £5
2-45 fos astra hall 5/4 £8 tastethewine 12/1 £2
3-00 bev arch walker 13/2 £4 headstight 4/1 PLACE £6
3-15 fos maid of silk 10/1 adeste 2/5 NO BET NO VALUE
3-30 bev lady chaparel 13/2 £4 save the bees 5/1 £6
3-45 fos pandorica 7/2 £5 villa royale 5/2 £5
4-00 bev mojolika 4/1 £6 blackstone vegas 6/1 £4
4-15 fos billidn 2/1 £8 praxiteles 12/1 £2
4-30 bev eenie mac 7/2 £5 first class favour 7/2 £5
4-45 fos first rebellion 4/1 £6 big sylv 13/2 £4
5-00 bev red highlites 9/2 £5 red cobra 4/1 £5
5-15 fos compton bird 13/2 £5 siouxperhero 7/1 £5
5-30 bev tinseltown 15/2 £5 landesherr 9/1 £5
5-50 yar mowhoob 8/1 £5 makafeh 11/2 £5
6-00 sow just like heaven 13/2 £5 spic n span 8/1 £5
6-20 yar poetic princess 9/2 £5 blades rose 4/1 £5
6-30 sow muhamee 9/4 £5 adili 11/4 £5
6-50 yar mucky molly 11/2 £5 represent 6/1 £5
7-00 sow kingaroo 7/1 £5 the blue dog 13/2 £5
7-20 yar one kool dude 10/3 £5 seventeen seventy 10/3 £5
7-30 sow minigun bell 11/4 £6 snow bay 7/1 £4
7-50 yar al karlovyyh 3/1 £6 love grows wild 4/1 £4
8-00 sow lexi the princess 7/4 lord advocate 5/2 NO VALUE
8-20 yar spirit of the law 4/1 £6 twelve strings 6/1 £4
8-30 sow jonnie skull 7/2 £7 gracies gift 9/1 £3
8-50 yar lyric poet 3/1 £6 chankillo 5/1 £4
9-00 sow kung hei fat choy 5/4 £8 smart affair 9/1 £2
Forgot to say a thank you to Jason Dean and Brian whose irish tips on Sunday gave me a lucky 15
I agree with the above comments best forum by a country mile as we strive to beat the old enemy the BOOKIE
Also, if anyone else has any good system ideas (Back or Lay)
I will be happy to test them (with past results)
Hey Dean/Guys
Someone said about the system, where horses run within a set amount of days and placed on their previous run.
I’m going to test the following system on my database tonight:
Number of runners: Minimum of 5 Minimun number of runs (total): 3 – so we have some sort of form Last run: Must have placed (2nd, 3rd) Current Race: Must be within 7 days of previous.
Not sure who originally posted this similar idea, but im gonna run the results from 1/1/11 and post results tommorow
Many Thanks to Jason, Dean and Brian 4 providing a great service. Going to start splitting the dutching each-way, see what profit I come up with at end of week. Quite a few placed horses 2day on selections at decent prices.
Funny day. Some sweet wins. Many others coming second place and third-place. So unlucky. But that’s betting. Thanks Dean.
I second that Norman(are we allowed to say second on here) fantastic site with great community spirit and endless advice, some would say i`m sad but i look forward to it every day.
Woud just like to say that Bet Info 24 must be one of the best horseracing sites on the web. No small thanks to Jason ,Dean, and Brian who put in a tremendous amount of work to provide such inspired Tipping. Also it is interesting that other members are prepared to put input in to try and improve what is already a profitable and enjoyable experience. I look forward each day not only to the selections but all the posts keep up the good work everyone! good luck to us all .
Both NO BETS on ratings system got the fc typical!!
Just over a year
WOW! Ok cool, and over how long of a period is that?
Without going through all the stats i think i can remember 2, 1 that was just a really bad day and another where there were about 7 non runners and the other few lost
@Dean – I know you might not be able to answer this, but has there ever been a day when NONE of your top picks have won at all?
@Greg, yeah, let’s go with those criteria. Won or placed LTO and running again within 7 days. Let’s see what strike rate comes up for it to place and/or win the next time out. Also, am I right in thinking that you’d does this analysis on a spread sheet? So if yo put the number of days in a column you could sort and manipulate it by those days to see if it’s a better strike right if it turns out again in say 5 days instead of 7 and things like that? Would fully appreciate that Greg. Happy to help if I can in any way?
Dean, yeah – I wasn’t asking/expecting you to look into it mate, just thought I remember seeing it on here somewhere and checking with you that I wasn’t making it up/going nuts haha. Would you know of a website you can look at where you can easily see if a horse has run in the last couple of days and is running again?
@Gaz yeah very high strike rate apparantly but doing all the ratings posting on here and the forex just havent had time to analyse it properly im sure if you ask on here one of the guys will have a look at it looks like gregs good with that sort of thing. Hey Greg u wanna be our stat man?
@raz yeah everyone uses the ratings in different ways if you can combine them with other research and make a profit thats great at the end of the day thats what were all trying to do.
@dale i only ever put one £1 line on recently ive had a £14,£83,£139 i think yesterdays was £300 and something.
I’ll have a look at it. What are the criteria? Horse won/ placed LTO and running again within 7 days?
Replacements for Non Runners
4-45 sow marmalade moon
6-10 win cruise to the limit
6-40 bussa
7-10 lucky beggar
thanks for the reply dean, yer ive pondered doing placepots, you took notice of what the payout was to a £1 stake?? if so any decent ones??
Hi Dean, To be fair to johnnyd and his earlier post, I don’t think he was saying it’s easy to pick winners. If I’ve understood him correctly, he was saying it’s too easy to become lazy and simply leave all the hard work to others like yourself. I’m guilty of that myself! I accept that you, Brian & Jason are better at finding winners than I am (wouldn’t be hard, mind you!) but what I try to do now is look at your picks, study form & other factors and try and identify what has attracted you to a particular horse in the hope I can improve my own knowledge. Thanks for all your good work. (still some heavy showers around Ayr at present).
Thankyou Raz, that is exactly what I meant. Dean does a great job! Let’s hope we all have a good, profitable week.
Hi guys, everyone alright – not been online over the weekend.
Dean, wasn’t there a suggestion on one of these threads that backing horses that won and re-run in the next day or say has a high strike rate of winning/placing?
Hi Rob firstly anything odds on unless its absolutely 100% no doubt about it gonna win then with the dutching really if im staking £10 on 2 horses i at least want £10 profit i know some of the selections do come in under that figure (6-40 if either wins profit is a fiver) but in an ideal world that would be my minimum.
Hi Dale i actually do a placepot most days have hit a few. grand lahou knocked me out in the first yesterday then the rest of them all won/placed.
Dean, out of interest, when using the day’s picks, what represents no value to you when dropping both selections out of a race???
No problem, Sean.
Should be with you soon
Dean your selections and dedication are brilliant
Ignore the moaners and groaners, the majority of us know you do a cracking job and I for one welcome your contributions.
@Greg i tried to open the spreadsheet but no joy,can you send a copy please when you get time?smith6082@sky.com
Cheers
Hi everyone my first post on here, i have found a very interesting way what ive tried for the last week or so with deans selections thats is averaging 6pts profit per day over the last week and a bit. ive been backing in blocks of 8 small stake 20p ew cross doubles and trebles no theory just his first selection the first 8 then antother 8 of his second best seltion untill there was no picks left sometimes it left the last bet bein a smaller number of selections, and then the same with deans top picks but all of them in the same bet. also has anyone checked if deans hit any placepots since posting as he nearly won me the scoop 6 on saturday bar 1 selections that didnt place i was going to invest some time this week see if he hit any place pots and see what sort prize money they paid.
Small profit on both systems yesterday but how unlucky were we? plenty of 2nd and 3rds and 2 last fence fallers who would probably have won. They say luck evens itself out over time lets hope we get some today. Happy hunting.Dean
Todays top Picks
Monday 16/7/12 All £10 (1pt) wins
2-15 sow lincoln rose 7/2
2-35 ayr the nifty fox 4/1
3-05 ayr oddysey 11/4??
3-15 sow flying pickets 17/2
4-05 ayr dubai dynamo 11/4 NAP
4-35 ayr rub of the relic 9/2
4-45 sow miss noble 3/1
5-05 ayr lady bluesky NO BET
6-00 wol therapeutic 4/1
6-30 wol astroscarlet 7/2
6-40 win purple n gold 2/1 NEXT BEST
7-10 win shahdaroba 7/2
8-10 win choral festival 15/2
8-40 win swynmor 11/4
9-00 wol footstepsofspring 7/2
Good morning guys slightly concerned about the amount of faves in the ratings today reducing the value of dutching. Ive left them in as i like to post the full list but i know most of you can spot where there is no value and remove them.
7-30 wol sandbetweenourtoes 8/1 £5 hawk moth 9/1 £5
7-40 win ronaldinho 9/2 ashaadd 10/11 NO BET NO VALUE
8-00 wol white deer 2/1 £7 crimson monarch 8/1 £3
8-10 win choral festival 15/2 £4 bunraku 9/2 £6
8-30 wol edraaq 7/4 £6 mariet 9/2 £4
8-40 win swynmor 11/4 £6 last shodow 5/1 £4
9-00 wol footstepsofspring 7/2 £6 warden bond 6/1 £4
Hi Dean,
as ever on forums you always get one or two or three who are best not saying anything at all, but they can`t help it for whatever reason. I know i speak for most us of us when i say how much we appreciate the time and effort that you are putting into the horses and forex tips.
Cheers, Larry. I’ve put it on Google Drive. Here’s the link
@Greg – Jason may have a way of sharing spreadsheets in the forum, but failing that a good way to do it is to create a spreadsheet on google docs (now called Google drive) and then share the link in the forum. So long as access is not set as private everyone with the link can access the document.
Keep up the good work guys!
Larry
only just realised we had a winner and a 3rd on the value bets both 16/1 (early am prices)
@johnnyd tip exchange/olbg and many more im sure we are all aware of them but what we have on here and i hope i speak for most of us is a small community who all try to work together to make our betting profitable. And if you find that picking winners is so “easy” your more than welcome to join us. Dean
Thanks Dean, It’s never easy to pick winners! You do a great job. I’ll post some selections tomorrow, if I do half as well as you then I’ll be doing ok. Keep up the good work! Johnnyd
Hi Greg,
Whenever you are ready is just fine.
Hi Dean,
I wasn’t watching the belated 3.40 but in spite of your selection I had layed ‘Robbie’, earlier success was under James Revely. I regularly lay any horse Andrew Thornton rides in Hurdles.
Sadly jock is injured in that fall. Fortunately Brendan Powell has been released from Hospital following his earlier fall. The way meeting is going he might return return to take up his ride in the 17.10 !
5 from 7 at Stratford. Superb.
No problem, Dean.
For all the bad luck at Southwell today, at Stratford its completely the opposite – 4 winners so far. And Bobowen is being backed as though defeat is out of the question
thats the 2nd one today fell at the last when clearly gonna win.
thanks for what your doing greg im sure it can help us in the long run
No problem. It’ll be a couple of days though before the place prices are finished.
Once again today the wins are spread between the TR and 2ndR, with the 2ndR having better BFSPs.
Looks promising for the 2ndR betting
@Greg, I would really appreciate the spreadsheet. At risk of being cheeky, if you are going to add the place prices anyway, could I have it after you have done so? If you are not I will be pleased to receive’ as is’.
This would’ve reduced the initial investment considerably (probably still too many per day for most though). It would’ve also been possible to bet one race at a time with the objective of stopping once the required profit was made.
Hello All, Whilst Dean is giving some top tips, good work Dean., Maybe you should all try backing some selections that you pick yourself, it’s to easy and becomes to habit forming to rely on tips. If you need to look/rely on tips, then take a look at “Tip Exchange”
It did take a while, spent all day getting it up to date – neck was sore!
As Dean has kindly shared his ratings with us free of charge, I think its the least we can do to try and improve profitability.
I agree that race type, going, field size should be looked at to select the best races.
It could also be beneficial to consider having a price threshold that we don’t go below. For example, approx 80 of the selections go off at less than BFSP of 3, with 28 of them winning (SR 34%). 1pt level stakes on these only would result in P/L -11PTS. This would’ve produced a better overall AVE. BFSP without reducing SR that much.
@Greg, Interesting but not surprising; you have come to similar conclusions to me but based upon a larger and thereby more representative sample. I guess you either have more time to spend on the analysis, type faster or both!
I did suggest a couple of days ago that we might split the work between several of us but no-one came forward. Good man for doing this, thanks for your efforts and sharing.
I had also been looking at whether the second selection would be more profitable, trading a lower strike rate for better odds, leading to a higher ROI.
I agree with you that we need a bigger sample before drawing any conclusions. We also need to look at:- Going Field size Race type as a minimum. I am getting some good results so far but need far more data at present.
@Dean, Do you have this data for past weeks/months based upon your ratings before you began posting? Not sure I should ask for this as it may prove too much to manage but maybe in bite sized pieces…
you’ve put some effort in there Greg,top stuff 🙂
There have been a total of 17 days so far – 6 winning and 11 losing days. 2 of the winning days have been over 30Pts.
Interestingly, the Ave. BFSP for the top rated (TR) is 6.4 but for the second rated (2ndR)it is 8.8 and the Ave. Win BFSP for the 2nd rated is 5.6, which is almost a point better than the Top rated – 4.8.
Its difficult to assess whether this is a long term or short term trend or whether the TR will take over in terms of a better strike rate. It is something to consider and monitor
@Malcom Initially just Win prices but about half way through I started with PL prices. I’ll go back through the first half to input PL prices for completion.
Placing 1pt for each selection at BFSP would produce a P/L of -42Pts.
Whilst this is not a good return, this is only since the 28th June to Date, which is just over 2 weeks and not really long enough to make any serious conclusions.
There have been 408 races that have had a selection in (after NRs) so far. The ratings have produced a SR in these races of 34% and a PL SR of 80%( when backing both selections and not Dean’s Top picks). These strike rates are excellent, however it would appear that many of the selections’ early prices beat BFSP by some distance.
Total Selections – 749 SR – 18% PL – 44% Winners – 137 Placers – 191 Losers – 421 AVE Win BFSP – 5.15 AVE PLSP – 2 (just for half of selections but unlikely to change much, probably reduce)
Something which is noticeable is that the ratings are for almost every race, this could be looked at in more detail to see if certain races are more profitable than others?
Your Comments
@Greg, Great work! Are you inputting Win prices, place prices or both? I think you are spot on using BSP for all the reasons given.
@Dean, Shame about ‘Red not Blue’ had traveled well all through, was very handy when falling to 1st mistake two out. Re ‘Russian Rave’ Jock mistook compulsory marked half f. out for winning post and stopped riding, by the time he realised was passed and lost momentum. He got a 28 day ban, should make him more attentive in future!
Hi guys,
For anyone interested in how the ratings perform to bfsp, I’ve compiled a spread sheet with the results.
A couple of things; it looks at level stakes (1pt) on each selection per rated race at bfsp and not early prices. The reasons for this are that bfsp is a price everyone can get, as some might not be able to get on at early prices. Also early bf prices are subject to reductions with most NR as opposed to book rule4 reductions which only consider NR under 9/1.
Also, where there are ratings NRs no replacements have been used. I thought id try to keep it as simple as possible to produce some raw data to improve upon.
I’ll post some stats in a bit
Heres a few big price selections that might sneak a place
2-10 sou milly malone 18/1 middlebrook 16/1
3-20 str great value 20/1
3-40 sou sky calling 16/1
4-10 sou cool star 20/1
4-50 str gainsborough art 12/1
Thanks Malcom defo worth a try ive put them in a lucky 31
Did anyone see the russian rave race from yesterday he was clearly gonna win and the jockey just stopped riding him. Just seen it on tv the jockey should be shot.
Morning Dean,Guys, I have been looking at the selections to try and find a consistently profitable angle, can’t find a way with the dutched selections yet but maybe onto something with the Best singles; to soon to publish yet but I will risk the ‘Toll of doom’ by sharing my filtered choice from Dean’s Best today.
They are 13.40, 14.20, 16.10, and 16.50. I have backed each selection 1 pt win and 4 pts place. Good luck if you decide to follow.
Cheers again Dean 🙂
Todays top Picks
Sunday 15/7/12 All £10(1pt wins)
1-40 sou red not blue 9/4
2-10 sou the grey one 17/2
2-20 str grand lahou 7/2
2-50 str gambo 4/1
3-10 sou kingdom of munster 17/2
3-40 sou robbie 15/2
3-50 str passato 3/1
4-10 sou billy blade 11/4 NAP
4-20 str fosters road 7/2
4-40 sou safe investment 19/2
4-50 str daneva 4/1
5-20 str bob owen 9/4 NEXT BEST
Good morning guys only a couple of meetings today i toyed with the idea of doing the irish aswell but im just gonna test it first.
Sunday 15/7/12 Ratings
1-40 sou red not blue 9/4 £6 danimix 4/1 £4
2-10 sou the grey one 17/2 £5 le grande cheyne 17/2 £5
2-20 str grand lahou 7/2 £4 traditional bob 6/4 £6
2-40 sou morenito 12/1 £4 gingers lad 17/2 £6
2-50 str gambo 4/1 £4 forty five 11/5 £6
3-10 sou kingdom of munster 10/1 £3 molaise lad 18/5 £7
3-20 str fashionable gal 11/2 £6 enroller 14/1 £4
3-40 sou robbie 15/2 £5 shaloon 7/1 £5
3-50 str passato 3/1 £5 nobunaga 2/1 £5
4-10 sou billy blade 11/4 £8 NAP landenstown star 16/1 £2
4-20 str fosters road 7/2 £6 kings wharf 6/1 £4
4-40 sou safe investment 19/2 £4 spate river 9/2 £6
4-50 str daneva 4/1 £5 lidjo de rouge 7/2 £5
5-10 sou spring in her step 2/1 £5 molly oscar 5/2 £5
5-20 str bob owen 9/4 £7 NEXT BEST free falling 12/1 £3
Yeah its been a good day Dean, well done and thank you, hopefully get some decent ground over the next few weeks!
Gary
Well at least reem star was bet for a place a bit of a consolation but royal rascal just won aswell so top picks well up today
Hi Dean
Unlucky what an half hour that could have been with a bit more luck! Not to worry!
Gary
4-30 2nd
4-35 2nd
4-45 2nd
4-55 2nd
4 in a row unbelievable
media hype for kirthill
Nice one sean, cant believe russian rave just lost that
Cheers Dean great shout as usual thats me taking my 6 points.Finished for the day.Mount Athos won that easy.
yeah thanks johnny im gonna try an find time to go through junes results see if i can see anything in there
NR replacements
3-55 no replacement NO BET
4-35 brockfield
5-40 no replacement full £10 on red highlites
6-40 cross of lorraine
Hi sorry guys just got back in replacements
sir john hawkwood 1-40
Loads of Non Runners today, hope yesterdays disaster wont extend today.
Fluctuate, lieutenant kojack NR any replacements
Cheers Dean
@mark-you’d have been warmer moving to the south pole 🙂
Sun, whats that ? Was that the thing in the sky we saw in april for a few days lol. I moved to the south coast because the weather was supposed to be nicer, should have clarified which country lmao !!!
Thanks again Dean,i don’t mind logging down the race types and number of runners for the winners if it’ll help see any pattern emerge,i’m fine doing it all next week,but then i’m away for 2 weeks,hopefully getting some sun!
Asthere are loads of big price runners to day ive done a few value selections just for fun.
2-10 luhaif 18/1
2-25 TEPMOKEA 22/1
2-35 hurricane lady 12/1
3-00 licence to till 20/1 right step 25/1
3-10 new mirza 20/1
3-25 librano 18/1
3-50 megamunch 28/1
3-55 boomshackerlacker 14/1
6-10 ham roys legacy 16/1
Ok at last here are todays ratings
Saturday 14/7/12
1-40 nwm ardmay 11/1 £4 fluctuate 5/1 £6
1-55 yor silvery moon 15/2 £5 levitate 8/1 £5
2-00 new strictly ballroom 7/5 £6 shrewd 9/4 £4
2-10 nwm olympic glory 15/8 £6 maxentius 10/3 £4
2-15 chs mandi lexi 7/2 boom and bloom 5/6 NO BET NO VALUE
2-25 yor crackentorp 9/1 £5 mount athos 9/1 £5
2-35 new russian rave 6/1 £4 eppernay 4/1 £6
2-40 nwm atlantic sport 12/1 £4 bonnie brae 6/1 £6
2-50 chs orpsie boy 14/1 £4 parisian pyramid 7/1 £6
3-00 yor area fifty one 9/1 £5 kirthill 10/1 £5
3-10 new definightly 8/1 £4 marek 11/4 £6
3-20 nwm society rock 9/2 £6 fire lilly 12/1 £4
3-25 chs our jonathon 5/2 £6 imperial djay 7/2 £4
3-35 yor hamish mcgonagall 11/2 £6 caledonia lady 8/1 £4
5-45 chs lolita lebron 13/2 £5 our boy jack 7/1 £5
6-10 ham rock canyon 7/4 £6 economic crisis 5/2 £4
6-40 ham sovereign street 7/4 £8 cut the cackle 16/1 £2
7-15 ham klynch 6/1 £5 roker park 5/1 £5
7-50 ham qubuh 4/1 £6 mark anthony 11/2 £4
8-20 ham sky high diver 7/2 £4 daring indian 5/2 £6
8-50 ham brown pete 9/2 £5 georgebernardshae 9/2 £5
late again this morning soo many horses here are the top picks first ill have the ratings in about ten mins
all selections £10 (1pt)
Saturday 14/7/12
1-55 yor silvery moon 15/2
2-15 chs boom and bloom 5/6 NO BET
2-25 yor crackentorp 9/1
2-35 new russian rave 6/1
3-10 new definightly 8/1
3-25 chs our jonathon 5/2
3-35 yor hamish mcgonagall 11/2
3-50 new hototo 6/1
4-20 new poet 7/2
4-35 chs lieutennant kojak 7/2 NAP
4-45 yor reem star 9/2 place
4-55 new producer 9/4
5-20 yor royal rascal 7/1
5-30 new sansili 7/2
6-40 ham sovereign street 7/4 NEXT BEST
Morning fellow punters,i was lucky yesterday as i didnt have a bet.But today is another day,gonna follow Dean again an im gonna be stopping at a winner.If that happens in race 1 then so be it if not will increase my stakes by 2 points,then take the profit and wait till tomorrow.
@Dave the best place where you can get great stats is Aidrian Massey i did have them but when my laptop got updated the muppet wiped all my data off.Try looking for him like i say his stats are incredible. Good luck today guys.
Adrian Massey has not done ratings for at least 18 months
Morning Dean
Do you have a spreadsheet with the past selections on….If you have I have next week off and would have the chance to take a look at the Race Types and a few other things to see were we are winning and losing…….would take to much time to go back over all the posts and input them manually….if you don’t maybe someone else does……….if not it would have to be something that is started so would be a while before we have any worthwhile data
Adrian Massey has not done ratings for over 18 months
Morning all
Well I was up yesterday overall. I use the ratings as a guide and with some other information try and pick two or three decent bets. Yesterday I had deans nap which duly obliged (thanks dean) and had deepsand to place. I try and find 8 runner races for the place betting as on betfair if there is a non runner you still get the 3 places paid.
Dean im very disappointed that you didn’t give me the winner of all 14 races yesterday. Must try harder!! 🙂
Good morning guys yes i agree a pretty bad day all round its very difficult when there are so many good horses (usually the festivals and saturdays) but i also think we were a bit unlucky. On the ratings out of 27 races we had 22 places(1st,2nd,3rd) ive been reading what you guys were saying about betting to place and as Gaz said i think the strike rate/or the odds would have to be quite a bit higher to make significant profit but if anyone does have the time to do the research that would be appreciated. Another thing i would like to research but simply dont have the time is the type of race that wins most, the ones that win least, I know the ratings do work but if we could get the stats we could probably eliminate a lot of races were we lose so any volunteers would be much appreciated also. Thanks be back in a few hours with todays ratings. Dean
Guys
I have said this before on Brian’s page.
Gambling is gambling, u are going to have losing days and lots of them and if u can’t learn to accept that then this prob isn’t for u.
I’m sure Dean and others are well aware it was a losing day but it serves no purpose in coming on here and rubbing it in.
Dean will publish his results weekly/monthly and u have to look at the overall picture not 1 or 2 days results.
Tomorrow is another day and u move on. thanks for taking the time to share ur tips Dean and good luck tomorrow.
terrible day !!!!!!! – conditions ? – or just a bad day at the office ?
not the best Peter,but i suppose that’s the nature of gambling,(and Friday the 13th to boot),ah well,had a good week besides,keep yr chins up everyone,these things happen in this wonderful sport….cheers Dean,we’ve had some great days with your selections,and i know we’ll have many more 🙂
any body else had a very bad day, or is it only me, lost alot of points, and money.
@Steve Yes, I only do internet or phone, I don’t know how mobile might differ, presume it is a different site from your comment. You have to go onto their site to access this, you cannot for instance open a betslip for selections through an odds comparison site like ‘oddschecker’
@Greg
I have been looking @ strike rate and prices in place market over recent days too. I do not yet have a strategy or view on best approach, it is ‘work in progress’ but I hope to find a profitable angle. It is a lot of research and we may be duplicating effort.
If we can agree on what we are looking for is anyone interested in sharing the work-load as well as the outcome? If enough of you guys step forward we could maybe do one day each?
Hi Malcolm I use bet365 mobile and I’ve tried to do forecasts on there but can’t seem to get them up. Are you talking about their main site?
At last a second place that we wanted Go on elusive kate
Good afternoon Guys, Placing REVERSE FORECASTS. and determining if they are value before placement. An update on correspondence I had with Gaz yesterday.
You can place these on-line @ Bet365 (other bookies are available but most only do SP so you cannot decide if the bet is value). Go to B365 site, select the race, scroll down below the list of runners. You need to do 2 separate forecasts. Tick 1st for sel. A and 2nd for sel. B, click on ‘Add to betslip’ Then repeat, switching 1st and 2nd around.
Look at the betslip, this will then show the return for £1.00 stakes. If you think it is value enter your stake and place bet. If you are betting in the live market the price may change frequently and you will need to accept change and place bet before it changes again.
However, you need not wait until Live market; if you are confident in Dean’s selections and want to place a rev. forecast do it early – they offer Best Odds Guaranteed. Shame ‘City Image’ didn’t bag 2nd for me in the 2.25…
Have fun
Malcolm
Thanks for that Greg, that’s an excellent strike rate, my concern would be that the place only market is such narrow margins that 50% would probably break even or there abouts??
Hi guys, Currently working through all selections since the 28th June to see what the p/l is at bfsp. Interestingly the strike rate for all selections to place is just shy of 50%.
Thats only up to and including the 8th July
Cheers Greg
Tell me about it Dean – think a bloke called Alex asked about place only betting. Said to paper trade and let us know. Think he might only be doing it on the top picks though.
Paper trading placed. i wss hoping someone might go over past history with places and it sounds like they are. i would love to trial it myself but i am only a few weeks old with gambling and prob have too many trials on the go already
2nd &3rd again in the first dont know how many we had testerday
Gaz i personaly use fx pro but theres loads to choose from just open a demo account and study baby pips
some replacements
1-20 nwm savannah days 10/1 to replace perfect step
1-50 nwm mince 4/1 to replace sholan
3-00 the obvious one would be golden lilac but i think elusive kate has a chance of a place @9/2 to replace chachamaidee
Dean, ahhh right, excellent – I hadn’t realised you could just sort of cap your losses or profits using the software. That IS handy and good to know then. Where do you do these trades through then?
Dean, any replacements for Perfect Step 13:20 NWM and Sholaan 13:50 NWM? Cheers
I wouldn’t have the neccesary cojonas or bank to do that mate, but well done if its comes off.
Gaz on a lot of my trades yes you do have to keep an eye on it as im dipping in and out of the markets very quickly but as long as you have your stop loss and take profit set correctly then you can pretty much initiate the trade and leave it alone. ive just opened a trade about 20 mins ago (sell gbp/usd) after 5 mins i could have took a £100 profit at the moment its £120 but ive moved my stop loss up from £2000 to just £180 and i will just let it ride as im confident it will hit at least 1.539 which will give me a £2100 profit and if it does happen to go the other way ive lost £180
Dean, I’d love to make a tenth of what you make on the forex. Just really don’t know how to go on with it. I know you said read up on baby pips etc. But whne you’re doing it, I presume it’s something you have to watch avidly. Not like you can put on at like 8am, then go back at 9am to see how it’s going cos you could have lost a fortune right?
well fair play to you Dean,and to your dad for having the foresight to teach you early,i sincerely hope it continues,i’ve dipped my toe in it a few years ago,but only with a very small bank,a friend gave me a copy of early bird trading system…it’s a bloody minefield in there!
And cheers for pointing out snow angel yesterday 🙂
its just second nature to me now johnny my father was teaching me to trade futures at 12 yrs old
Well i finished 8 points up on the ratings sorry guys i just didnt have time to post NR replacements but sounds like most of you banked some decent points. I also had a £50 ew on snow angel but that doesnt count in the p/l Bit of a lottery today so many good horses i will be playing cautiously
Cheers once again Dean,hopefully no interruptions for me today,good luck everyone…been looking at your forex page,hell fire,it’s maybe aswell I could never make as much as you’ve made,I’d have gone out like Jon Entwhistle a long time ago 🙂
7-40 chs lady ibrox 2/1 ask the guru 10/11 NO BET NO VALUE
8-10 chs nicefyoutotellme 7/2 £7 deepsand 11/1 £3
8-40 chs party royal 9/2 £4 slipstream angel 2/1 £6
9-10 chs hydrant 13/2 £5 party line 6/1 £5
i look at top selections and rated horses then if can get a good price above 3.0 on betfair i back it to get placed
Interesting idea Lee,there are loads seem to make the frame,do you just place bet the top selections or both rated horses?
morning everyone dean good work again i backed a few of the horses to get placed again, was in profit after the afternoon races so decided to stop but then had 1 more bet on jane lachette in 7:55 finished the day 10 points up good luck everyone lee
Hey dean ur a legend got 4 out of five i picked from ur selections yesterday thanks for ur time and effort lets hope today is more of yesterday luck :)))))
Good Morning Johnny, it was just one of those days yesterday, apart from the first at newmarket eveything else went wonky lol. Decided to do the laying system cos i couldn’t get a winner or was missing them, busy etc. Had four straight profits on the laying, now on a losing run of ten races. Boy its a bumpy ride lol, to top it all didnt dee the post about snow angel until after the off, missed it by a matter of seconds. Have a great day and be lucky.
Morning Mark,good job I cut the grass yesterday,it seems we’ve had summer for this year..how did everyone do yest? I was flitting in and out,ended up 4 points to the good,brilliant spot with snow angel Dean,good luck to everyone today
Morning all, Having looked outside and noticed the miserable weather, it looks like a laying day today unless you know of a few horses with webbed feet lol. Have a good day everyone and be lucky.
Best Regards
Mark W.
Dean, so generous, only recently followed you – great shout Snow Angel, thanks
Hi Dean any suggestions for a replacement for tiger cub 845? Just noticed its a non runner. Thanks Dave
Snow Angel at 12/1 thank you so much Dean.
by the way i meant to replace jet acclaim with snow angel in the top picks lmao i wish
Think i was speaking to johnny at the time when i mentioned it hope all you guys were on snow angel how they made bint youzmain favourite from stall 10 is beyond me
Cracking shout on Snow Angel Dean, Wasn’t in your picks but you said it had a good chance. Backed at 12s earlier!
Snow Angel romps home, WD Dean! 🙂
Good shout on Snow Angel!
Malcolm,
I could be wrong, but if you were quoted a price before the off, it’s more likely to be something similar to the tote exacta rather than a forecast. Both are similar bets other than for the reason we’re discussing really. And obviously a reverse forecast is two x straight forecasts.
Hi Gaz, Many thanks for trying to answer my question, I will try that approach. When I have placed f.casts b4 I found some bookies would quote a price (Bet365 were one) whereas others were based upon SP. I wanted a price to determine if the bet represented value. I can do the maths if I know the formula……
Hi Malc,
I wasn’t on the 3.15 but I was on the 3.45 when No Poppy was just nudged out of 2nd at the line. Grrr.
As for calc’ing forecasts – I don’t think the man on the street can because there’s things like draw bias that comes into too. A “dividend” is declared post race finish depending obviously on the 1st 2 home then other determining factors too.
As a rough guide, I do (stake x odds of 1st + Stake) x odds of 2nd – original stake. The bit in brackets is essentially what you’d return for a win bet. So it’s win bet x 2nd placed odds minus original stake. This normally gets you near as damn it.
Hi Guys, Enjoying this, everyone is so helpful, gets us through the bad days. Glad to have a winner as I missed the 13.20. Am Dutching for Level Stakes on the Bot. 15.15 would have made a great R.Fcast, was anyone on? Does anyone know how to manually calculate Rev. Fcast odds? Tried asking Bookies but can’t find anyone over 50 still taking the calls..
Hi Dean, gr8 work as always yesterday, i have decided to back all of your ratings races, 2horse selections ad finitum, you said previously it was your most successful route. you recently said that you called it a day at 8pts or so, is this a recent development for you? The reason i ask is that previously you said that the ratings route was ave.’ing about £65 per day,was this when / with you betting on all ratings races? Just a query, as i generally spend an hour or so putting everything on in the morn at hopefully bog/best prices!
@Alex – not a bad idea Alex, paper trade it and let us know how it goes?
good luck for rest of afternoon guys gotta take the wifey out for lunch before she lynches me.
And the NAP romps it Deano!!
1st winner again Dean 🙂
Hello All,
Dean, do you rate all race types e.g. Handicaps, maidens, sellers etc or only the races with a lot of past historical data?
I only ask because maybe the ratings work best for certain types of races and not so well for others.
Also, have you ever calculated your P/L to BFSP?
Cheers Greg
Cheers guys your right im online about 16 hours a day
couple of NRs
1-50 replace sir prancelot with chillworth icon
6-30 replace jet acclaim with breezily
and talking of value selections with jet acclaim out i think snow angel has a cracking chance plum draw and currently 12/1
@Dean-as Gaz n Gary say,its entirely your call,you do more than enough as it is,plus you have the forex aswell now,like the lads above say, the info you post is greatly appreciated,and it’s there for folk to use as it suits us…
we’re all individuals 🙂
Hi Dean I’m with Gaz on this one,you give a lot of horses out and people should use them as they see fit and try to build there banks, there is no get rich quick scheme with higher priced horses they are generally there prices for a reason, but also there can be value with them. People need to be aware though that with big prices the strike rate goes lower and that barren runs can be longer and people are quick to start complaining when things aren’t going well! There are so many variables with horse racing and even more when you are aiming at longer odds horses! Just ensure you don’t take your finger off the pulse Dean whilst looking at the other things as all the lads on here know how much time you invest. Good luck with whatever you decide. Gary
Dean, if people just want your top picks, they have them, if people want your ratings picks, they have them. If people want the two selections from the races you pick for your top picks, they can combine the two. It’s up to them – I don’t see that you should have to do anymore than you already do my good man! I know you want to help, believe me you help tremendously! As I see it, people can take your ratings picks and top picks and mix/do with them as they see fit surely? If you want to add some value selections for the likes af Dave too – then that’s entirely your prerogative my good fellow 🙂
Dave barnett is asking for bigger price selections which i did try a few days ago anyone got any opinions on posting some value selections? i know we have a lot of selections already would this be too much???
Hi Gaz that was another thing i was going to mention quite a few rfc coming in lately something to keep an eye on. And i know what your saying about the top picks but a lot of people are put off by dutching so dont know what to do.
@Dean, not sure what to suggest with your “top picks” but the two picks on the ratings are defo the way to go. So maybe you do need to combine them in your top picks. There were a number of RFC’s that came in yesterday (I haven’t been backing them though grrr) one last night with Billy Blade and Comanche Dawn come in at SP of around 39/1!!
@Johnny – morning buddy. Hope you’re all good.
Good luck to everyone today!!
How would top picks go with place only?
Alex the date at the side is when the thread was started.
Good morning to you all,cheers again Dean,bit of an early kick off with the hosses today
@Alex-no idea what the score is with the dates Alex,Dean normally puts his selections up between 8 and 9.30
Actually dezzie that is a very good point about also backing the second horse with the top picks its something ive been considering obviously the ratings are working but then with the top picks its down to me to pick out the ones i think are best from the ratings. I do definately think the top picks need tweaking anymore suggestions would be appreciated. Dean
Todays Top Picks
Thursday 12/7/12
1-20 nwj shantaram 7/4 £10 win NAP
2:25 NWJ fennel bay 8/1 £10 win
2:40 DON a certain romance 4/6 NB
3:00 NWj red cadeaux 11/4 £10 win NEXT BEST
3:35 NWJ fleeting smile 15/8 £10 win
3:45 DON magic destiny 11/2 £10 win
4:20 DON shaloo diamond 13/2 £10 win
4:50 DON fol hollow 11/2 £10 win
5:25 DON dr red eye 12/5 £10 win
6:00 FOL stirring ballad 3/1 £10 win
6:15 EPS colnicas lad 3/1 £10 win
6:30 FOL jet acclaim 7/1 £10 win
6:45 EPS hipster 15/8 £10 win
Good morning here are todays ratings
Thursday 12/7/12
1:20 NWJ valiant 5/2 £4 shantaram 7/4 £6
1:50 NWJ sir prancelot 13/5 £5 gale force ten 16/5 £5
2:05 DON tarantula lady 11/2 £5 terenzium 7/1 £5
2:25 NWJ fennel bay 8/1 £4 hajras 11/2 £6
2:40 DON a certain romance 4/6 burning dawn 6/1 NO BET NO VALue
3:00 NWJ red cadeaux 11/4 £7 dandino 10/1 £3
3:15 DON macchiara 13/5 £5 pearl nation 11/5 £5
3:35 NWJ fleeting smile 15/8 £7 pearl sea 8/1 £3
3:45 DON magic destiny 11/2 £5 no poppy 13/2 £5
4:05 NWJ mukhadram 9/2 £6 mister music 8/1 £4
4:20 DON shaloo diamond 13/2 £4 ultimate destiny 9/4 £6
4:40 NWJ cardinal 19/1 £3 gorgeous goblin 7/1 place £7
What is the story with the dates beside the posts 07.09.12 while the tips are for the 11.7.12 What time do the tips usually come through
great work dean, thx for sharing this info with us.. done a few of your selections with the bigger prices to get placed which paid of
lee
Dezzie i ended up 5 points up yesterday dutching.Like Dave said he stopped at a profit it depends on what you can afford.Remember the most important thing in racing discipline.Only bet what you can afford to lose,ive seen to many people end up on the poor side.I think the best thing to do is papertrade until you want to find out how to split your stakes.Im gonna try to get my head round this laying lark too. Whatever you decide to do good luck. Sean
Dezzie i following the 2 selections in one race and follow Deans advice about spliting the £10. i usually place the bets in chunks so I will place them for the first seven races and see how they get on. Yesterday for example i was up by 10 points before the night racing started so stopped cos i was happy with the points. i do have a smart phone though that allows me to do this whilst out and about and on dinner breaks etc so it might be tricky for everyone to do the same thing Dave
Dean, is it possible if u could give me daily selections for big-priced horses, so I can hit the bookies hard, your selections look promising, and what do I need to do about the footie syndicate. Will Jason send mean e-mail?.
I have been following the two top rated horse selections, dutching £10 over the 2 horses, and have managed the following over the last 3 days:
I was wondering how different people are using Dean’s ratings, I am currently just using his top tips and ended up down today, did anyone who follows all his ratings backing both finish up, I was thinking backing both horses but only in his top tips and see how it goes because backing all is to expensive for me.
Your Comments Really good day today Dean following your 2 in each race.Much appreciated for letting us use your selections,your a star.
cliff
Hi dean what is this forex thing your referring to I’ve tried googling it but nothing makes sense I no u said its for pros but could u just explain it in Lehmanns terms for me cheers pal
Johnny have stopped for day. only did 3 suitable races and made a nice profit, so I’m happy and have left other 2 races 7.20 and 9.20 kemp…. Will give my fingers a rest ready for tomorrow. will have look at sporting life late morning to see if any suitable races… onward and definitely upwards 🙂
well i stopped at 8 points but gutted i missed stupenda.
Hi Dean Great day today. 10 points up overall so just logged out of betfair and am going to relax for the evening and keep an eye on the rest of the ratings to see how they go. Great work Dave
Your Comments No problem Mark, lets hope deans as good at forex trading. 🙂
Mark i will post my best trade of the day between 7-8 am every morning and sometimes another on afternoon if there is anything i think is worth having a go at.
Dean..How do I get your tips please..I could do with a bit of luck..cheers
Dan, thanks for that, got account with IG. Cheers mate
Hi guys for anyone thats interested the forex and footie page is now open. Dean
Your Comments
@mark-yeah,Brians takes ages to do,not sure anyone could do it for a full days racing,the keyboard would melt
Brian/Johnny sorry post doesn’t make sense at end.. 2.50 catt fav about 4/1 and then next 3/4 9-11/1 seems to work brilliantly if first 4-6 horses all around 4/1-6/1 ish 🙂 roll on kempton…. Just doing basic £2 stakes to start as lots finger work!!!!! bet angel looks so complicated Started to put bets on about 20 mins before race as takes ages…
Well with catterick off and 8 points banked on the ratings im paper trading the rest
Hi Brian/ Johnny Tried the “lay the field” today on ling2.30, catt 2.50 and 3.50 (all under 14fl. didn’t quite get sums right as did 1.8 for £4 but overall so far made money and looking good for kempton. Noticed only race that lost money was one with 2.50 which had funny odds fav at about 4/1 and the rest 9-11/1 whereas other two races had first 4/5 horses all about same oddsish may adjust system to suit but so far “I’m in the money” 🙂 🙂
wow just forget the top picks and back all the 2nd rated lol also why i put no bet on the 2-40 ireally dont know brains gone to mush
Dan, i tried opening account last week, 2 reasons given for being refused account, self employed and discharged bankrupt.
Dean, guess who only did top picks today lol
Try IG index or GKFX, I was discharged two years ago and have accounts with both,
Dean
I am with you on the Bondesire race couldn’t believe it! I never got to see the still of the photo on the line.
Gary
🙂
always seem to have a good start lately its just the rest of the day that f***s it up
yeah gaz same as bondesire on monday as long as i live i wont beleive that 1 got beat
yeah,backed them as singles for similar amounts…you’ve had some great early results lately
@Johnny – ahhh ok, cheers.
@Dean – great stuff my friend. I could’ve sworn the Sixties just got up then!
Yeah johnny 2 nice rfc just shame they werent the other way around for the top picks
top start again Dean 🙂
@Gaz-if you check back up,i think you seem to have mixed bits of both systems up there Gaz,i’ll email you when the afternoon racings over if that’s ok
@Johnny, cheers for the guide mate. So then I combine that with doing it on all the races that meet the criteria you’ve previously suggested right? i.e. 12-14f races where the horses are all similar odds and 3/1 or bigger?!?! And then lay every horse at the prices you said before?!?! Might be worth emailing me on gazcoyne@hotmail.co.uk so we don’t clog Dean’s page up haha!
cheers Jason,
@bill- in my humble opinion,not really Bill,you can load up any prices before hand and click keep in play
Sorted now Johnny, should be up there. Thanks for the detailed explanation
put up a quick guide to laying on betfair earlier,it seems to have disappeared..the curse of lorna strikes..any idea what happened with it Jason?
Spoke to jason and he is going to put a new page up for the footie n forex
replacement in the 8-20 officer in command 7/1 to replace courtesey call
I’m up for the football only, can’t do forex ( discharged bankrupt ).
Being a discharged bankruptcy should’nt stop u getting an account mark.
Hi Dean
I would also be keen to look at the forex and the football.
Thanks and keep up the great work you do.
Martin.
Hi Dean
I’d be keen to have a look at the forex.
Craig
Hi Johnny, Apologies for jumping on the bandwagon but i too am a novice in the intricacies of laying, although i understand the principle. Is it neccessary to have some kind of bot (automatic machine) running on betfair ?, and could you recommend or suggest a suitable one ? Cheers Bill
yeah sean approx 3 points down on each
was just gonna replace the Nr in the 9-10 but now it seems they’re all non runners boycotting the race or something.
Your Comments non runner in the 8.20 any substitute for this one Dean. Thanks
cliff
Hi and morning geants how are we today.Did we all incure loses last night.My spreadsheet went west and lost info.Ive looked at my Daq account and it seems to be down a few points,is that correct or not? Cheers Sean
very interested in your forex info dean
Rob if your not a million % sure what your doing with forex i would implore you to study Baby pips and when your sure you understand it all then go through it all again. plus while your learning most sites offer demo accounts which can be very helpfull.
Defo interested dean in Forex, i have been looking nervously i ma add, at this alot, but there is alot to take in, need a hand for this i think!
Betfair fine now Johnny, ready when u are.
Morning everyone, first post on here although I’ve been following all your comments etc for about a week now. Just wanted to know how you use Dean’s tips and which of his two sets is most profitable. I tried top picks on Sunday and lost out then Monday his dutching selections and came out 4 1/2 points up (£10 stakes) then lost again yesterday using the same selections. The laying the field seems like a good idea which I’m trying out on the 2:30 at Lingfield. By the way I use Betting Assistant from Gruss Software, £6 per month and dead easy to use.
Cheers mark,sounds like i got off lightly compared to you..betfair’s back on now,so here goes…apologies for stating the obvious on a few points,now put those fags out and stop talking at the back please …
As Brian said on an earlier post,when you lay a horse (or anything else),you become the bookie,and state it won’t win,so for instance in the 2.00 at lingfield today,if you click on the 3rd fav,Desert Red lay box,the lay box is the pink one,at the mo it comes up at 7 to 1,(which is actually 6 to 1,as betfair use decimal prices,the extra 1 is your stake) ,and put 2 quid in the stake box,it tells you your liability if the horse wins,is 12 quid. If it doesn’t win,you get 2 quid minus the betfair commission,which on mine,they take 5p off every quid i win.
The beauty of Betfair is you can put a lower price in the odds box,just click and delete the original one and put any price in,including decimal points if you wish,so say i put 3.4 in,the liability is now 4.80 for 2 quid,but when you confirm the bet,it will ask you if want to cancel in play or keep in play.
If you cancel,as soon as the race starts,if the bet isn’t matched,it will cancel it,if you click keep in play,as the race unfolds,the price fluctuates depending how the horse is running,and if it reaches your price,you’ll get the bet matched.
What Brian’s system does (and to a lesser extent,the one i posted yesterday) is take advantage of anyone betting in play that thinks a horse is running well,or ones that might be coasting with a few furlongs to go,so prices will come down in running,and it would match all the bets that people put on different horses who are in with a chance,so you’re hoping as many as possible are in with a shout and lots of the in play bets being matched,as there can only be one winner.
Hope that helps 🙂
Today feels like a good day, some many punters with identical picks, in some races, I may just go with a cheeky lucky 15 pick today. Great stuff Dean, been following ur picks now and steadily building the bank.
Hi guys Jason has kindly offered to give us another page for forex and we could probably use it for our football system aswell could you let me know how many would be interested in the forex trading. Thanks Dean
Had the same problem here with Betfair, thanks for clearing that up. Glad to hear you had a great evening. My mrs has discovered Dallas 2012, 5 hours of it last night, couldn’t find a rope strong enough to suspend myself from the ceiling, she wouldn’t have noticed anyway bless her.
Cheers again Dean,
@Gaz- Hi Gaz,was gonna do the lay thing earlier,but having trouble logging onto betfair this morning,it keeps logging me out,anyone else having issues with it? Thought it might be easier to understand if folk have their betfair tab opened up at the same time..weird,maybe Dean’s tips have flipped it over the edge!
Just rang the buggers,there’s a problem with the site,if its ok i’ll run through it when the site’s back up,hopefully before todays racing starts,back to normal with the amount of meetings today chaps,summers here!
The concert was really good thanks Gaz,a young girl sang someone like you by Adele,it was brilliant,the ear plugs came out for that one 🙂
Cheers Dean. Top Bloke
Todays Top Picks
Wednesday 11/7/12
2-00 lin vexilium 11/2 £10 win
2-10 yar the sixties 5/2 £10 win
2-40 yar cappielow park 6/5 £10 win nap
2-50 cat serene oasis 5/1 £10 win
3-20 cat kians delight 3/1 £10 win
3-50 cat untold melody 9/2 £10 win
4-50 cat emeralds spirit 11/4 £10 win
5-00 lin bay laurel 5/2 £10 win
5-10 yar tinseltown 15/8 £10 win (next best)
5-20 cat roc de prince NB
6-40 wor miss midnight 8/1 £10 win
7-20 kem black cadilac 9/2 £10 win
8-10 wor billy blade 4/1 £10 win
@Johnny,
Having read a few posts on this thread, I understand it a LITTLE better now, but still nto fully getting the laying thing. So If you can email me (gazcoyne@hotmail.co.uk) or post it on here in proper laymans (thicko for me) terms, I’d appreciate it.
Cheers mate.
P.s. how was the concert?!?!
Good morning here are todays ratings
Wednesday 11/7/12
2-00 lin vexilium 11/2 £5 arte del calcio 5/1 £5
2-10 yar the sixties 5/2 £5 uncomplicated 3/1 £5
2-20 cat fly fisher 9/2 jamesbos girl 10/11 fc NO BET NO VALUE
2-30 lin the cornish cowboy 8/1 £5 musically 8/1 £5
2-40 yar cappielow park 6/5 emperors waltz 16/5 NO BET NO VALUE
2-50 cat serene oasis 5/1 £4 lucky money 7/2 £6
3-00 lin marvo 8/1 £5 reaction 13/2 £5
3-10 yar medhyaar 4/11 macchiara 13/2 fc NO BET NO VALUE
3-20 cat kians delight 3/1 £7 herostatus 9/1 £3
3-30 lin gallipot 4/1 £5 lindseys dream 9/2 place £5
5-10 yar tinseltown 15/8 £7 suzis a class act 12/1 £3
5-20 cat roc de prince 4/6 aliante 4/1 NO BET NO VALUE
5-30 lin mister mackenzie 13/2 £3 jack of diamonds 11/8 £7
6-10 wor well green 6/1 £3 prince of denial 13/8 £7
6-20 kem lady mango 7/1 dvinsky 9/1
6-40 wor miss midnight 8/1 £4 heezagrey 5/1 place £6
6-50 kem nardin 5/1 £4 hoodna 3/1 £6
7-10 wor catch me up 7/1 £3 glen gyle 5/4 £7
7-20 kem black cadilac 9/2 £6 street power 8/1 £4
7-40 wor persian herald 3/1 £5 pearls legend 5/2 £5
7-50 kem decana 5/1 £6 frederick william 9/1 £4
8-10 wor billy blade 4/1 £6 commanche dream 7/1 £4
8-20 kem courtesy call 9/1 £4 silent moment 3/1 £6
8-40 wor changing the guard 9/4 £6 dormouse 7/1 £4
8-50 kem russian ice 22/1 £4 rio grande 10/1 £6
9-10 wor princeley player 7/2 £6 cabimas 10/1 £4
9-20 kem do more buisness 4/1 £6 hilbre court 10/1 £4
Or maybe he has discovered the holy grail of a bet you can’t lose, lol. Come on we can dream can’t we ?
lot of info to sift through today. Btw to get all features of bet angel works out to 12.50 a month if you subscribe annually
I think deans late for work this morning haha
Yep, blue link underneath Lay heading says all.
same here, just got to get my head around the software lol. never guess i work in I.T. lol
Waiting for Dean, our lord and master !
Lol. Was looking into that laying last night. looks promising. Just gotta get the bets backed.
Ha ha. I came accross betangel but not tried it yet. i read somewhere tho there is an option on betfair to lay all which might be handy
Where is everybody?
Hiya Mark,didn’t do Brians lay the field yesterday,had a phone call at the same time,so didn’t get the bets on,looks a brilliant idea on paper,as a few have said,there’s only one hoss that wins each race.
And the concert went well,thanks 🙂
Johnny/Brian How did your “lay the field” go today Johnny? Hopefully as good as the concert or better (profit paid for ear plugs?) I am thinking if my previous post is correct about liabilities I may go for a test run on the 2.50 at Catterick (a tight course I believe) and then on the 4.20 as long as odds are ok. Hopefully after those 2 races i will be in profit and dry pants!!:)
Brian May not need the extra absorbent pants after all. I hope i am right that the liabilities are as follows Level 1 lay all horses at @3.2 for £2 =total liabilities £4.40 3 horses to come in @3.2 and profit made Level 2 lay all horses @ 2.7 for £2 = total liabilities £3.40 2 horses to come in @ 2.7 and profit made Level 3 lay all horses @ 2.3 for £2 = total liabilities £2.60 2 horses to come in @ 2.3 and profit made Level 4 lay all horses @ 1.7 for £5 = total liabilities £3.50 2 horses to come in @ 1.7 and profit made Level 5 lay all horses @ 1.5 for £5 = total liabilities £2.5 2 horses to come in @ 1.5 and profit made Total liabilities if only 1 horse comes in at each level is £16.40 So worst case scenario is £16.40 loss overall which is extremely remote if not impossible if minimum sp is 4.0 or over at bf sp and there are at least 3 horses sp of 4.0-6.0 I hope i have got it right? Is there a tool/ap that is free you can recommend to save my little pinky all the typing?
Hi Brian Please accept my apologies for the poor grammar in last post! should be “Looks a bit complicated to paper trade but if done live what sort of bank would you recommend as a minimum?
i think you can use software called betangel. there is a free basic version.
Mark
That’s the way lay all horses at the prices. Your liability will always be the same as there can only be 1 horse that wins I’m not positive on the liability Mark but i think it is just over £16 to £2 stakes! Good luck with it if you go ahead!
Gary
Brian. am i right in thinking that you lay all horses..@3.2 for £2 then same horse again @2.7 for £2 and so on presumably as you say tight angled courses best for handicaps up to 14f etc. Looks a bit complicated to paper trade but id done live what sort of bank would you recommend. what would the liability be for one race of 8 runners or more? perhaps a bank to allow for 5 races loosing in a row would be sufficient? I have laid in past but thought of every horse and the several different prices as well……. may need some extra absorbent pants? in fact a few pairs?
Brian, thanks for the response it is clearer to me now. I have one more question without anyone thinking i am going totally off subject to Dean’s page but would all lays be matched before the off or is this a system that should be left to run in running. Thanks in advance D
@Dezzie, LAY EVERY HORSE, so each horse will have 5 lays at the prices 3.2, 2.7, 2.3, 1.7, 1.5, at the suggested stakes the liability is £16.40.
So if you have 10 horses you will have placed a total of 50 lays at those prices, your liability will still be 16.40, as there is only one winner of the race.
Brian, I’m just looking at your system and am confused, are you laying every horse at those odds or just the first 5 at those odds? what would you liability be? I’m just looking at a race now and by laying the first horse @3.2 for £2 the next horse @2.7 £2 the 3rd @2.3 £2 and so on for just the first 5 shows all green returns. I am just proper confused.
I agree 100percent with johnny best forum by a country mile work all day so do my bets at the weekend mixture of Deans and Brians but follow all threads when I come home thinking of taken two weeks holiday and having a real go of it maybe bring my retirement forward (I wish) keep up the good work everybody
yeah really missing lorna not the same without her/him. Anyway im still not 100% sure but i will give it a go paper trading and see how it goes thanks Brian/johnny.
thats ok with me if you’re sound with it Dean,i’ll do it tomorrow if i survive this shool concert tonight..you’re right,you’ve got a great vibe going on here Dean,well done to yourself,Jason and Brian of course,(can i suggest we get lorna back to add some spice and vitriol again,er, maybe not…..)
p.s. right,where’s me ear plugs 🙂
”Laying The Field” Idea behind this is we become the ‘bookmaker’, do this without emotion!, we are betting the horses to get beat, but selectively at prices we decide not the ‘punter’.
Handicaps up to 12/14 furlongs work best, infact 5f(usually a straight sprint with no bends) are the least profitable, reason being, if a horse blasts out the stalls, it will invariably win without being headed, small tight courses with poor TV angles are a dream!. Watch also if there is a ‘steamer’ especially on the A.W. these gambles rarely miss.
Try to make at sure you have at least 8 runners, with a few horses around the same price. Do not worry if you have one under 3.2 on betfair with others around 4 or 5 , just LAY EVERY horse
3.2, @ £2, 2.7@£2, 2.3@£2, 1.7@£5, 1.5@£5
Best time is around 5 mins before the off, the software that is available make this a painless task.
Watch a few races before you jump in, ‘laying’ is not for everyone, but this method will give you a ‘green screen’ around 90% of the time.
Cheers(better put this on my thread as well!!)
ok johnny no problem
Just my opinion but i think it would be better posted on here for everyone to see. thanks Johnny p.s we must have the friendliest and most helpfull forum on the web
No problem,i’ll try explain it best i can
Dean-i mentioned in an earlier post that i’d meant your good self being compensated after the photo finish you lost out on last night,but my post seems to have disappeared
Hi johnny heres my e-mail look forward to it mate many thanks and much appreciated. smith6082@sky.com
I’d be very interested in that as well Johnny.
either way’s fine with me Sean
Hi Johnny tather than clutter the site can i give you my e-mail,if Jason and Dean dont mind?Im very interested in learning different ways to bet.I would back Deans and on another account i would lay the field once i know what to do. Sean
i’m by no means an expert,but fairly confident i know my around the lay side of betfair,so if anyone’s interested i’ll cobble together a quick run through of it tomorrow,bit stuck for time this evening,as my son is playing double bass at a school do.
Your Comments Hi Dean been looking at your top picks the last 3/4 days and it seems good, only thing is that I back in the morning but cannot get the prices that you quote. Would I be better backing at SP rather than the prices quoted. also do you have your profit/loss backing at S/P
Regards
Bill
@Dean-i was meaning your good self and the photo finish that went against you.I was done and dusted halfway through the evening 🙂
@Gaz-that was the weird thing about that day,i’d been up and down so many times,and at the end it almost felt like the money was an afterthought
Johnny, didn’t you bet £1762? @5/2 that would return £6167, at 3/1 that would return £7047. There were ten pairs of expensive pants haha! 😉
Dean – that’s made me feel better, I have no idea how you go about laying horses or what the numbers everyone have been quoting mean!! haha.
Hi guys first and foremost i am a trader but horses are my passion so when it comes to laying i havent got the slightest idea whatt your talking about in theory it sounds great and id love to try it but i think i would need brian or someone with similar experience to really go through it step by step.
@ johnny when you said it doesnt compensate for last night didnt you make a profit. both the ratings and top picks made small profits (2.85) & (3.5)
frightening’s a good word for it Gaz,the hoss was called Amarni or something similar,frankie was on it,came in at 3s,and i had it at 5/2,with bet 365,whoare best odds guaranteed..spent the extra on 10 pairs of new underpants 🙂
Hi Johnny that was a short lived success story…. only UK and Ireland do in play 🙁 ah well onward and upwards…
@Mark s – not sure about in play for usa racing,i’ve only tried it for UK,be worth having a look tho
Johnny, haha – been there too my son! Frightening really isn’t it. I think I might paper trade the idea little and see how we go like.
hey Johnny it looks like a good little system 5f’s lay all at 1.7 if odds nr off 3/1 minimum. just looked at sporting life and loads of races (usa etc ) that are 5f and lots at night. The card on SL give approx odds but b/f are much lower, so if i can may see if card shows odds 7/2 fav etc and b/f odds much lower 2.5/3.0 what odds are like on off for usa racing.. Just a thought do they do inplay?
@Gaz-good point about the prices,personally i’m happy with level stakes,tho admittedly it takes longer to reach 5 or 6 points,i have vietnam type flashbacks with chasing,6 years ago i started an afternoon trying to win 75 quid following favourites or 2nd favs,it went to the last race,9.20 at Kempton,and my bet was £1726,jeesus,still wake up in a cold sweat sometimes thinking about that day!
ok johnny no problem.
Yeah, that’s what I thought Johnny. Plus with Deans selections none of them are ever short priced and so you wouldn’t need massive bets. Of course Dean takes all the credit and more – his selections are incredible! But I think the two ideas combined almost certainly has legs.
Would love to hear your thoughts Dean?
@tony -i didn’t ! just doing them all one by one,and got a phone call from my son’s school,saying he wasn’t in school,as he hadn’t signed in for the afternoon,so had an rather heated argument with the silly lady (bet she was called lorna),as he is in school but doing rehearsals for a music show tonight,that’s 3 times this term the fools have rang me,and it’s been the same bloody reason every time..sorry,rant over!
@gaz- sounds a top idea,but Dean takes 110% of any credit,i’m a mere mortal! You’re spot on though,it does seem to include a couple of early winners most days
Dean/Johnny, Just a thought but how about combining Deans selections with the “Favourite backers” type system to a ascertained profit level? In the selections theres always at least one winner, pretty much always one early doors too. I know it means having a bigger starting bank and winning a percentage of that bank each day, but it does kind elminate backing them all and perhaps losing some of the margin in later races. What do you think guys?
Your Comments let us know how you get on johnny in the 3-15 laying the field.
Yep, gr8 start, well done, any subs for the N/R’s Dean?
1st 2 races,what can i say Dean 🙂
@Mark S, yes its called ‘laying the field’, LAY EVERY horse, at those prices before the race and keep in play, there is software available that makes this an easy process, there is courses that are very profitable, but I will leave that for you to find out. Cheers hope you enjoy the ‘green screen’
Apologies,tried it for the 3.15 Hcp
@mark s …think its lay every horse and keep in play,just trying it for the 2.45,it takes a while,and double check you haven’t pressed any numbers twice!
very good start Dean,probably doesn’t compensate fully for last nights but its a winner 🙂
Hi brian Not quite sure i get your drift for laying. do you lay every horse at all those odds and keep in play? or just any horse that are those odds at the off?
Hi Dean,for idiots like me i have fancied laying but not too sure how to do it.Can you explain in simple terms lol for me,i will papertrade for a few weeks.I dont understand like 3.2-2.2.7 for 2 and so on. Cheers
cheers Brian,i’ll give it a blast 🙂
@Johnny, here is a better way of ‘laying the field’ most handicap races up to 14 furlongs works best.
LAY @ 3.2 for 2, 2.7 for 2, 2.3 for 2, 1.7 for 5, 1.5 for 5, try it and see, you will be surprised how much you can win every day.
This idea I gave to a friend who has since sold it on, used everyday on another website that concentrate on trading horses.
cheers Dean,here’s a little system i’ve made profit with down the years,feel free to give it a try:
Any 5f handicap race where there is no clear fav (if its 3/1 or lower i leave the race alone unless there are one or two near it in the betting),on betfair,lay every horse at 1.7,you obviously won’t get matched,so click them all to keep in play.
The idea is that with a furlong to go,and if the handicappers done his job,hopefully there are plenty still in with a chance and if you get at least 2 matched bets you’re in profit,i once had a blanket finish and came out with 71 quid,i lay them for £20,so my liability is £14 if only the winner gets matched.
Good luck if you fancy trying it 🙂
Martin i simply couldnt believe it looked like a clear head to me.
Hi kevin i would like to think i am a little more accurate with my trading a 30% strike rate wouldnt really do it for me on forex. a few years ago i had my own financial advisory website and to be honest it was just too much hassle people expect overnight riches and it just doesnt work like that so at the moment im sticking to the horses. If there was enough interest on here i would consider maybe giving a tip a day but as this is a horse racing site i dont know how jason would feel about that. Dean
Dean i thunk jason could give you section for forex Betinfo is a betting site. and finaciak trading is just betting lol. I also dabble in forex and horses. I would be very interested in your Forex tip of the day.
Hi guys ive been looking at higher price horses for a value system for a while now with mixed results. Now im not counting this towards our profits its just paper trading at the moment. i just thought i would share a few of the selections today see how they do. Dean
Value Selections
10/7/12
2-45 wol waabel 16/1 bad draw but c/d winner and 7lb claim defo worth small ew
3-15 wol sir boss 22/1 another c/d winner not done much on turf but back to aw today and maybe ew chance
4-00 pon sos brilliante 80/1 happy on soft and only 9 runners surely must be worth a small ew
4-15 wol aragorn rouge 16/1 back at fave distance and left hand course must surely transfer old form to new yard some time soon EW
8-05 sow basantee 9/1 c/d and going winner ew chance
Your Comments Hello Dean
Very impressed with your ratings suggestions and accuracy, on an earlier post you mentioned that your main day was spent trading “Forex”.
Are you as accurate with “Forex?” and if so will you be offering suggestions with $/GBP movements.
Regards and thanks for your generous offerings.
Kevin Ryan
Hi I have watched the Bondesire/Penny Garcia race at Ripon last night and I still can’t believe that Penny Garcia won. I have watched it several times and it definitely looks like a Bondesire win to me and I didn’t back either of them. Would love to see the judges photograph on the line though.
After the abandonment at pontefract here is a revised top picks you may notice that venegazzu and crystal cove were 2nd on the ratings but they were both equal in there final rating score
Tuesday 10/7/12
2-15 wol almaty express 11/2 £10 win
2-45 wol restless bay 7/2 £10 win
3-15 wol venegazzu 7/2 £10 win
3-45 wol christingle 11/5 £10 win
4-15 wol buaiteoir 9/1 £10 win
5-15 wol basle 5/1 £10 win
6-05 sow crystal cove 9/4 £10 win
6-15 utt cabimas 10/11 NO BET
6-35 sow mrs warren 11/4 £10 win
7-05 dandy warbucks 14/5 £10 win
7-15 utt melu maid 9/4 £10 win
8-15 utt marju king 9/2 £10 win
8-35 sow gracies gift 11/1 £10 win
Think Ponte’s been called off 🙁
Hi Dean
Yeah I watched that as well and couldn’t believe it when the result was called! So I rewatched it a couple of times and still couldn’t believe it!
Gary
..headspace it was called,aptly named.
yeah,and the camera followed it aswell,just to confuse matters…that would been a great pick up for you Dean,also,the one early on was weird,when the horse was about to nick it on the line and sort of jumped at the finish line on the grass and finished 3rd! I’d backed both those buggers….
Did anyone watch the 6-50 ripon where bondesire clearly won but didnt early in the day i had £100 double on megamunch and bondesire at 6/1 well i was jumping around the room going crazy then all of a sudden the race was given to penny garcia. Devastated
Ratings with stakes
Tuesday 10/7/12
2-15 wol almaty express 11/2 £5 marinus 5/1 £5
2-30 pon all on red 8/1 £3 slipstream 11/4 £7
2-45 wol restless bay 7/2 £7 waabel 16/1 £3
3-00 pon tenhoo 4/1 £6 the lock master 9/1 £4
3-15 wol rei doro 9/1 £4 venegazzu 7/2 £6
3-30 pon gowanharry 11/4 £6 celestial dawn 17/2 £4
3-45 wol la pampita 11/5 £5 christingle 11/5 £5
4-00 pon dragonera 13/2 £4 law of the range 7/2 £6
4-15 wol buaiteoir 9/2 £5 resuscitator 4/1 £5
4-30 pon roker park 11/2 £5 ballista 11/2 £5
4-45 wol spithead 5/2 £6 chant 11/2 place £4
5-00 pon awaywiththegreys 6/1 £5 white nile 13/2 £5
5-15 wol basle 5/1 £6 ire ute 11/1 £4
5-30 pon miss ella jade 4/1 £5 al jabreiah 7/2 £5
5-45 wol polar auroras 9/2 £6 huzzah 7/1 £4
6-05 sow dil laney 9/2 £5 crystal cove 7/2 £5
6-15 utt cabimas 11/10 dance tempo 7/2 NO VALUE
6-35 sow mrs warren 11/4 £6 masai king 11/2 £4
6-45 utt mwaleshi 9/4 £4 peaks of fire 6/4 £6
7-05 sow dandy warbucks 3/1 £6 frederick the great 6/1 £4
7-15 utt melu maid 9/4 £6 kings queen 8/1 £4
7-35 sow trusting 9/2 £6 tony hollis 12/1 £4
7-45 utt pickworth 5/1 £6 southway star 13/2 £4
8-05 sow sweetnessandlight 5/1 £4 safe house 13/5 £6
8-15 utt marju king 9/2 £6 kilmore west 7/1 £4
8-35 sow gracies gift 11/1 £4 tunnager grove 10/3 £6
mark w and johhny, mate its nice to earn money the easy way right?almost loads of us wants to do it, the only problem is control……if you have control in betting , youve got a good chance on surviving in these war of attrition…lol….the only worry is if youre winning a lot you intended to get lazy, always on telly and eating a lot( gain weight bwa ha ha ha) that waht happen to me,im only working for an agency on call….if i win big amount, stop working for a couple of weeks, i incurred barrage of winnings morethan my salary every week from december 2011 to march 2012, i really enjoy it alot… for me the bet is still laying on betfair on average youre earning much more than you earn, much easier to find a losing horse than to find a winner .
@ same here Mark,and she has a decent job,so things could be worse,I only have my good looks to get by on ( thank god there’s no photo needed!)
@ thanks again Dean 🙂
Sorry just wondering were the link is to the daily tips…can see these responses but not the tips….are they posted here or somewhere else…..thanks in advance
forgot to include my stakes on the ratings i will post them again with stakes on. Dean
Todays Top Picks
Monday 9/7/12
2-15 wol almaty express 11/2 £10 win
2-45 wol restless bay 7/2 £10 win
3-00 pon tenhoo 4/1 £10 win
3-30 pon gowanharry 11/1 £10 win
3-45 wol christingle 11/5 £10 win
4-15 wol buaiteoir 9/1 £10 win
5-15 wol basle 5/1 £10 win
5-30 pon miss ella jade 4/1 £10 win
6-15 utt cabimas 10/11 NO BET
6-35 sow mrs warren 11/4 £10 win
7-15 utt melu maid 9/4 £10 win
8-15 utt marju king 9/2 £10 win
8-35 sow gracies gift 11/1 £10 win
Sorry there a bit late this morning but here are the ratings
Tuesday 10/7/12
2-15 wol almaty express 11/2 marinus 5/1
2-30 pon all on red 8/1 slipstream 11/4
2-45 wol restless bay 7/2 waabel 16/1
3-00 pon tenhoo 4/1 the lock master 9/1
3-15 wol rei doro 9/1 venegazzu 7/2
3-30 pon gowanharry 11/4 celestial dawn 17/2
3-45 wol la pampita 11/5 christingle 11/5
4-00 pon dragonera 13/2 law of the range 7/2
4-15 wol buaiteoir 9/2 resuscitator 4/1
4-30 pon roker park 11/2 ballista 11/2
4-45 wol spithead 5/2 chant 11/2 place
5-00 pon awaywiththegreys 6/1 white nile 13/2
5-15 wol basle 5/1 ire ute 11/1
5-30 pon miss ella jade 4/1 al jabreiah 7/2
5-45 wol polar auroras 9/2 huzzah 7/1
6-05 sow dil laney 9/2 crystal cove 7/2
6-15 utt cabimas 11/10 dance tempo 7/2
6-35 sow mrs warren 11/4 masai king 11/2
6-45 utt mwaleshi 9/4 peaks of fire 6/4
7-05 sow dandy warbucks 3/1 frederick the great 6/1
7-15 utt melu maid 9/4 kings queen 8/1
7-35 sow trusting 9/2 tony hollis 12/1
7-45 utt pickworth 5/1 southway star 13/2
8-05 sow sweetnessandlight 5/1 safe house 13/5
8-15 utt marju king 9/2 kilmore west 7/1
8-35 sow gracies gift 11/1 tunnager grove 10/3
8-45 utt barton cliche 9/4 stormhoek 4/1
9-05 sow carnac 7/2 ritsi 8/1
9-15 utt solway dandy 9/4 breakoutthebooze 6/1
I’m very lucky in that i have a very supportive wife who gives me encouragement in anything i try. There are people a lot worse off.
and good luck to you for the future aswell..
No problem Mark,yeah,think I’ve tried most of them down the years! A friend and me used to go halves on them,( there’s a thought,set up a site and flog ’em all!) In an ideal world,you probably need maybe half a dozen to see you through different times of the year,different sports etc. It’s the vicious circle of not having the time and space to test them as you’re too busy earning a wage.
Johnny, excuse me for butting in to your conversation, just to say there are some great systems out there, just sorting the wheat from the chaff isn’t too hard. Best ones utilise bookies free bet offers ( football ). Won’t say which in case i’m not allowed to on here. Good luck with the future, i’m in the same boat as you, on reduced hours at the moment and don’t want to go back to it full time. We all have a dream lol
Cheers Gaz,more or less yeah,I also tend to have a look at Brians tips on the other page as the racing starts,and if both Dean and Brian have selected the same hoss I put a bit more on it.
I was 5 and a half points up last night (55 quid) and had a strong feeling about Athenian,Dean had it and it had a great write up on the sporting life site,so I put ten on it and won a further 33,if only all days were that straightforward!
The firm I worked for closed at the start of July,so I decided not to jump straight back into work for at least a month,to see if there’s another way to get by than the drudgery of 9 to 5,if I could make a grand or 1200 each month that would be more than enough. I did it for around 18 months 6 years ago,but,hindsight being a wonderful thing,my main system was flawed in that I was chasing losses,had some great times when it worked tho 🙂
anyways,enough of my ramblings,best of luck today lads and ladies
Cheers Johnny. Jammy git haha! Just to clarify. 6 points at £10 stakes would be £60 profit right?? So because you just got lucky hitting the winners, you managed to hit those profits?
Well done again Dean, 70% up on the day, helped by reverse forecasts in first race at ayr and last race at ripon, boy that was a close one. Here’s hoping for another day like that and i’ll take the rest of the week off sick and watch the money roll in lol
Hi dean Thanks for sharing your dutch split %, it was a great help and certainly makes a difference. A profit was made today to help us onward and upwards 🙂 All the best for Tuesday.
..and I back just before each race,and hopefully stop if /when I hit 6 points
Hi Dean,Would like to register my interest in the Football pools.And also think it would be a good idea to have some form of contract.
Hiya Gaz,I normally split the tenner between them,if the odds are near each other,but I was unable to do all the selections today as I was busy,but struck the winners,so I was fortunate the way it went today
Great shout yet again Dean.Missed Ayr but was on tonight,some cracking results well done matey.Im up for the footie,but what you will need to bear in mind is none of us know each other,i would only go into something like that with contracts.Sorry guys no disrespect but i dont know you and likewise.Apart from that im in.
@Johnny Agreed mate, Deans tips come up again!! Just curious as to how you bet like? I’ve finished today 50% up on my opening bank of £60 by betting the £10 dutch. Obviously this way I can’t put all the bets on early doors and so don’t get all the odds Dean quotes. Wondered which way you went with it?
@Dean Excellent stuff mate! Can’t grumble with what you’re doing at all mate. VERY unlucky in the first race two where one selection would have won apart from a stumble on the death and the other selection would’ve won with 2 more strides!! Very keen on the footy idea too pal – count me in on that!!
…and Athenian’s just put the cherry on top,brilliant Dean!
some great picks again on the dutching Dean 🙂
Thanks Dean for clearing up that query! Thanks again for being altruistic and helping others so kindly, i have lost loads on tipsters x about 10, who invariably disappoint and leave you very light in the pocket especially as you wait for the turn around that often does not come! It is refreshing that you are so helpful to those interested like Brian also! Here’s to making steady profits and enjoying racing again and not feeling frustrated. Happy Punting!
Hi Dean
Could we please have daily and months results
for July ?
Dean
Just to say your genius your nap bets are the best
Dean is/was over on betting rant, he`s been really busy, let`s all give him a chance i`m sure he will come good with the forex live postings.
I think you should leave in Deans usually astonishing results for previous month
Yes but Dean is on Holiday at the minute
does anyone know when dean is back and when his tips are available.
Is Dean not posting here anymore?
I noticed he is posting elsewhere.
Where is he posting?
Tommorow:
3.35 Newc – Jan Smuts @ 8.6 and Stags Leap @ 14 (0.5pt on each)
4:45 Newc – Ursus @ 10 (1pt win)
5:15 Newc – Amno Dancer @ 6.16 (1pt win)
8:00 Lingf – Seven Veils @2.5 (pt win)
0.5pt on the treble excluding the 3.35 as 2 runners.
Hi Simon
Great tipping again. This is a very good system. Is there a chance of you continuing these on Deans return possibly in your own thread? Whatever you decide to do many thanks for your time and effort
Dave
Thanks Amos – 2 winners and a photo finish. Unlucky not to land the 70/1 treble there . Will post tomorrow’s later after this Olympic tosh….
You know things are going well when a photo is your wort result bring on tomorrow and opening ceromonies suck
Hi simon, great tipping again! this is a good little system.
thanks for the info!
have a goodun
Were do i find your tips for friday 27july
Red Rythm was 8/1. Just a thought if you backed these selections early you might be able to lay them on bet fair later and green up pretty often
please does anyone have any selections for york tomorow?
Hi gaz, the horses im putting up are horses returning 0-5 days since last race in which they must have placed 1,2,3,4 and there prev race before this must be within 40 days.
5:45 Chep – Chosen Character – 5/1
7:50 Chep – Red Rythm – 5/1 + Evens (place)
8:55 Chep – Solar View – Evens
Tabaret today only managed 3rd.
@Simon – With all these different criteria flying round I’m a little confused. The selections you’ve been putting up i.e. Tricky Madam/Great Run & today Tabaret, what criteria do they meet and is it these criteria that you say is 110pt profit since Jan 11?
Hi, yes generally level stakes. Depends on the price I can get on place market. If it’s under evens I will place win bet only. If over evens then generally 1pt win and 1pt place. No PL figures but I will work it out. Just keeping this while Deans on holiday. Don’t want to hijack his thread lol. The system has about 110 pt profit since Jan 11. That’s to SP so a lot lot more if you get early prices.
Hi Simon
Great work on your system. Im very impressed with the detail you go into. Can i ask are the bets you suggest E/W? And level stakes? Also whats the profit / loss since you started posting your selections? Keep up the good work mate
Many thanks
Dave
Course: Any UK
Runners: 4 to 7
Days since last run 0-7
Placed 1,2 on last run
Placed 1,2 on next run
Type of race: ALL (AW, Flat, Handicap, Stake etc)
Runs = 277, Wins = 104 (37%) WLSP +15.20. AVRG price 1.81/1.
Place % = 56% LSP of -31.91
Adding this restriction c-R > ALL – Efficiency in races of the same Code at Courses with a similar length of Run-In (Short/Medium/Long).
Runs = 157, Wins = 69 (43%) WLSP +35.69. AVRG Price 1.79/1
54% placed
Course: Any UK
Runners: 8 to 15
Days since last run 0-7
Placed 1,2,3 Last run
Placed 1,2,3 Next run
Type of race: ALL (AW, Flat, Handicap, Stake etc)
Runs = 1011, Wins = 229 (22%) WLSP = -13.79. AVRG Price 3.35/1. Place = 52% – 29.08LSP
Adding this restriction – 1LE = Led (includes ‘Headed’, ‘Made all’, ‘Made most’ and ‘Made virtually all’
Runs 430, Wins 129, WLSP = 108.36; AVWSP 3.17/1. Place = 240 (55%) LSP +4.29
Good stuff i have been getting on afew of your selections to turn over some money for the bet 365 mobile bonus good results but the prices shorten quickly.
Tricky Madam not so good, ‘Great Run’ had a Great Run…
Early price was just under 6/1. Went off 5/2. So decent profit.
@Greg – System results to follow in morning. Looking good so far, especially the 2-7 runners.
Tommorows:
6.45 – Tabaret @ 7.6
Simon
I can’t see the draw making much difference to be honest with there just being the 5 runners but the danger does look to come from the unraced Juana Belen. Personally I don’t like betting such short odds against unraced horses. Great Run looks a better bet but drawn 13 won’t help it!
I will probably be proven wrong and they will both romp home! Lol lets hope so!
Regards
Gary
Nice call on great run.
Pat
Tommorow: 2:30 Catt – Tricky Madam – 2nd LTO returns after 5 days. Has the best draw which should prove significant over this 7f trip.
2:40 Ling: Great Run.
Thanks for pointing that out Pat, not sure why it didnt come up as a qualifer o_0 will look into that.
Other one just finished out of the places. Not good enough
@greg – will run those two tonight and post results tomorrow.
@raz. Indeed the money looking good. Managed to get on the drifted price this morning of 12/1 and just over 3/1 place. Let’s hope it runs well
Hi Simon, Missed out on Dr Irv yesterday but interesting to note today’s qualifier, Sydney Cove, is also one of Jason’s tips and has already been backed into 7/1 on Betfair (@ 10 a.m.).
Thanks for the info.
Hi Simon,
Could you check what the stats are for the following criteria:
Course: Any UK
Runners: 8 to 15
Days since last run 0-7
Placed 1,2,3 Last run
Placed 1,2,3 Next run
Type of race: ALL (AW, Flat, Handicap, Stake etc)
You could also try the following:
Course: Any UK
Runners: 4 to 7
Days since last run 0-7
Placed 1,2 on last run
Placed 1,2 on next run
Type of race: ALL (AW, Flat, Handicap, Stake etc)
These 2 systems would combine all races ran with 15 or less runners, all runners placing in first 3 on their last run and placing in the next run within 7 days. It would then be possible to decrease or increase the number of days since last run where they placed.
Would be interesting to see
Dr Irv, placed 3rd at 18/1. One qualifier tommorow Sydney Cove 4:30 Muss. 11/1
Consider yourself 3.20 yar was in the system
Sorry guys the restriction is just within 40 days. My mistake. None today again. But Dr Irv was a qualifier in the 8.30 bev due to being placed 4th LTO. As it was 9 runners technically he didn’t place. Maybe try the system with just 1,2,3. Could still be worth a place bet in open race. If anyone has any other system ideas that would be good
@Alex R
That would be a dead heat then?
@Simon
Many thanks for your work on the ‘Five day system’ was a regular feature on the (currently suspended) Holy Grail site. I was on Lochantanks big time before but sadly missed yesterday.
Anyone?
Is anyone still exploring ‘Laying the Field’ ?
With what results?
@Mark W.
Thanks for the encouragement. The curse that arrives as soon as you publish continued yesterday. Will try again today.
Remember these are principally for the place market except where noted. Alternatively try 1 pt. win, 4 pts to place.
Ascot
14.50 – Barbican
15.25 – Nocturn
Royal Rayhr
16.00 – Lieutenant Kojack
16.35 – Dalkova
17.05 – Secret Witness
Rasaman
Newton Abbot
14.25 – King’s Wharf – Win Bet
15.00 – Rebel Dancer
16.10 – Maizy Missile
17.15 – Lord Lescriba
Curragh
Heavy going but I have a small treble on three horses that have all won on Heavy…
14.10 – Caponata
14.45 – Count of Liomonade
15.20 – Great Heavens
Good Luck if you decide to play.
Hi Simon, had to settle for 5/1 for lockantanks but by ignoring the 7.15 at lingfield (because you identified 2 qualifiers), there was still a reasonable profit on the day. Appreciate your efforts and hopefully you can advise us of more qualifiers in the coming week. Cheers.
Your Comments
Hi guys, Not sure Lockintanks was actually a qualifier as it last ran 17 days in its penultimate race and it stipulates 21-40 days in correspondence !
Your Comments
Hi Simon, Was Lockantanks a qualifier, as i thought the time limit was 21-40 says in previous race, and in this case think it was 17 days. Possibly i’ve misread your article ?…..Allan
It may also be worth noting that Dean’s NAP a while back (Lieutenant Kojak) who was a NR is running tommorow at the 4:00 Ascot. Currently 11.5 on exchanges
2:30 Ripon – Balinka 4th
3.05 Ripon – Lockantanks 1st
4:00 Mark – Clarion Call NR
4:55 Ripon – Ypres 3rd
7:15 Ling – Sarangoo & Bermondsey Bob – Both unpl
8:15 Ling – Jackie Love NR
Balinka missed out on place, still – No where near as good as Dean, but if you got the early price for Lockantanks as stated above, you would be in profit.
No qualifiers tommorow.
Although Kings Wharf back out after 7 days, should be hard to beat here.
Good luck tommorow, in the mean time gonna test new system targeting races with smaller prize money.
If i find anything of interest I shall post.
Hi Simon
Thanks for carrying out the “5 days since last run” research. I’d be very interested to see any further Stats/selections you come up with.
Craig
Ian,Nolecce was not placed in its last race so does not qualify.Hope everyone got Lockentanks at an early price of 11/1
Your Comments
Later Selections – very little.
Lingfield
20.15 – Aciano
20.45 – Roxelena
Yesterday’s place bets.
Slight improvement, I pt up.
Running total, 2 days. -2 pts.
Hi Guys,
If anyone is on here in ‘The Master’s’ absence these are my selections for today. I am suggesting 1 pt win and 4 pts to place. Let’s see how it goes.
Minimum prices @ off. Win 2.0 Place 1.50. Must satisfy BOTH.
Ascot
15.20 – Tullis
16.35 – Sea Moon
17.10 – The Quarterjack
Newmarket
14.00 – Charlotte Rosina
14.30 – West Coast Dream
15.10 – Set to Music
17.00- Pashan Garh
Ripon
18.05 – Izzet
Market Rasen
16.00 – Compton Blue
17.15 – Well Green
Cartmel
14.25 – Foundry Square
17.55 – Wheyaye
Lingfield and Haydock to follow or these will not be posted by 14.00.
Too many interruptions form CLB this morning!
Hi Dean,
If/when you read this. A Homage. Missing you already!
Your performance yesterday was off the scale, the best I have EVER seen across the cards, such consistency would be hard to beat if you had tomorrow’s paper. Applying my own filters and not subbing N/R left 15 races. Applying £10.0 L/S to each horse @ BSP produced a (net) profit of £435.84 for T/O of £300, ROI 242%.
If you have achieved that before or can do it again I will believe you can walk on water!
My own staking plan, applied to the same selections produced a ROI of 160%. normally I would have been delighted with that but you found so many winners it does not stand comparison.
Hope you are having or had a great time.
Malcolm
I dont think walking on water would be much of a challenge for dean at the moment. i want to see him pick two winners in the same race when he gets back.
Afternoon all, has dean posted his ratings today?? I cant find them.
cheers for now
Hi guys another horse today under 5 days since ran Ripon 6:05 No,1 Nolecce.
Good Luck
Does not fit into the system, not been placed previous race.
Paper Trade. Lay of the day – 1.45pm Market Rasen: Ctappers 4.0
As usual. Publish it and it turns around
Hello Simon, thanks for doing the 5 day system im really interested in this!
might have a few cheeky place bets on your system advised tips.
cheers for now and good luck all!
Hi dean i watched your tips run yesterday could not have a bet but i am thinking off having a bet today r u puttimg some more tips on later thanks Alski
Hi guys, for those interested in the Days Since Last Race system which qualifies horses appearing within 5 days of their last race in which they must have placed, and there race before must have been 21-40 days. Few qualifiers tommorow, which i have listed below.
There was one qualifer today and that was Cruise to The Limit who won at 9/4.
Tommorows:
2:30 Ripon – Balinka
3.05 Ripon – Lockantanks
4:00 Mark – Clarion Call
4:55 Ripon – Ypres
7:15 Ling – Sarangoo & Bermondsey Bob
8:15 Ling – Jackie Love
Strike Rate of system for win bets is 22% (+101.09 Pts since 2011) and place bets is 45%.
I have added an additional restriction to this system which has increased the strike rate for win bets to 28% – work in progress.
Anyway, it’s a Saturday and that means competitive racing. Will see how these perform on paper. Although couldn’t resit a dabble on Ypres (W&P) and Lockantanks (P)
Good luck tommorow.
top dutchin picks dean, well done
pat
The last 2 won so I finished down 4 units. I missed the NR replacements. If I’d included them, then I would have been up 3 units.
Is everybody else doing the dutch Ratings section?
Its just that, the June results shows the Top Picks and those did well and so now I’m also doing the Top Picks. Just flat stake on each tip and double on the NAP.
Hi Dean,
Terrific performance today. I will tot up the totals when I get home tonight; have a new staking plan to apply, will see what it does for profit.
Have trouble free journeys and FUN.
Many thanks again.
Malcolm
Hi, I wonder if you can help me? I keep reading how well everyone is doing but I keep ending the day down. Yesterday, I was down 1 unit. I bet 1 unit on each of the top picks and 2 on the NAP (which won). How come other people were up? Today, you say 9 out of 12 winners but I’ve had 1 winner in the first 9 and am down nearly 7 units. Can anyone put me straight?
Yes, great tipping today, Dean – I’m going to stop as well and take my profits to the pub! Enjoy your holiday and thanks again.
lmao well think i’ll call it a day 9 outta 12 winners and 12 points up on the ratings just gonna paper trade rest of the day
I backed some this morning my time this evenig for you guys and some of the prices were a lot lower than they had started which suggests to me there were a lot of us on deans winners for the whole day good tipping dean enjoy your holidays
Niiiiiiice, enjoy that matey!!
Hah, you’re not kidding there my friend. It’s longer than the dangly bits of the residents of your holiday destination!!
@Gaz Antigua havent booked return flights yet but probably just a week.
Ive asked jason to give us a new page this 1 getting a bit full
Hi Dean,
Where you going on holiday and how long for?
Here are the evening selections:-
Newmarket
18.45 – Serene Oasis
19.50 – Trojan Rocket
20.55 – Yankee Storm
Pontefract
19.00 – Zowina
19.35 – Silvanus
20.10 – Last Destination
21.10 – Commanche Raider
Good Luck to you all.
Good afternoon,
Introduced a new filter today, takes ages and several interruptions this morning. Here are the early selections, I am moving my minimum place price down to 1.80. Evening selections will follow later.
Ascot
14.10 – Hot Secret
15.55 – Farlow
16.30 – Poole Harbour
17.05 – Dubai Dynamo – will be below threshold. I will probaly do 1 pt. to win/4 to place provided I can get 2.0/1.25.
Haydock
17.25 – Jupiter Fidius
Good Luck!
Yep johnny, purple n gold misses out again, he’ll run when summer gets here lol
only just realised Notts is off
Love the horse, he’s a sandwich short of a picnic, says a lot about me i suppose lol.
@Mark w- yeah,i backed the bugger! good horse but i’m not sure how they’ll have trained it out of him,maybe they’ve fitted him with sunglasses..
two corrections to the above post, his real name is headspace and he’s running at pontefract this time, hope they don’t mow a line in the turf !
No pressure for the naps then mark cheers lol.
NR Replacements
4-15 maska pony 20/1
6-10 willowing 6/1
6-45 serene oasis 10/1
Watch out everyone ” Headcase” is running at Ayr, if ever a horse was aptly named its him. He’s the one who last time out threw the race by shirking the mowed line in the track at the finishing line, time out before that he jumped the same line lol.
Back him if you want a laugh.
Malcolm,
Seems like you were hit with the first day curse, i can see how this could make quite nice profits with a bit of luck.
Keep it up and don’t get disheartened.
Thanks for your hard work each day your tips r good thanks Alski
Thanks for your efforts Dean and excellent work with the naps, had a £50 mobile bonus from bet365, been using it exclusively for your naps.
Have a great holiday.
Best regards
Mark W.
Top Picks
Friday 20/12/12 All 1pt (£10)wins
1-50 not purple n gold 9/5
2-00 hay paddyfrommenlo 5/1
2-10 asc pearl bell 2/1
3-05 hay tip top gorgeous 7/1
3-40 hay cruise tothelimit 10/3
4-05 not lucky suit 8/1
4-15 hay mean it 5/6 NO BET
4-50 hay rocktherunway 11/4
5-05 asc dubai dynamo 7/2
5-25 hay hayek 15/8 NAP
5-35 asc dutch old master 4/1
5-40 nwm hail promenade 7/1
6-10 nwm nargys 11/4 NEXT BEST
6-25 pon secret symphony 3/1
6-45 nwm amadeus wolfe tone 4/1
7-50 nwm trojan rocket 4/1
8-25 nwm zamdy man 4/1
Dean
I have just started to see your tips and this week backing your nap selections has given me a profit. I want to thank you I like just one horse a day and your naps fit the bill. I know there will be losses that’s part of racing but I think your tips are good and I wanted to say thank you for providing then
Morning guys here are the ratings
Friday 20/12/12
1-50 not purple n gold 9/5 £6
baileys over ice 4/1 £4
2-00 hay paddyfrommenlo 5/1 £4
bold cuffs 11/4 £6
2-10 asc pearl bell 2/1 £5
diaminda 2/1 £5
2-20 not infinite hope 6/4 £7
devine guest 13/2 £3
2-30 hay mushaakis 5/1 £4
proffessor 5/2 £6
2-45 asc discernable 3/1 £4
havanna gold 11/8 £6 rfc
2-55 not disposition 7/2 £6
muqantara 7/1 £4
3-05 hay tip top gorgeous 7/1 £7
decision by one 16/1 £3
3-20 asc romeo montague 6/1 £6
rockfella 12/1 £4
3-30 not bravo youmzain 5/4 £7
medicoe 9/2 £3 rfc
3-40 hay cruise tothelimit 10/3 £6
captain scooby 13/2 £4
3-55 asc farlow 17/2 £4
shropshire 7/1 £6
4-05 not lucky suit 8/1
sylvia pankhurst
4-15 hay mean it 5/6 £8
madame blavatsky 9/1 £2 rfc
4-30 asc moretta blanche 14/1 £5
apollo d negro 12/1 £5
4-40 not demora 13/2 £5
planetex 9/1 £5
4-50 hay rocktherunway 11/5 £6
flashman 4/1 £4
5-05 asc dubai dynamo 7/2 £6
hefner 6/1 £4
5-15 not aeorodynamic 6/1 £4
anton chigurh 3/1 £6
5-25 hay hayek 15/8 £7 NAP
buzz law 7/1 £3
5-35 asc dutch old master 4/1 £5
restaurteur 7/2 £5
5-40 nwm hail promenade 7/1 £4
cantor 3/1 £6
6-10 nwm nargys 11/4 £7
frege 7/1 £3
6-25 pon secret symphony 3/1 £5
twilight pearl 7/2 £5
6-45 nwm amadeus wolfe tone 4/1 £7
roedean 7/1 place £3
7-00 pon zowina 7/2 £7
maybeagrey 12/1 £3
7-15 nwm elusivity 11/4 £5
elnawin 7/2 £5
7-35 pon silvanus 8/1 £3
headspace 2/1 £7
7-50 nwm trojan rocket 4/1 £5
rivas rhapsody 9/2 £5
8-10 pon byron bear 9/2 £6
last destination 11/1 £4
8-25 nwm zamdy man 4/1 £4
alraased 5/2 £6
8-40 pon the lodge road 10/1 £4
samaritan knight 3/1 £6
8-55 nwm forks 7/1 £5
my single malt 13/2 £5
9-10 pon dream catcher 7/2 £6
bid for gold 11/1 £4
Well done Dean, excellent results again today. My selections were not up to yesterdays returns, -3.0 pts to BSP as per rules. Disappointing today, both Strike Rate and Prices.
Posted 20 selections (1 N/R)
12 Qualified – BSP>2.0 – 4 placed
9 did not qualify – BSP < 2.0 – 3 placed
That said I think we were unlucky today.
19.35 – Showflower won @ 1.96
20.10 Ginzan – placed @1.86 but matched @ 2.0 on my Bot within 5 secs of off time.
There were also 3 close up 4th places:-
16.15 – Putin – 1/2L
18.20 – Another Citizen – sh.
21.00 Dorry K – nk.
Only explaining this time so you can see how it could have been very different but that's racing. Better luck tomorrow.
Dean, how long will you be away for???? Tips are great
Thanks guys sounds like you all had a good thats brilliant cyas all tomorrow.
Dean
Outstanding again today. 7 points up today and 22 points up in the last 3 days. Great work Dean. Going to relax for the rest of the evening with a beer.
Cheers
Dave
Your Comments
hi dean, thanks for your response, brilliant tipping again today.
The 17:30 at Bath has just finished and Dean’s ratings are up 20 points to BFSP.
I’d say this was a good place to stop for the day…
bailed out early doors today Dean,due to your brilliant start,and thanks for your help on the forex thread,really looking forward to it getting up and running,have a great holiday,see ya in a couple of weeks,and good luck to everyone on here 🙂
niel i started about 5-30am this morning and i only ber on betfair
Your Comments
Arnie excuse my ignorance but whose templegate?
Sun tipster
Nap wins again, well done dean.
Pat
Your Comments
hi dean, was wondering how you got the price of super simon @ 6-1 in the 3.15 at brighton, i could only get 13-8 early price. i must be on the wrong betting website.
Great day today, seems the weather to be helping. Nice one dean, wonder what happens when u away.
On the other hand Templegate is on fire, 5 straight wins and 3 of them big money.
Cheers top man Dean yet again.Im taking my points and finished 5 points up that will do me.
Sean
well done Malcolm,hope your efforts are rewarded with a good day 🙂
Good afternoon,
Let’s hope it is a better one for all of us. Weather looks to be improving, unless any of you living near today’s meetings know better…
As the weather and going have been making life so difficult I have been looking for something that might prove more consistent at this time. I have paper traded a few days, ran on the Bot yesterday and made 10.5 pts profit, sadly only £2.00 stakes.
I thought I would share today as no-one believes what you claim afterwards. Feel free to follow or paper-trade – publishing is usually the kiss of death! If they work and with kind permission from Jason and Dean I could post until Dean returns, maybe help to keep the site active?
The strategy is for the PLACE MARKET, the selection should be a minimum of 2.0 at the off.
Hamilton
15.30 King of Paradise
16.00 Act your Shoe Size
17.00 Sweetnessandlight
Brighton
14.15 Sommertrice
15.45 Bold Diva
16.15 Putin
16.45 Roedean
17.50 Royal Defence
Bath
18.00 Wooden King
19.35 Show Flower
20.10 Ginzan
20.40 Steel Rain
Doncaster
18.20 Another Citizen
18.50 Specialty
20.30 Ela Gonda Mou
21.00 Dorry K
Epsom
18.10 Shesa Bear
18.40 Cool Rythm
19.15 Royal Skies
20.50 Benzanno
Good Luck today.
I like the idea of place bets
Made big mistake in june use midas racing bets 19 won 7 lost11 no bets 9 nr 3 i lost 500 if i used dean in june i will be 1314 in profit
Todays Top picks
Thursday 19/7/12 All 1pt (£10)wins
2-00 ham ginger goose 7/5
2-30 ham colonel mak NO BET
2-45 bri bermondsey bob 7/2
3-30 ham king of paradise 3/1
3-45 bri mark anthony 7/2
4-00 ham ed de gas 9/2
4-30 ham economic crisis 2/1 NAP
5-30 bat windforpower 8/1
6-20 don another citizen 5/1
6-30 bat waspy 3/1
7-05 bat woolston ferry 7/2 NEXT BEST
7-35 bat gabriels lad 4/1
7-45 eps jane lachatte 4/1
7-55 don madam macie 10/3
8-20 eps dr red eye 11/4
8-30 don amazing blue sky 7/1
Good morning poor day yesterday about 9 points down over both systems
Thursday 19/7/12
2-00 ham ginger goose 6/4 £6
nordikhab 11/4 £4
2-15 bri scommertrice 11/2 £5
whiteoak lady 6/1 £5
2-30 ham colonel mak 4/6
muaamara 4/1 NO BET NO VALUE rfc
2-45 bri bermondsey bob 7/2 £5
dear marice 7/2 £5
3-00 ham sir quintin 5/2 £6
mawaqeet 9/2 £5
3-15 bri petite georgia 5/4 £7
super simon 6/1 £3
3-30 ham king of paradise 3/1 £7
botham 9/1 £3
3-45 bri mark anthony 7/2 £5
pose 11/4 £5
4-00 ham ed de gas 9/2 £6
naseem alyasmeen 7/1 £4
4-15 bri do more buisness 5/1 £5
captainrisk 11/2 £5
4-30 ham economic crisis 2/1 £7
distant sun 13/2 £7
4-45 bri satwa laird 10/1 £5
consider yourself 11/1 £5
5-00 ham lord franklin 7/2 £5
sweetnessandlight 4/1 £5
5-15 bri sheikhzayedroad 2/1 £7
hawaana 9/1 £3
5-30 bat windforpower 8/1 £4
barracuda boy 4/1 £6
5-50 bri barbirolli 18/1 £5
royal defence 12/1 £5
6-00 bat osiris way 7/1 £5
signfer 7/1 £5
6-10 eps sheesha bear 5/1 £5
o ma lad 11/2 £5
6-20 don another citizen 5/1 £5
errigal lad 11/2 £5
6-30 bat waspy 3/1 £7
macy anne 12/1 £3
6-40 eps fathsta 7/2 £5
cool rhythm 9/2 £5
6-50 don pompeia 6/4 £7
testamatta 9/2 £3
7-05 bat woolston ferry 7/2 £6
phillipstown 13/2 £4
7-15 eps royal skies 11/4 £5
zannetto 3/1 £5
7-25 don tickle time 2/1 £5
elle woods 5/2 £5 rfc
7-35 bat gabriels lad 4/1 £6
millibar 17/2 £4
7-45 eps jane lachatte 4/1 £4
tamaruud 11/4 £6
7-55 don madam macie 10/3 £4
dance and dance 6/4 £6
8-10 bat sparking 7/1 £6
gracies games 13/1 £4
8-20 eps dr red eye 11/4 £6
abigails angel 5/1 £4
8-30 don amazing blue sky 7/1 £5
william haigh 9/1 £5
8-40 bat one last dream 9/2 £5
bateleur 11/2 £5
8-50 eps benzanno 4/1 £6
jumeirah palm star 11/1 £4
9-00 don fiesty champion 3/1 £6
in the crowd 11/1 £4
ouch – what a horrible day !
I like your nap selection, excellent tipping
thanks for the picks again Dean
NR replacements
2-30 narcisist 4/1
3-50 victor hewgo 5/1
4-10 sweet fairnando 4/1
I will test that one later Alex and see what comes up. How about if we also did a minimum price i. E 2 or 3/1 . Also bet info, I will be happy to run your system if u still have the criteria
No system just simple back and lay for small profit when the horse loses and smallish loss when horse wins but you have the free bet i do it every sat with IAS in aust but due to time difference i miss out on bet 365 GB and Irish
@betinfo – I use Visual Form Book (dataform)
It sounds like you are on to something with the last race results Simon my ears also picked up when i heard the earlier stat.
Maybe have a look at up to 7 days break and won last race
-7 days break and placed last race not including 4th
-and a million other possible permutations i currently have running through my head
Although it looks like there is already some money to be made esp. at BOG
PS does anyone use bet 365 to take their free money on the 4 to 1
Todays Top Picks
Wednesday 18/7/12 All 1pt(£10) wins
2-00 lin ukranian princess 7/2
2-20 utt battlecat 4/5 NO BET
2-30 lin niger 7/5
2-50 utt enroller 15/8
3-10 cat blue shoes 7/2
3-20 utt delganey gunner 11/2
3-30 lin alfraamsey 10/3
3-50 utt aqualung 4/1
4-00 lin silent moment 6/4
4-10 cat fisher 5/1 place
4-20 utt benny well 9/2
4-40 cat eastlands lad 11/2
5-30 lin lord of the storm 6/1
7-00 san haatefina 2/1 NAP
8-35 san april ciel 15/2
Good morning guys good day yesterdy more of the same today please
Wednesday 18/7/12
2-00 lin ukranian princess 7/2 £6
the baronet 7/1 £4
2-10 cat red joker 4/1 £4
silent footsteps 6/4 £6
2-20 utt battlecat 4/5
on the feather 12/1 NO BET rfc
2-30 lin niger 7/5 £7 check keyadi in the first
albayan 11/2 £3
2-40 cat llewellyn 9/4 £6
zomerlust 7/1 £4
2-50 utt enroller 15/8 £6
saute 11/4 £4
3-00 lin dangerous to know 7/2 £6
kaiser wilhelm 10/1 £4
3-10 cat blue shoes 7/2 £5
demora 3/1 £5
3-20 utt delganey gunner 11/2 £5
noble commander 5/1 £5
3-30 lin alfraamsey 10/3 £5
travore 11/4 £5
3-40 cat elizabeth coffee 6/5 £7
eijaaz 11/2 £3
3-50 utt aqualung 4/1 £7
officier de reserve 10/1 £3
4-00 lin silent moment 6/4 £8
sand skier 20/1 £2
4-10 cat flashman 7/2 £7
fisher 20/1 £3
4-20 utt benny well 9/2 £4
fly direct 3/1 £6
4-30 lin sugar house 11/4 £5
ghostflower 11/4 £5
4-40 cat eastlands lad 6/1 £4
sabore 5/2 £6
4-50 utt clarion call 11/8
butler 2/1 NO BET NO VALUE rfc
5-00 lin sujet bellagio 15/8 £7
ghost train 8/1 £3
5-30 lin lord of the storm 6/1 £4
mitch rap 7/2 £6
5-55 san dominate 8/11 rfc
starlight angel 9/1 NO BET NO VALUE
6-20 wor qualypso dallier 5/6
petito 4/1 NO BET NO VALUE rfc
6-30 san khubala 6/4 £6
picture dealer 11/4 £3
6-50 wor stafford charlie 4/1 £5
be ashored 6/1 £5
7-00 san haatefina 2/1 £7 NAP
northern harbour 12/1 £3
7-20 wor sarah collins 7/4 £8
go annie 16/1 £2
7-30 san viscount vert 9/2 £5
shavansky 11/2 £5
7-55 wor macra na feirme 6/1 £5
wicklewood 13/2 £5
8-05 san little dutch girl 8/1 £4
debating society 7/2 £6
8-25 wor foundry square 15/8 £5
earth tremor 15/8 £5 rfc
8-35 san april ciel 15/2 £4
dovils date 7/2 £6
8-55 wor marie de anges 10/11 NO BET NO VALUE although cant see marie de anges being beat
on the right path 6/1
Sounds like extremely useful software Simon
Simon, what software are you running your systems through? I once used Racexperts software until they stopped it, I had a few very good systems. I may still have the criteria to run the systems again.
Ran the following system last night:
Course: Any UK
Runners: 8 to 40
Days since last run 0-5
Placed 1,2,3,4 on last run
Type of race: ALL (AW, Flat, Handicap, Stake etc)
Runs = 1,135, Wins = 199 (Strike Rate= 17%) (Avg LSP = -61pt)
Number of placed horses = 544 (Strike Rate = 44%). Probably more as dont think my analyser takes into account that BF pays out for 4th.
So overall It looks a bit gloomy, HOWEVER if you add the following restirction:
DSR2 Days Since 2nd last race under any code = 021 to 040 = 352 runs. Wins = 75 (21% strike rate). AV LSP for win bets = +107pts. Average starting price = 5/1. Placed = 165 (46 % strike rate) + 25pts.
These results are from 01/01/11 to May 2012
If you have any ideas, please share. Running systems which include all different type of races, AW, Flat, etc generally produces shrewd results??
GOing to re-run the system later with the DSR2 restriction too see if there are any other restrictions that will make it more profitable.
Good luck today.
I can see the headlines now,
” Dean escapes to sun and leaves punters in spiral of depression”.
Honestly mate, have a great break a,d recharge those batteries, you’ve more than earned it.
Best Regards
Mark W.
Hi guys sorry havent been on most of the day been dragged around finding flights afraid im gonna be away for a week. as for today ive just shut down for the night 5.6 points on the ratings and 12.4 on the top picks good day all round lets hope for many more. Goodnight Dean
Your Comments
hi dean, have been watching your tips over the last week and am really impressed with your tipping, really nice to see someone sharing their experience free of charge, did start having some bets on your tips today and already in profit, great to hear from the other guys an all, keep up the good work.
Great day today. just over 9 points up following the top tips. Many thanks Dean
Dave
Hi Simon,
That sounds a really useful database you have. I agree with Greg’s comments. Appreciate your efforts and sharing the results.
Hi Greg
Yes I will run that one later for sure. It wasn’t worth posting the results of that last one I said about. but I will run that criteria later and come back
Wow, 96% thats some return to make the mind boggle and the bank swell.
Will have to keep an eye on racing post for that stat.
@ Simon
Hi,
That system you’re checking is something Dean mentioned. I think it was for horses that are running again within 5 days of winning/placing LTO.
As horses finishing 3rd in any race with runners of 7 or less don’t place (unless with BetFair that had 8 or more before NRs) do you think it would be best to search your database for field sizes of a minimum of 8?
Just over the past couple of days there have been 7 runners that fit these criteria – 5 of them either won or placed.
I think I remember Dean saying that the strike rate for placing over the last 3 years was 96%. It’ll be interesting to see what your outcome is.
NR replacements
Tues 17/7/12
5-00 bev art mistress 15/2
5-15 fos top frock 7/2
5-50 yar disclaimer 5/2
6-20 yar maypole joe 7/2
thanks again Dean
And a few value selections
Tues 17/7/12 VALUE RATINGS
3-00 bev MON DUCHESS 18/1
4-30 bev violent velocity 12/1
5-30 bev rowan lodge 18/1
6-00 sow colour bearer 12/1
6-50 yar anjomarba 16/1
7-50 yar green mountain 14/1
8-20 yar miss aix 20/1
Todays Top Picks
Tuesday 17/7/12 All 1pt (£10) wins
2-00 bev bada bing 4/1
2-15 fos city girl 4/7 NO BET
2-30 bev inchy coo 11/4
2-45 fos astra hall 5/4 NAP
3-45 fos pandorica 7/2
4-00 bev mojolika 4/1
4-15 fos billidn 2/1 NEXT BEST
4-30 bev eenie mac 7/2
4-45 fos first rebellion 4/1
5-30 bev tinseltown 15/2
5-50 yar mowhoob 8/1
6-20 yar poetic princess 9/2
7-20 yar one kool dude 10/3
7-50 yar al karlovyyh 3/1
8-30 sow jonnie skull 7/2
Good morning guys here are todays ratings
Tuesday 17/7/12
2-00 bev bada bing 4/1 £7
no time to cry 12/1 £3
2-15 fos city girl 4/7
kodatish 6/1 NO BET NO VALUE
2-30 bev inchy coo 11/4 £5
ayr missile 11/4 £5
2-45 fos astra hall 5/4 £8
tastethewine 12/1 £2
3-00 bev arch walker 13/2 £4
headstight 4/1 PLACE £6
3-15 fos maid of silk 10/1
adeste 2/5 NO BET NO VALUE
3-30 bev lady chaparel 13/2 £4
save the bees 5/1 £6
3-45 fos pandorica 7/2 £5
villa royale 5/2 £5
4-00 bev mojolika 4/1 £6
blackstone vegas 6/1 £4
4-15 fos billidn 2/1 £8
praxiteles 12/1 £2
4-30 bev eenie mac 7/2 £5
first class favour 7/2 £5
4-45 fos first rebellion 4/1 £6
big sylv 13/2 £4
5-00 bev red highlites 9/2 £5
red cobra 4/1 £5
5-15 fos compton bird 13/2 £5
siouxperhero 7/1 £5
5-30 bev tinseltown 15/2 £5
landesherr 9/1 £5
5-50 yar mowhoob 8/1 £5
makafeh 11/2 £5
6-00 sow just like heaven 13/2 £5
spic n span 8/1 £5
6-20 yar poetic princess 9/2 £5
blades rose 4/1 £5
6-30 sow muhamee 9/4 £5
adili 11/4 £5
6-50 yar mucky molly 11/2 £5
represent 6/1 £5
7-00 sow kingaroo 7/1 £5
the blue dog 13/2 £5
7-20 yar one kool dude 10/3 £5
seventeen seventy 10/3 £5
7-30 sow minigun bell 11/4 £6
snow bay 7/1 £4
7-50 yar al karlovyyh 3/1 £6
love grows wild 4/1 £4
8-00 sow lexi the princess 7/4
lord advocate 5/2 NO VALUE
8-20 yar spirit of the law 4/1 £6
twelve strings 6/1 £4
8-30 sow jonnie skull 7/2 £7
gracies gift 9/1 £3
8-50 yar lyric poet 3/1 £6
chankillo 5/1 £4
9-00 sow kung hei fat choy 5/4 £8
smart affair 9/1 £2
Forgot to say a thank you to Jason Dean and Brian whose irish tips on Sunday gave me a lucky 15
I agree with the above comments best forum by a country mile as we strive to beat the old enemy the BOOKIE
Also, if anyone else has any good system ideas (Back or Lay)
I will be happy to test them (with past results)
Hey Dean/Guys
Someone said about the system, where horses run within a set amount of days and placed on their previous run.
I’m going to test the following system on my database tonight:
Number of runners: Minimum of 5
Minimun number of runs (total): 3 – so we have some sort of form
Last run: Must have placed (2nd, 3rd)
Current Race: Must be within 7 days of previous.
Not sure who originally posted this similar idea, but im gonna run the results from 1/1/11 and post results tommorow
Many Thanks to Jason, Dean and Brian 4 providing a great service. Going to start splitting the dutching each-way, see what profit I come up with at end of week. Quite a few placed horses 2day on selections at decent prices.
Funny day. Some sweet wins. Many others coming second place and third-place. So unlucky. But that’s betting. Thanks Dean.
I second that Norman(are we allowed to say second on here) fantastic site with great community spirit and endless advice, some would say i`m sad but i look forward to it every day.
Woud just like to say that Bet Info 24 must be one of the best horseracing sites on the web. No small thanks to Jason ,Dean, and Brian who put in a tremendous amount of work to provide such inspired Tipping. Also it is interesting that other members are prepared to put input in to try and improve what is already a profitable and enjoyable experience. I look forward each day not only to the selections but all the posts keep up the good work everyone! good luck to us all .
Both NO BETS on ratings system got the fc typical!!
Just over a year
WOW! Ok cool, and over how long of a period is that?
Without going through all the stats i think i can remember 2, 1 that was just a really bad day and another where there were about 7 non runners and the other few lost
@Dean – I know you might not be able to answer this, but has there ever been a day when NONE of your top picks have won at all?
@Greg, yeah, let’s go with those criteria. Won or placed LTO and running again within 7 days. Let’s see what strike rate comes up for it to place and/or win the next time out. Also, am I right in thinking that you’d does this analysis on a spread sheet? So if yo put the number of days in a column you could sort and manipulate it by those days to see if it’s a better strike right if it turns out again in say 5 days instead of 7 and things like that? Would fully appreciate that Greg. Happy to help if I can in any way?
Dean, yeah – I wasn’t asking/expecting you to look into it mate, just thought I remember seeing it on here somewhere and checking with you that I wasn’t making it up/going nuts haha. Would you know of a website you can look at where you can easily see if a horse has run in the last couple of days and is running again?
@Gaz yeah very high strike rate apparantly but doing all the ratings posting on here and the forex just havent had time to analyse it properly im sure if you ask on here one of the guys will have a look at it looks like gregs good with that sort of thing. Hey Greg u wanna be our stat man?
@raz yeah everyone uses the ratings in different ways if you can combine them with other research and make a profit thats great at the end of the day thats what were all trying to do.
@dale i only ever put one £1 line on recently ive had a £14,£83,£139
i think yesterdays was £300 and something.
I’ll have a look at it. What are the criteria? Horse won/ placed LTO and running again within 7 days?
Replacements for Non Runners
4-45 sow marmalade moon
6-10 win cruise to the limit
6-40 bussa
7-10 lucky beggar
thanks for the reply dean, yer ive pondered doing placepots, you took notice of what the payout was to a £1 stake?? if so any decent ones??
Hi Dean, To be fair to johnnyd and his earlier post, I don’t think he was saying it’s easy to pick winners. If I’ve understood him correctly, he was saying it’s too easy to become lazy and simply leave all the hard work to others like yourself. I’m guilty of that myself!
I accept that you, Brian & Jason are better at finding winners than I am (wouldn’t be hard, mind you!) but what I try to do now is look at your picks, study form & other factors and try and identify what has attracted you to a particular horse in the hope I can improve my own knowledge.
Thanks for all your good work. (still some heavy showers around Ayr at present).
Thankyou Raz, that is exactly what I meant. Dean does a great job!
Let’s hope we all have a good, profitable week.
Hi guys, everyone alright – not been online over the weekend.
Dean, wasn’t there a suggestion on one of these threads that backing horses that won and re-run in the next day or say has a high strike rate of winning/placing?
Hi Rob firstly anything odds on unless its absolutely 100% no doubt about it gonna win then with the dutching really if im staking £10 on 2 horses i at least want £10 profit i know some of the selections do come in under that figure (6-40 if either wins profit is a fiver) but in an ideal world that would be my minimum.
Hi Dale i actually do a placepot most days have hit a few. grand lahou knocked me out in the first yesterday then the rest of them all won/placed.
Dean, out of interest, when using the day’s picks, what represents no value to you when dropping both selections out of a race???
No problem, Sean.
Should be with you soon
Dean your selections and dedication are brilliant
Ignore the moaners and groaners, the majority of us know you do a cracking job and I for one welcome your contributions.
@Greg i tried to open the spreadsheet but no joy,can you send a copy please when you get time?smith6082@sky.com
Cheers
Hi everyone my first post on here, i have found a very interesting way what ive tried for the last week or so with deans selections thats is averaging 6pts profit per day over the last week and a bit. ive been backing in blocks of 8 small stake 20p ew cross doubles and trebles no theory just his first selection the first 8 then antother 8 of his second best seltion untill there was no picks left sometimes it left the last bet bein a smaller number of selections, and then the same with deans top picks but all of them in the same bet. also has anyone checked if deans hit any placepots since posting as he nearly won me the scoop 6 on saturday bar 1 selections that didnt place i was going to invest some time this week see if he hit any place pots and see what sort prize money they paid.
Small profit on both systems yesterday but how unlucky were we? plenty of 2nd and 3rds and 2 last fence fallers who would probably have won. They say luck evens itself out over time lets hope we get some today.
Happy hunting.Dean
Todays top Picks
Monday 16/7/12 All £10 (1pt) wins
2-15 sow lincoln rose 7/2
2-35 ayr the nifty fox 4/1
3-05 ayr oddysey 11/4??
3-15 sow flying pickets 17/2
4-05 ayr dubai dynamo 11/4 NAP
4-35 ayr rub of the relic 9/2
4-45 sow miss noble 3/1
5-05 ayr lady bluesky NO BET
6-00 wol therapeutic 4/1
6-30 wol astroscarlet 7/2
6-40 win purple n gold 2/1 NEXT BEST
7-10 win shahdaroba 7/2
8-10 win choral festival 15/2
8-40 win swynmor 11/4
9-00 wol footstepsofspring 7/2
Good morning guys slightly concerned about the amount of faves in the ratings today reducing the value of dutching. Ive left them in as i like to post the full list but i know most of you can spot where there is no value and remove them.
Monday 16/7/12
2-05 ayr red style 6/1 £4
majestic moon 11/4 £6
2-15 sow lincoln rose 7/2 £5
stripped bear 9/2 £5
2-35 ayr the nifty fox 4/1 £5
rasaman 5/1 £5
2-45 sow bix 7/2 £4
poetic prince 2/1 £6
3-05 ayr oddysey 11/4 £6
sabratha 9/2 £4
3-15 sow flying picketts 17/2 £4
upper lambourn 9/2 £6
3-35 ayr kimbali 3/1 £6
fieldgunner kirkup 5/1 £4
3-45 sow for what 11/4 £6
durberville 13/2 £4
4-05 ayr dubai dynamo 11/4 £7 NAP
extraterestrial 8/1 £3
4-15 sow reve du jour 9/2 £3
tunnager grove 6/5 £7
4-35 ayr rub of the relic 9/2 £4
hawdyerwheesht 85/40 £6
4-45 sow miss noble 3/1 £6
majestic manannan 9/2 £4
5-05 ayr lady bluesky 10/11
harare 7/1 NO BET NO VALUE
5-15 sow three white socks 5/1 £3
omid 6/4 £7
6-00 wol therapeutic 9/2 £5
capo rosso 4/1 £5
6-10 win whitecrest 11/2 £6
even bolder 7/1 £4
6-30 wol astroscarlet 7/2 £7
natasha rostova 18/1 £3
6-40 win purple n gold 2/1 £5
emperors waltz 2/1 £5
7-00 wol aquasulis 3/1 £5
mother jones 7/2 £5
7-10 win shahdaroba 7/2 £5
dust whirl 11/4 £5
7-30 wol sandbetweenourtoes 8/1 £5
hawk moth 9/1 £5
7-40 win ronaldinho 9/2
ashaadd 10/11 NO BET NO VALUE
8-00 wol white deer 2/1 £7
crimson monarch 8/1 £3
8-10 win choral festival 15/2 £4
bunraku 9/2 £6
8-30 wol edraaq 7/4 £6
mariet 9/2 £4
8-40 win swynmor 11/4 £6
last shodow 5/1 £4
9-00 wol footstepsofspring 7/2 £6
warden bond 6/1 £4
Hi Dean,
as ever on forums you always get one or two or three who are best not saying anything at all, but they can`t help it for whatever reason. I know i speak for most us of us when i say how much we appreciate the time and effort that you are putting into the horses and forex tips.
Cheers, Larry. I’ve put it on Google Drive.
Here’s the link
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0Bz6iV2frQpt0c3N2RWhjWnN3eUU
@Greg – Jason may have a way of sharing spreadsheets in the forum, but failing that a good way to do it is to create a spreadsheet on google docs (now called Google drive) and then share the link in the forum. So long as access is not set as private everyone with the link can access the document.
Keep up the good work guys!
Larry
only just realised we had a winner and a 3rd on the value bets both 16/1 (early am prices)
@johnnyd tip exchange/olbg and many more im sure we are all aware of them but what we have on here and i hope i speak for most of us is a small community who all try to work together to make our betting profitable. And if you find that picking winners is so “easy” your more than welcome to join us. Dean
Thanks Dean, It’s never easy to pick winners! You do a great job.
I’ll post some selections tomorrow, if I do half as well as you then I’ll be doing ok. Keep up the good work!
Johnnyd
Hi Greg,
Whenever you are ready is just fine.
Hi Dean,
I wasn’t watching the belated 3.40 but in spite of your selection I had layed ‘Robbie’, earlier success was under James Revely. I regularly lay any horse Andrew Thornton rides in Hurdles.
Sadly jock is injured in that fall. Fortunately Brendan Powell has been released from Hospital following his earlier fall. The way meeting is going he might return return to take up his ride in the 17.10 !
5 from 7 at Stratford. Superb.
No problem, Dean.
For all the bad luck at Southwell today, at Stratford its completely the opposite – 4 winners so far. And Bobowen is being backed as though defeat is out of the question
thats the 2nd one today fell at the last when clearly gonna win.
thanks for what your doing greg im sure it can help us in the long run
No problem. It’ll be a couple of days though before the place prices are finished.
Once again today the wins are spread between the TR and 2ndR, with the 2ndR having better BFSPs.
Looks promising for the 2ndR betting
@Greg,
I would really appreciate the spreadsheet. At risk of being cheeky, if you are going to add the place prices anyway, could I have it after you have done so?
If you are not I will be pleased to receive’ as is’.
Many thanks.
malcolm.dow@hotmail.co.uk
BTW, if anyone wants a copy of the spreadsheet, just let me know.
Is it possible to attach a file to this thread so its available for all?
If 1pt had been placed on all 2ndR selections @ BFSP the below P/L would have been achieved
2ndR Pts 341
Returns 347.2
P/L 6.2
-5% 5.89
ROI 1.82%
This would’ve reduced the initial investment considerably (probably still too many per day for most though). It would’ve also been possible to bet one race at a time with the objective of stopping once the required profit was made.
Hello All, Whilst Dean is giving some top tips, good work Dean.,
Maybe you should all try backing some selections that you pick yourself, it’s to easy and becomes to habit forming to rely on tips.
If you need to look/rely on tips, then take a look at “Tip Exchange”
It did take a while, spent all day getting it up to date – neck was sore!
As Dean has kindly shared his ratings with us free of charge, I think its the least we can do to try and improve profitability.
I agree that race type, going, field size should be looked at to select the best races.
It could also be beneficial to consider having a price threshold that we don’t go below. For example, approx 80 of the selections go off at less than BFSP of 3, with 28 of them winning (SR 34%). 1pt level stakes on these only would result in P/L -11PTS. This would’ve produced a better overall AVE. BFSP without reducing SR that much.
@Greg,
Interesting but not surprising; you have come to similar conclusions to me but based upon a larger and thereby more representative sample.
I guess you either have more time to spend on the analysis, type faster or both!
I did suggest a couple of days ago that we might split the work between several of us but no-one came forward. Good man for doing this, thanks for your efforts and sharing.
I had also been looking at whether the second selection would be more profitable, trading a lower strike rate for better odds, leading to a higher ROI.
I agree with you that we need a bigger sample before drawing any conclusions. We also need to look at:-
Going
Field size
Race type
as a minimum. I am getting some good results so far but need far more data at present.
@Dean,
Do you have this data for past weeks/months based upon your ratings before you began posting?
Not sure I should ask for this as it may prove too much to manage but maybe in bite sized pieces…
you’ve put some effort in there Greg,top stuff 🙂
There have been a total of 17 days so far – 6 winning and 11 losing days. 2 of the winning days have been over 30Pts.
Interestingly, the Ave. BFSP for the top rated (TR) is 6.4 but for the second rated (2ndR)it is 8.8 and the Ave. Win BFSP for the 2nd rated is 5.6, which is almost a point better than the Top rated – 4.8.
Full breakdown for TR and 2ndR selections
TRSelections 408 SR – 18% PL – 44%
Winners 75
Placers 103
Losers 230
AVE. Win BFSP – 4.8
2ndR Selections 341 SR – 18% PL – 44%
Winners 62
Placers 88
Losers 191
AVE. Win BFSP – 5.6
Its difficult to assess whether this is a long term or short term trend or whether the TR will take over in terms of a better strike rate. It is something to consider and monitor
@Malcom
Initially just Win prices but about half way through I started with PL prices. I’ll go back through the first half to input PL prices for completion.
Placing 1pt for each selection at BFSP would produce a P/L of -42Pts.
Whilst this is not a good return, this is only since the 28th June to Date, which is just over 2 weeks and not really long enough to make any serious conclusions.
There have been 408 races that have had a selection in (after NRs) so far. The ratings have produced a SR in these races of 34% and a PL SR of 80%( when backing both selections and not Dean’s Top picks). These strike rates are excellent, however it would appear that many of the selections’ early prices beat BFSP by some distance.
Total Selections – 749 SR – 18% PL – 44%
Winners – 137
Placers – 191
Losers – 421
AVE Win BFSP – 5.15
AVE PLSP – 2 (just for half of selections but unlikely to change much, probably reduce)
Something which is noticeable is that the ratings are for almost every race, this could be looked at in more detail to see if certain races are more profitable than others?
Your Comments
@Greg,
Great work! Are you inputting Win prices, place prices or both?
I think you are spot on using BSP for all the reasons given.
@Dean,
Shame about ‘Red not Blue’ had traveled well all through, was very handy when falling to 1st mistake two out.
Re ‘Russian Rave’ Jock mistook compulsory marked half f. out for winning post and stopped riding, by the time he realised was passed and lost momentum. He got a 28 day ban, should make him more attentive in future!
Hi guys,
For anyone interested in how the ratings perform to bfsp, I’ve compiled a spread sheet with the results.
A couple of things; it looks at level stakes (1pt) on each selection per rated race at bfsp and not early prices. The reasons for this are that bfsp is a price everyone can get, as some might not be able to get on at early prices. Also early bf prices are subject to reductions with most NR as opposed to book rule4 reductions which only consider NR under 9/1.
Also, where there are ratings NRs no replacements have been used. I thought id try to keep it as simple as possible to produce some raw data to improve upon.
I’ll post some stats in a bit
Heres a few big price selections that might sneak a place
2-10 sou milly malone 18/1
middlebrook 16/1
3-20 str great value 20/1
3-40 sou sky calling 16/1
4-10 sou cool star 20/1
4-50 str gainsborough art 12/1
Thanks Malcom defo worth a try ive put them in a lucky 31
Did anyone see the russian rave race from yesterday he was clearly gonna win and the jockey just stopped riding him. Just seen it on tv the jockey should be shot.
Morning Dean,Guys,
I have been looking at the selections to try and find a consistently profitable angle, can’t find a way with the dutched selections yet but maybe onto something with the Best singles; to soon to publish yet but I will risk the ‘Toll of doom’ by sharing my filtered choice from Dean’s Best today.
They are 13.40, 14.20, 16.10, and 16.50. I have backed each selection 1 pt win and 4 pts place. Good luck if you decide to follow.
Cheers again Dean 🙂
Todays top Picks
Sunday 15/7/12 All £10(1pt wins)
1-40 sou red not blue 9/4
2-10 sou the grey one 17/2
2-20 str grand lahou 7/2
2-50 str gambo 4/1
3-10 sou kingdom of munster 17/2
3-40 sou robbie 15/2
3-50 str passato 3/1
4-10 sou billy blade 11/4 NAP
4-20 str fosters road 7/2
4-40 sou safe investment 19/2
4-50 str daneva 4/1
5-20 str bob owen 9/4 NEXT BEST
Good morning guys only a couple of meetings today i toyed with the idea of doing the irish aswell but im just gonna test it first.
Sunday 15/7/12 Ratings
1-40 sou red not blue 9/4 £6
danimix 4/1 £4
2-10 sou the grey one 17/2 £5
le grande cheyne 17/2 £5
2-20 str grand lahou 7/2 £4
traditional bob 6/4 £6
2-40 sou morenito 12/1 £4
gingers lad 17/2 £6
2-50 str gambo 4/1 £4
forty five 11/5 £6
3-10 sou kingdom of munster 10/1 £3
molaise lad 18/5 £7
3-20 str fashionable gal 11/2 £6
enroller 14/1 £4
3-40 sou robbie 15/2 £5
shaloon 7/1 £5
3-50 str passato 3/1 £5
nobunaga 2/1 £5
4-10 sou billy blade 11/4 £8 NAP
landenstown star 16/1 £2
4-20 str fosters road 7/2 £6
kings wharf 6/1 £4
4-40 sou safe investment 19/2 £4
spate river 9/2 £6
4-50 str daneva 4/1 £5
lidjo de rouge 7/2 £5
5-10 sou spring in her step 2/1 £5
molly oscar 5/2 £5
5-20 str bob owen 9/4 £7 NEXT BEST
free falling 12/1 £3
Yeah its been a good day Dean, well done and thank you, hopefully get some decent ground over the next few weeks!
Gary
Well at least reem star was bet for a place a bit of a consolation but royal rascal just won aswell so top picks well up today
Hi Dean
Unlucky what an half hour that could have been with a bit more luck! Not to worry!
Gary
4-30 2nd
4-35 2nd
4-45 2nd
4-55 2nd
4 in a row unbelievable
media hype for kirthill
Nice one sean, cant believe russian rave just lost that
Cheers Dean great shout as usual thats me taking my 6 points.Finished for the day.Mount Athos won that easy.
yeah thanks johnny im gonna try an find time to go through junes results see if i can see anything in there
NR replacements
3-55 no replacement NO BET
4-35 brockfield
5-40 no replacement full £10 on red highlites
6-40 cross of lorraine
Hi sorry guys just got back in replacements
sir john hawkwood 1-40
Loads of Non Runners today, hope yesterdays disaster wont extend today.
Fluctuate, lieutenant kojack NR any replacements
Cheers Dean
@mark-you’d have been warmer moving to the south pole 🙂
Sun, whats that ? Was that the thing in the sky we saw in april for a few days lol.
I moved to the south coast because the weather was supposed to be nicer, should have clarified which country lmao !!!
Thanks again Dean,i don’t mind logging down the race types and number of runners for the winners if it’ll help see any pattern emerge,i’m fine doing it all next week,but then i’m away for 2 weeks,hopefully getting some sun!
Asthere are loads of big price runners to day ive done a few value selections just for fun.
2-10 luhaif 18/1
2-25 TEPMOKEA 22/1
2-35 hurricane lady 12/1
3-00 licence to till 20/1
right step 25/1
3-10 new mirza 20/1
3-25 librano 18/1
3-50 megamunch 28/1
3-55 boomshackerlacker 14/1
6-10 ham roys legacy 16/1
Ok at last here are todays ratings
Saturday 14/7/12
1-40 nwm ardmay 11/1 £4
fluctuate 5/1 £6
1-55 yor silvery moon 15/2 £5
levitate 8/1 £5
2-00 new strictly ballroom 7/5 £6
shrewd 9/4 £4
2-10 nwm olympic glory 15/8 £6
maxentius 10/3 £4
2-15 chs mandi lexi 7/2
boom and bloom 5/6 NO BET NO VALUE
2-25 yor crackentorp 9/1 £5
mount athos 9/1 £5
2-35 new russian rave 6/1 £4
eppernay 4/1 £6
2-40 nwm atlantic sport 12/1 £4
bonnie brae 6/1 £6
2-50 chs orpsie boy 14/1 £4
parisian pyramid 7/1 £6
3-00 yor area fifty one 9/1 £5
kirthill 10/1 £5
3-10 new definightly 8/1 £4
marek 11/4 £6
3-20 nwm society rock 9/2 £6
fire lilly 12/1 £4
3-25 chs our jonathon 5/2 £6
imperial djay 7/2 £4
3-35 yor hamish mcgonagall 11/2 £6
caledonia lady 8/1 £4
3-50 new hototo 6/1 £5
lyric ace 8/1 £5
3-55 nwm bircham 9/4 £5
rocky ground 9/4 £5
4-00 chs monshak 14/5 £6
ruacana 4/1 £4
4-10 yor shrimpton 13/2 £4
garswood 2/1 £6
4-20 new poet 7/2 £5
qaraaba 3/1 £5
4-30 nwm rated 8/1 £4
oasis cannes 11/2 £6
4-35 chs lieutenant kojack 7/2 £6
bright applause 13/2 £4
4-45 yor reem star 16/1 £4
rumh 9/1 £6
4-55 new producer 9/4 £6
silverheels 11/2 £4
5-05 nwm local hero 13/2 £5
john louis 13/2 £5
5-10 chs tango sky 5/2 £7
half a billion 7/1 £3
5-20 yor royal rascal 10/3 £6
polski max 7/1 £4
5-30 new sansili 7/2 £7
handles for forks 8/1 £3
5-40 ham red highlites 6/4 £7
modern lady 15/2 £3
5-45 chs lolita lebron 13/2 £5
our boy jack 7/1 £5
6-10 ham rock canyon 7/4 £6
economic crisis 5/2 £4
6-40 ham sovereign street 7/4 £8
cut the cackle 16/1 £2
7-15 ham klynch 6/1 £5
roker park 5/1 £5
7-50 ham qubuh 4/1 £6
mark anthony 11/2 £4
8-20 ham sky high diver 7/2 £4
daring indian 5/2 £6
8-50 ham brown pete 9/2 £5
georgebernardshae 9/2 £5
late again this morning soo many horses here are the top picks first ill have the ratings in about ten mins
all selections £10 (1pt)
Saturday 14/7/12
1-55 yor silvery moon 15/2
2-15 chs boom and bloom 5/6 NO BET
2-25 yor crackentorp 9/1
2-35 new russian rave 6/1
3-10 new definightly 8/1
3-25 chs our jonathon 5/2
3-35 yor hamish mcgonagall 11/2
3-50 new hototo 6/1
4-20 new poet 7/2
4-35 chs lieutennant kojak 7/2 NAP
4-45 yor reem star 9/2 place
4-55 new producer 9/4
5-20 yor royal rascal 7/1
5-30 new sansili 7/2
6-40 ham sovereign street 7/4 NEXT BEST
Morning fellow punters,i was lucky yesterday as i didnt have a bet.But today is another day,gonna follow Dean again an im gonna be stopping at a winner.If that happens in race 1 then so be it if not will increase my stakes by 2 points,then take the profit and wait till tomorrow.
@Dave the best place where you can get great stats is Aidrian Massey i did have them but when my laptop got updated the muppet wiped all my data off.Try looking for him like i say his stats are incredible.
Good luck today guys.
Adrian Massey has not done ratings for at least 18 months
Morning Dean
Do you have a spreadsheet with the past selections on….If you have I have next week off and would have the chance to take a look at the Race Types and a few other things to see were we are winning and losing…….would take to much time to go back over all the posts and input them manually….if you don’t maybe someone else does……….if not it would have to be something that is started so would be a while before we have any worthwhile data
Adrian Massey has not done ratings for over 18 months
Morning all
Well I was up yesterday overall. I use the ratings as a guide and with some other information try and pick two or three decent bets. Yesterday I had deans nap which duly obliged (thanks dean) and had deepsand to place. I try and find 8 runner races for the place betting as on betfair if there is a non runner you still get the 3 places paid.
Dean im very disappointed that you didn’t give me the winner of all 14 races yesterday. Must try harder!! 🙂
Good morning guys yes i agree a pretty bad day all round its very difficult when there are so many good horses (usually the festivals and saturdays) but i also think we were a bit unlucky.
On the ratings out of 27 races we had 22 places(1st,2nd,3rd) ive been reading what you guys were saying about betting to place and as Gaz said i think the strike rate/or the odds would have to be quite a bit higher to make significant profit but if anyone does have the time to do the research that would be appreciated. Another thing i would like to research but simply dont have the time is the type of race that wins most, the ones that win least, I know the ratings do work but if we could get the stats we could probably eliminate a lot of races were we lose so any volunteers would be much appreciated also. Thanks be back in a few hours with todays ratings. Dean
Guys
I have said this before on Brian’s page.
Gambling is gambling, u are going to have losing days and lots of them and if u can’t learn to accept that then this prob isn’t for u.
I’m sure Dean and others are well aware it was a losing day but it serves no purpose in coming on here and rubbing it in.
Dean will publish his results weekly/monthly and u have to look at the overall picture not 1 or 2 days results.
Tomorrow is another day and u move on. thanks for taking the time to share ur tips Dean and good luck tomorrow.
terrible day !!!!!!! – conditions ? – or just a bad day at the office ?
not the best Peter,but i suppose that’s the nature of gambling,(and Friday the 13th to boot),ah well,had a good week besides,keep yr chins up everyone,these things happen in this wonderful sport….cheers Dean,we’ve had some great days with your selections,and i know we’ll have many more 🙂
any body else had a very bad day, or is it only me, lost alot of points, and money.
@Steve
Yes, I only do internet or phone, I don’t know how mobile might differ, presume it is a different site from your comment.
You have to go onto their site to access this, you cannot for instance open a betslip for selections through an odds comparison site like ‘oddschecker’
@Greg
I have been looking @ strike rate and prices in place market over recent days too. I do not yet have a strategy or view on best approach, it is ‘work in progress’ but I hope to find a profitable angle.
It is a lot of research and we may be duplicating effort.
If we can agree on what we are looking for is anyone interested in sharing the work-load as well as the outcome? If enough of you guys step forward we could maybe do one day each?
Hi Malcolm
I use bet365 mobile and I’ve tried to do forecasts on there but can’t seem to get them up. Are you talking about their main site?
At last a second place that we wanted Go on elusive kate
Good afternoon Guys,
Placing REVERSE FORECASTS.
and determining if they are value before placement.
An update on correspondence I had with Gaz yesterday.
You can place these on-line @ Bet365 (other bookies are available but most only do SP so you cannot decide if the bet is value).
Go to B365 site, select the race, scroll down below the list of runners.
You need to do 2 separate forecasts. Tick 1st for sel. A and 2nd for sel. B, click on ‘Add to betslip’ Then repeat, switching 1st and 2nd around.
Look at the betslip, this will then show the return for £1.00 stakes.
If you think it is value enter your stake and place bet. If you are betting in the live market the price may change frequently and you will need to accept change and place bet before it changes again.
However, you need not wait until Live market; if you are confident in Dean’s selections and want to place a rev. forecast do it early – they offer Best Odds Guaranteed. Shame ‘City Image’ didn’t bag 2nd for me in the 2.25…
Have fun
Malcolm
Thanks for that Greg, that’s an excellent strike rate, my concern would be that the place only market is such narrow margins that 50% would probably break even or there abouts??
Hi guys,
Currently working through all selections since the 28th June to see what the p/l is at bfsp. Interestingly the strike rate for all selections to place is just shy of 50%.
Thats only up to and including the 8th July
Cheers
Greg
Tell me about it Dean – think a bloke called Alex asked about place only betting. Said to paper trade and let us know. Think he might only be doing it on the top picks though.
Paper trading placed. i wss hoping someone might go over past history with places and it sounds like they are. i would love to trial it myself but i am only a few weeks old with gambling and prob have too many trials on the go already
2nd &3rd again in the first dont know how many we had testerday
Gaz i personaly use fx pro but theres loads to choose from just open a demo account and study baby pips
some replacements
1-20 nwm savannah days 10/1 to replace perfect step
1-50 nwm mince 4/1 to replace sholan
3-00 the obvious one would be golden lilac but i think elusive kate has a chance of a place @9/2 to replace chachamaidee
Dean, ahhh right, excellent – I hadn’t realised you could just sort of cap your losses or profits using the software. That IS handy and good to know then. Where do you do these trades through then?
Dean, any replacements for Perfect Step 13:20 NWM and Sholaan 13:50 NWM? Cheers
I wouldn’t have the neccesary cojonas or bank to do that mate, but well done if its comes off.
Gaz on a lot of my trades yes you do have to keep an eye on it as im dipping in and out of the markets very quickly but as long as you have your stop loss and take profit set correctly then you can pretty much initiate the trade and leave it alone. ive just opened a trade about 20 mins ago (sell gbp/usd) after 5 mins i could have took a £100 profit at the moment its £120 but ive moved my stop loss up from £2000 to just £180 and i will just let it ride as im confident it will hit at least 1.539 which will give me a £2100 profit and if it does happen to go the other way ive lost £180
Dean, I’d love to make a tenth of what you make on the forex. Just really don’t know how to go on with it. I know you said read up on baby pips etc. But whne you’re doing it, I presume it’s something you have to watch avidly. Not like you can put on at like 8am, then go back at 9am to see how it’s going cos you could have lost a fortune right?
well fair play to you Dean,and to your dad for having the foresight to teach you early,i sincerely hope it continues,i’ve dipped my toe in it a few years ago,but only with a very small bank,a friend gave me a copy of early bird trading system…it’s a bloody minefield in there!
And cheers for pointing out snow angel yesterday 🙂
its just second nature to me now johnny my father was teaching me to trade futures at 12 yrs old
Well i finished 8 points up on the ratings sorry guys i just didnt have time to post NR replacements but sounds like most of you banked some decent points. I also had a £50 ew on snow angel but that doesnt count in the p/l
Bit of a lottery today so many good horses i will be playing cautiously
Cheers once again Dean,hopefully no interruptions for me today,good luck everyone…been looking at your forex page,hell fire,it’s maybe aswell I could never make as much as you’ve made,I’d have gone out like Jon Entwhistle a long time ago 🙂
Todays Top Picks
Friday 13/7/12
1-50 nwm sholan 7/1 £10 win
2-05 yrk miss you too 8/13 NO BET
2-25 nwm city image 5/1 £10 win
2-50 new varnish 3/1 £10 win
3-00 nwm maybe 8/1 £10 win
3-10 yrk blue lotus 5/1 £10 win
3-25 new euxton hall 7/1 £10 win
5-10 new shades of grey 5/1 £10 win NAP
5-30 yrk trail blaze 10/3 £10 win
6-00 chs hayek 8/1 £10 win
6-30 chs rockme cockney 7/1 £10 win
8-10 chs niceofyoutotellme 7/2 £10 win NEXT BEST
8-40 chs party royal 9/2 £10 win
9-10 chs hydrant 13/2 £10 win
Good morning here are todays ratings
Friday 13/12/12
1-20 nwm perfect step 3/1 £6
riot of colour 9/1 £4
1-40 new elegant in silk 5/1 £5
jathabah 11/2 £5
1-50 nwm sholan 7/1 £7
accession 14/1 £3
2-05 yrk miss you too 8/13
montcliffe 3/1 NO BET NO VALUE
2-15 new ayaar 7/2 £4
one word more 2/1 £6
2-25 nwm city image 5/1 £4
sendmylovetorose 11/4 £6
2-35 yrk radio gaga 12/1 £5
boastful 9/1 £5
2-50 new varnish 3/1 £5
secret quest 11/5 £5
3-00 nwm maybe 8/1 £5
chachamaidee 12/1 £5
3-10 yrk blue lotus 5/1 £4
foray 9/5 £6
3-25 new euxton hall 7/2 £6
master of war 5/1 £4
3-35 nwm requested 9/2 £5
alfonso de sousa 9/2 £5
3-45 yrk rios rosanna 10/1 £5
edmaaj 9/1 £5
4-00 new white crest 6/1 £5
superior edge 8/1 £5
4-10 nwm awake my soul 6/1 £4
marshgate lane 3/1 £6
4-20 yrk jamaican bolt 14/5 £7
secret witness 8/1 £3
4-35 new little rocky 3/1 £5
aldwick bay 7/2 £5
4-55 yrk fury 11/10 £8
new hampshire 12/1 £2
5-10 new shades of grey 5/1 £5
jolly roger 9/2 £5
5-20 nwm ariyfa 12/1 £4
hallings comet 11/2 £6
5-30 yrk trail blaze 10/3 £6
personal touch 5/1 £4
5-50 chp sweet world 7/1 £5
pandorica 9/1 £5
6-00 chs hayek 8/1 £5
illustrious prince 11/1 £5
6-30 chs rockme cockney 7/2 £6
viking warrior 7/1 £4
7-05 chs sonko 13/2 £5
jwala 5/1 £5
7-40 chs lady ibrox 2/1
ask the guru 10/11 NO BET NO VALUE
8-10 chs nicefyoutotellme 7/2 £7
deepsand 11/1 £3
8-40 chs party royal 9/2 £4
slipstream angel 2/1 £6
9-10 chs hydrant 13/2 £5
party line 6/1 £5
i look at top selections and rated horses then if can get a good price above 3.0 on betfair i back it to get placed
Interesting idea Lee,there are loads seem to make the frame,do you just place bet the top selections or both rated horses?
morning everyone
dean good work again i backed a few of the horses to get placed again, was in profit after the afternoon races so decided to stop but then had 1 more bet on jane lachette in 7:55 finished the day 10 points up
good luck everyone
lee
Hey dean ur a legend got 4 out of five i picked from ur selections yesterday thanks for ur time and effort lets hope today is more of yesterday luck :)))))
Good Morning Johnny, it was just one of those days yesterday, apart from the first at newmarket eveything else went wonky lol. Decided to do the laying system cos i couldn’t get a winner or was missing them, busy etc. Had four straight profits on the laying, now on a losing run of ten races. Boy its a bumpy ride lol, to top it all didnt dee the post about snow angel until after the off, missed it by a matter of seconds.
Have a great day and be lucky.
Morning Mark,good job I cut the grass yesterday,it seems we’ve had summer for this year..how did everyone do yest?
I was flitting in and out,ended up 4 points to the good,brilliant spot with snow angel Dean,good luck to everyone today
Morning all,
Having looked outside and noticed the miserable weather, it looks like a laying day today unless you know of a few horses with webbed feet lol.
Have a good day everyone and be lucky.
Best Regards
Mark W.
Dean, so generous, only recently followed you – great shout Snow Angel, thanks
Hi Dean
any suggestions for a replacement for tiger cub 845? Just noticed its a non runner.
Thanks
Dave
Snow Angel at 12/1 thank you so much Dean.
by the way i meant to replace jet acclaim with snow angel in the top picks lmao i wish
Think i was speaking to johnny at the time when i mentioned it hope all you guys were on snow angel how they made bint youzmain favourite from stall 10 is beyond me
Cracking shout on Snow Angel Dean, Wasn’t in your picks but you said it had a good chance. Backed at 12s earlier!
Snow Angel romps home, WD Dean! 🙂
Good shout on Snow Angel!
Malcolm,
I could be wrong, but if you were quoted a price before the off, it’s more likely to be something similar to the tote exacta rather than a forecast. Both are similar bets other than for the reason we’re discussing really. And obviously a reverse forecast is two x straight forecasts.
Hi Gaz,
Many thanks for trying to answer my question, I will try that approach.
When I have placed f.casts b4 I found some bookies would quote a price
(Bet365 were one) whereas others were based upon SP. I wanted a price to determine if the bet represented value. I can do the maths if I know the formula……
Hi Malc,
I wasn’t on the 3.15 but I was on the 3.45 when No Poppy was just nudged out of 2nd at the line. Grrr.
As for calc’ing forecasts – I don’t think the man on the street can because there’s things like draw bias that comes into too. A “dividend” is declared post race finish depending obviously on the 1st 2 home then other determining factors too.
As a rough guide, I do (stake x odds of 1st + Stake) x odds of 2nd – original stake. The bit in brackets is essentially what you’d return for a win bet. So it’s win bet x 2nd placed odds minus original stake. This normally gets you near as damn it.
Hi Guys,
Enjoying this, everyone is so helpful, gets us through the bad days.
Glad to have a winner as I missed the 13.20. Am Dutching for Level Stakes on the Bot. 15.15 would have made a great R.Fcast, was anyone on?
Does anyone know how to manually calculate Rev. Fcast odds?
Tried asking Bookies but can’t find anyone over 50 still taking the calls..
Hi Dean, gr8 work as always yesterday, i have decided to back all of your ratings races, 2horse selections ad finitum, you said previously it was your most successful route. you recently said that you called it a day at 8pts or so, is this a recent development for you? The reason i ask is that previously you said that the ratings route was ave.’ing about £65 per day,was this when / with you betting on all ratings races?
Just a query, as i generally spend an hour or so putting everything on in the morn at hopefully bog/best prices!
@Alex – not a bad idea Alex, paper trade it and let us know how it goes?
good luck for rest of afternoon guys gotta take the wifey out for lunch before she lynches me.
And the NAP romps it Deano!!
1st winner again Dean 🙂
Hello All,
Dean, do you rate all race types e.g. Handicaps, maidens, sellers etc or only the races with a lot of past historical data?
I only ask because maybe the ratings work best for certain types of races and not so well for others.
Also, have you ever calculated your P/L to BFSP?
Cheers
Greg
Cheers guys your right im online about 16 hours a day
couple of NRs
1-50 replace sir prancelot with chillworth icon
6-30 replace jet acclaim with breezily
and talking of value selections with jet acclaim out i think snow angel has a cracking chance plum draw and currently 12/1
@Dean-as Gaz n Gary say,its entirely your call,you do more than enough as it is,plus you have the forex aswell now,like the lads above say, the info you post is greatly appreciated,and it’s there for folk to use as it suits us…
we’re all individuals 🙂
Hi Dean
I’m with Gaz on this one,you give a lot of horses out and people should use them as they see fit and try to build there banks, there is no get rich quick scheme with higher priced horses they are generally there prices for a reason, but also there can be value with them. People need to be aware though that with big prices the strike rate goes lower and that barren runs can be longer and people are quick to start complaining when things aren’t going well! There are so many variables with horse racing and even more when you are aiming at longer odds horses! Just ensure you don’t take your finger off the pulse Dean whilst looking at the other things as all the lads on here know how much time you invest.
Good luck with whatever you decide.
Gary
Dean, if people just want your top picks, they have them, if people want your ratings picks, they have them. If people want the two selections from the races you pick for your top picks, they can combine the two. It’s up to them – I don’t see that you should have to do anymore than you already do my good man! I know you want to help, believe me you help tremendously! As I see it, people can take your ratings picks and top picks and mix/do with them as they see fit surely? If you want to add some value selections for the likes af Dave too – then that’s entirely your prerogative my good fellow 🙂
Dave barnett is asking for bigger price selections which i did try a few days ago anyone got any opinions on posting some value selections? i know we have a lot of selections already would this be too much???
Hi Gaz that was another thing i was going to mention quite a few rfc coming in lately something to keep an eye on. And i know what your saying about the top picks but a lot of people are put off by dutching so dont know what to do.
@Dean, not sure what to suggest with your “top picks” but the two picks on the ratings are defo the way to go. So maybe you do need to combine them in your top picks. There were a number of RFC’s that came in yesterday (I haven’t been backing them though grrr) one last night with Billy Blade and Comanche Dawn come in at SP of around 39/1!!
@Johnny – morning buddy. Hope you’re all good.
Good luck to everyone today!!
How would top picks go with place only?
Alex the date at the side is when the thread was started.
Good morning to you all,cheers again Dean,bit of an early kick off with the hosses today
@Alex-no idea what the score is with the dates Alex,Dean normally puts his selections up between 8 and 9.30
Actually dezzie that is a very good point about also backing the second horse with the top picks its something ive been considering obviously the ratings are working but then with the top picks its down to me to pick out the ones i think are best from the ratings. I do definately think the top picks need tweaking anymore suggestions would be appreciated. Dean
Todays Top Picks
Thursday 12/7/12
1-20 nwj shantaram 7/4 £10 win NAP
2:25 NWJ fennel bay 8/1 £10 win
2:40 DON a certain romance 4/6 NB
3:00 NWj red cadeaux 11/4 £10 win NEXT BEST
3:35 NWJ fleeting smile 15/8 £10 win
3:45 DON magic destiny 11/2 £10 win
4:20 DON shaloo diamond 13/2 £10 win
4:50 DON fol hollow 11/2 £10 win
5:25 DON dr red eye 12/5 £10 win
6:00 FOL stirring ballad 3/1 £10 win
6:15 EPS colnicas lad 3/1 £10 win
6:30 FOL jet acclaim 7/1 £10 win
6:45 EPS hipster 15/8 £10 win
Good morning here are todays ratings
Thursday 12/7/12
1:20 NWJ valiant 5/2 £4
shantaram 7/4 £6
1:50 NWJ sir prancelot 13/5 £5
gale force ten 16/5 £5
2:05 DON tarantula lady 11/2 £5
terenzium 7/1 £5
2:25 NWJ fennel bay 8/1 £4
hajras 11/2 £6
2:40 DON a certain romance 4/6
burning dawn 6/1 NO BET NO VALue
3:00 NWJ red cadeaux 11/4 £7
dandino 10/1 £3
3:15 DON macchiara 13/5 £5
pearl nation 11/5 £5
3:35 NWJ fleeting smile 15/8 £7
pearl sea 8/1 £3
3:45 DON magic destiny 11/2 £5
no poppy 13/2 £5
4:05 NWJ mukhadram 9/2 £6
mister music 8/1 £4
4:20 DON shaloo diamond 13/2 £4
ultimate destiny 9/4 £6
4:40 NWJ cardinal 19/1 £3
gorgeous goblin 7/1 place £7
4:50 DON fol hollow 11/2 £5
gracies games 13/2 £5
5:25 DON dr red eye 12/5 £6
aerodynamic 7/1 £4
6:00 FOL stirring ballad 3/1 £5
engrossing 11/5 £5
6:15 EPS colnicas lad 3/1 £6
ermyntrude 13/2 £4
6:30 FOL jet acclaim 7/1 £6
snow angel 10/1 £4
6:45 EPS hipster 15/8 £8
cappadocia 10/1 £2
7:05 FOL even bolder 15/2 £4
big wave 9/2 £6
7:20 EPS lieutennant kojak 11/2 £5
reggie perrin 4/1 £5
7:40 FOL hi note 6/1 £6
el libertador 10/1 £4
7:55 EPS energize 3/1 £5
jane lachatte 4/1 £5
8:15 FOL curly come home 7/2 £5
petaluma 9/2 £5
8:30 EPS yojimbo 12/1 £3
henry clay 11/4 £7
8:45 FOL tiger cub 6/1 £6
hubood 12/1 £4
9:00 EPS aye aye digby 6/1 £6
cocohatchee 8/1 £4
Hi new to the site
What is the story with the dates beside the posts 07.09.12 while the tips are for the 11.7.12 What time do the tips usually come through
great work dean, thx for sharing this info with us..
done a few of your selections with the bigger prices to get placed which paid of
lee
Dezzie i ended up 5 points up yesterday dutching.Like Dave said he stopped at a profit it depends on what you can afford.Remember the most important thing in racing discipline.Only bet what you can afford to lose,ive seen to many people end up on the poor side.I think the best thing to do is papertrade until you want to find out how to split your stakes.Im gonna try to get my head round this laying lark too.
Whatever you decide to do good luck.
Sean
Dezzie i following the 2 selections in one race and follow Deans advice about spliting the £10. i usually place the bets in chunks so I will place them for the first seven races and see how they get on. Yesterday for example i was up by 10 points before the night racing started so stopped cos i was happy with the points. i do have a smart phone though that allows me to do this whilst out and about and on dinner breaks etc so it might be tricky for everyone to do the same thing
Dave
Dean, is it possible if u could give me daily selections for big-priced horses, so I can hit the bookies hard, your selections look promising, and what do I need to do about the footie syndicate. Will Jason send mean e-mail?.
I have been following the two top rated horse selections, dutching £10 over the 2 horses, and have managed the following over the last 3 days:
09/07/12: +£52
10/07/12: -£45
11/07/12: +£124
Total: +131
If you had followed the top rated picks you would have been, roughly (depending on the odds):
09/07/12: +£35
10/07/12: -£37.50
11/07/12: +£22
Total: £19.50
I was wondering how different people are using Dean’s ratings, I am currently just using his top tips and ended up down today, did anyone who follows all his ratings backing both finish up, I was thinking backing both horses but only in his top tips and see how it goes because backing all is to expensive for me.
Your Comments
Really good day today Dean following your 2 in each race.Much appreciated for letting us use your selections,your a star.
cliff
Hi dean what is this forex thing your referring to I’ve tried googling it but nothing makes sense I no u said its for pros but could u just explain it in Lehmanns terms for me cheers pal
Johnny
have stopped for day.
only did 3 suitable races and made a nice profit, so I’m happy and have left other 2 races 7.20 and 9.20 kemp….
Will give my fingers a rest ready for tomorrow.
will have look at sporting life late morning to see if any suitable races…
onward and definitely upwards 🙂
well i stopped at 8 points but gutted i missed stupenda.
Hi Dean
Great day today. 10 points up overall so just logged out of betfair and am going to relax for the evening and keep an eye on the rest of the ratings to see how they go. Great work
Dave
Your Comments No problem Mark, lets hope deans as good at forex trading. 🙂
Mark i will post my best trade of the day between 7-8 am every morning and sometimes another on afternoon if there is anything i think is worth having a go at.
Dean..How do I get your tips please..I could do with a bit of luck..cheers
Dan, thanks for that, got account with IG.
Cheers mate
Hi guys for anyone thats interested the forex and footie page is now open. Dean
Your Comments
@mark-yeah,Brians takes ages to do,not sure anyone could do it for a full days racing,the keyboard would melt
Brian/Johnny
sorry post doesn’t make sense at end..
2.50 catt fav about 4/1 and then next 3/4 9-11/1
seems to work brilliantly if first 4-6 horses all around 4/1-6/1 ish 🙂
roll on kempton….
Just doing basic £2 stakes to start as lots finger work!!!!!
bet angel looks so complicated
Started to put bets on about 20 mins before race as takes ages…
Well with catterick off and 8 points banked on the ratings im paper trading the rest
Hi Brian/ Johnny
Tried the “lay the field” today on ling2.30, catt 2.50 and 3.50 (all under 14fl.
didn’t quite get sums right as did 1.8 for £4
but overall so far made money and looking good for kempton.
Noticed only race that lost money was one with 2.50 which had funny odds fav at about 4/1 and the rest 9-11/1
whereas other two races had first 4/5 horses all about same oddsish
may adjust system to suit but so far “I’m in the money” 🙂 🙂
wow just forget the top picks and back all the 2nd rated lol also why i put no bet on the 2-40 ireally dont know brains gone to mush
Dan, i tried opening account last week, 2 reasons given for being refused account, self employed and discharged bankrupt.
Dean, guess who only did top picks today lol
Try IG index or GKFX, I was discharged two years ago and have accounts with both,
Dean
I am with you on the Bondesire race couldn’t believe it! I never got to see the still of the photo on the line.
Gary
🙂
always seem to have a good start lately its just the rest of the day that f***s
it up
yeah gaz same as bondesire on monday as long as i live i wont beleive that 1 got beat
yeah,backed them as singles for similar amounts…you’ve had some great early results lately
@Johnny – ahhh ok, cheers.
@Dean – great stuff my friend. I could’ve sworn the Sixties just got up then!
Yeah johnny 2 nice rfc just shame they werent the other way around for the top picks
top start again Dean 🙂
@Gaz-if you check back up,i think you seem to have mixed bits of both systems up there Gaz,i’ll email you when the afternoon racings over if that’s ok
@Johnny, cheers for the guide mate. So then I combine that with doing it on all the races that meet the criteria you’ve previously suggested right? i.e. 12-14f races where the horses are all similar odds and 3/1 or bigger?!?! And then lay every horse at the prices you said before?!?!
Might be worth emailing me on gazcoyne@hotmail.co.uk so we don’t clog Dean’s page up haha!
cheers Jason,
@bill- in my humble opinion,not really Bill,you can load up any prices before hand and click keep in play
Sorted now Johnny, should be up there. Thanks for the detailed explanation
put up a quick guide to laying on betfair earlier,it seems to have disappeared..the curse of lorna strikes..any idea what happened with it Jason?
Spoke to jason and he is going to put a new page up for the footie n forex
replacement in the 8-20 officer in command 7/1 to replace courtesey call
I’m up for the football only, can’t do forex ( discharged bankrupt ).
Being a discharged bankruptcy should’nt stop u getting an account mark.
Hi Dean
I would also be keen to look at the forex and the football.
Thanks and keep up the great work you do.
Martin.
Hi Dean
I’d be keen to have a look at the forex.
Craig
Hi Johnny, Apologies for jumping on the bandwagon but i too am a novice in the intricacies of laying, although i understand the principle. Is it neccessary to have some kind of bot (automatic machine) running on betfair ?, and could you recommend or suggest a suitable one ?
Cheers Bill
yeah sean approx 3 points down on each
was just gonna replace the Nr in the 9-10 but now it seems they’re all non runners boycotting the race or something.
Your Comments
non runner in the 8.20 any substitute for this one Dean. Thanks
cliff
Hi and morning geants how are we today.Did we all incure loses last night.My spreadsheet went west and lost info.Ive looked at my Daq account and it seems to be down a few points,is that correct or not?
Cheers
Sean
very interested in your forex info dean
Rob if your not a million % sure what your doing with forex i would implore you to study Baby pips and when your sure you understand it all then go through it all again. plus while your learning most sites offer demo accounts which can be very helpfull.
Defo interested dean in Forex, i have been looking nervously i ma add, at this alot, but there is alot to take in, need a hand for this i think!
Betfair fine now Johnny, ready when u are.
Morning everyone, first post on here although I’ve been following all your comments etc for about a week now. Just wanted to know how you use Dean’s tips and which of his two sets is most profitable. I tried top picks on Sunday and lost out then Monday his dutching selections and came out 4 1/2 points up (£10 stakes) then lost again yesterday using the same selections.
The laying the field seems like a good idea which I’m trying out on the 2:30 at Lingfield.
By the way I use Betting Assistant from Gruss Software, £6 per month and dead easy to use.
Cheers mark,sounds like i got off lightly compared to you..betfair’s back on now,so here goes…apologies for stating the obvious on a few points,now put those fags out and stop talking at the back please …
As Brian said on an earlier post,when you lay a horse (or anything else),you become the bookie,and state it won’t win,so for instance in the 2.00 at lingfield today,if you click on the 3rd fav,Desert Red lay box,the lay box is the pink one,at the mo it comes up at 7 to 1,(which is actually 6 to 1,as betfair use decimal prices,the extra 1 is your stake) ,and put 2 quid in the stake box,it tells you your liability if the horse wins,is 12 quid.
If it doesn’t win,you get 2 quid minus the betfair commission,which on mine,they take 5p off every quid i win.
The beauty of Betfair is you can put a lower price in the odds box,just click and delete the original one and put any price in,including decimal points if you wish,so say i put 3.4 in,the liability is now 4.80 for 2 quid,but when you confirm the bet,it will ask you if want to cancel in play or keep in play.
If you cancel,as soon as the race starts,if the bet isn’t matched,it will cancel it,if you click keep in play,as the race unfolds,the price fluctuates depending how the horse is running,and if it reaches your price,you’ll get the bet matched.
What Brian’s system does (and to a lesser extent,the one i posted yesterday) is take advantage of anyone betting in play that thinks a horse is running well,or ones that might be coasting with a few furlongs to go,so prices will come down in running,and it would match all the bets that people put on different horses who are in with a chance,so you’re hoping as many as possible are in with a shout and lots of the in play bets being matched,as there can only be one winner.
Hope that helps 🙂
Today feels like a good day, some many punters with identical picks, in some races, I may just go with a cheeky lucky 15 pick today. Great stuff Dean, been following ur picks now and steadily building the bank.
Hi guys Jason has kindly offered to give us another page for forex and we could probably use it for our football system aswell could you let me know how many would be interested in the forex trading. Thanks Dean
Had the same problem here with Betfair, thanks for clearing that up. Glad to hear you had a great evening. My mrs has discovered Dallas 2012, 5 hours of it last night, couldn’t find a rope strong enough to suspend myself from the ceiling, she wouldn’t have noticed anyway bless her.
Cheers again Dean,
@Gaz- Hi Gaz,was gonna do the lay thing earlier,but having trouble logging onto betfair this morning,it keeps logging me out,anyone else having issues with it? Thought it might be easier to understand if folk have their betfair tab opened up at the same time..weird,maybe Dean’s tips have flipped it over the edge!
Just rang the buggers,there’s a problem with the site,if its ok i’ll run through it when the site’s back up,hopefully before todays racing starts,back to normal with the amount of meetings today chaps,summers here!
The concert was really good thanks Gaz,a young girl sang someone like you by Adele,it was brilliant,the ear plugs came out for that one 🙂
Cheers Dean. Top Bloke
Todays Top Picks
Wednesday 11/7/12
2-00 lin vexilium 11/2 £10 win
2-10 yar the sixties 5/2 £10 win
2-40 yar cappielow park 6/5 £10 win nap
2-50 cat serene oasis 5/1 £10 win
3-20 cat kians delight 3/1 £10 win
3-50 cat untold melody 9/2 £10 win
4-50 cat emeralds spirit 11/4 £10 win
5-00 lin bay laurel 5/2 £10 win
5-10 yar tinseltown 15/8 £10 win (next best)
5-20 cat roc de prince NB
6-40 wor miss midnight 8/1 £10 win
7-20 kem black cadilac 9/2 £10 win
8-10 wor billy blade 4/1 £10 win
@Johnny,
Having read a few posts on this thread, I understand it a LITTLE better now, but still nto fully getting the laying thing. So If you can email me (gazcoyne@hotmail.co.uk) or post it on here in proper laymans (thicko for me) terms, I’d appreciate it.
Cheers mate.
P.s. how was the concert?!?!
Good morning here are todays ratings
Wednesday 11/7/12
2-00 lin vexilium 11/2 £5
arte del calcio 5/1 £5
2-10 yar the sixties 5/2 £5
uncomplicated 3/1 £5
2-20 cat fly fisher 9/2
jamesbos girl 10/11 fc NO BET NO VALUE
2-30 lin the cornish cowboy 8/1 £5
musically 8/1 £5
2-40 yar cappielow park 6/5
emperors waltz 16/5 NO BET NO VALUE
2-50 cat serene oasis 5/1 £4
lucky money 7/2 £6
3-00 lin marvo 8/1 £5
reaction 13/2 £5
3-10 yar medhyaar 4/11
macchiara 13/2 fc NO BET NO VALUE
3-20 cat kians delight 3/1 £7
herostatus 9/1 £3
3-30 lin gallipot 4/1 £5
lindseys dream 9/2 place £5
3-40 yar saslong 8/1 £4
hail promenader 9/2 £6
3-50 cat untold melody 9/2 £5
baltic bomber 7/2 £5
4-00 lin dew reward 6/1 £5
tallulah mai 7/1 £5
4-10 yar comrade bond 10/1 £4
rough rock 5/1 place £6
4-20 cat ursus 4/1 place £6
rasselas 12/1 £4
4-30 lin boleyn 2/1 £7
wordsaplenty 8/1 £3
4-40 yar secrets away 6/1 £4
darling grace 5/2 £6
4-50 cat emeralds spirit 14/5 £5
dream walker 3/1 £5
5-00 lin bay laurel 5/2 £7
stupenda 14/1 £3
5-10 yar tinseltown 15/8 £7
suzis a class act 12/1 £3
5-20 cat roc de prince 4/6
aliante 4/1 NO BET NO VALUE
5-30 lin mister mackenzie 13/2 £3
jack of diamonds 11/8 £7
6-10 wor well green 6/1 £3
prince of denial 13/8 £7
6-20 kem lady mango 7/1
dvinsky 9/1
6-40 wor miss midnight 8/1 £4
heezagrey 5/1 place £6
6-50 kem nardin 5/1 £4
hoodna 3/1 £6
7-10 wor catch me up 7/1 £3
glen gyle 5/4 £7
7-20 kem black cadilac 9/2 £6
street power 8/1 £4
7-40 wor persian herald 3/1 £5
pearls legend 5/2 £5
7-50 kem decana 5/1 £6
frederick william 9/1 £4
8-10 wor billy blade 4/1 £6
commanche dream 7/1 £4
8-20 kem courtesy call 9/1 £4
silent moment 3/1 £6
8-40 wor changing the guard 9/4 £6
dormouse 7/1 £4
8-50 kem russian ice 22/1 £4
rio grande 10/1 £6
9-10 wor princeley player 7/2 £6
cabimas 10/1 £4
9-20 kem do more buisness 4/1 £6
hilbre court 10/1 £4
Or maybe he has discovered the holy grail of a bet you can’t lose, lol. Come on we can dream can’t we ?
lot of info to sift through today.
Btw to get all features of bet angel works out to 12.50 a month if you subscribe annually
I think deans late for work this morning haha
Yep, blue link underneath Lay heading says all.
same here, just got to get my head around the software lol.
never guess i work in I.T. lol
Waiting for Dean, our lord and master !
Lol. Was looking into that laying last night. looks promising. Just gotta get the bets backed.
Ha ha. I came accross betangel but not tried it yet. i read somewhere tho there is an option on betfair to lay all which might be handy
Where is everybody?
Hiya Mark,didn’t do Brians lay the field yesterday,had a phone call at the same time,so didn’t get the bets on,looks a brilliant idea on paper,as a few have said,there’s only one hoss that wins each race.
And the concert went well,thanks 🙂
Johnny/Brian
How did your “lay the field” go today Johnny?
Hopefully as good as the concert or better (profit paid for ear plugs?)
I am thinking if my previous post is correct about liabilities I may go for a test run on the 2.50 at Catterick (a tight course I believe) and then on the 4.20 as long as odds are ok.
Hopefully after those 2 races i will be in profit and dry pants!!:)
Brian
May not need the extra absorbent pants after all.
I hope i am right that the liabilities are as follows
Level 1 lay all horses at @3.2 for £2 =total liabilities £4.40
3 horses to come in @3.2 and profit made
Level 2 lay all horses @ 2.7 for £2 = total liabilities £3.40
2 horses to come in @ 2.7 and profit made
Level 3 lay all horses @ 2.3 for £2 = total liabilities £2.60
2 horses to come in @ 2.3 and profit made
Level 4 lay all horses @ 1.7 for £5 = total liabilities £3.50
2 horses to come in @ 1.7 and profit made
Level 5 lay all horses @ 1.5 for £5 = total liabilities £2.5
2 horses to come in @ 1.5 and profit made
Total liabilities if only 1 horse comes in at each level is £16.40
So worst case scenario is £16.40 loss overall which is extremely remote if not impossible if minimum sp is 4.0 or over at bf sp and there are at least 3 horses sp of 4.0-6.0
I hope i have got it right?
Is there a tool/ap that is free you can recommend to save my little pinky all the typing?
Hi Brian
Please accept my apologies for the poor grammar in last post!
should be “Looks a bit complicated to paper trade but if done live what sort of bank would you recommend as a minimum?
i think you can use software called betangel. there is a free basic version.
Mark
That’s the way lay all horses at the prices. Your liability will always be the same as there can only be 1 horse that wins I’m not positive on the liability Mark but i think it is just over £16 to £2 stakes! Good luck with it if you go ahead!
Gary
Brian.
am i right in thinking that you lay all horses..@3.2 for £2 then same horse again @2.7 for £2 and so on
presumably as you say tight angled courses best for handicaps up to 14f etc.
Looks a bit complicated to paper trade but id done live what sort of bank would you recommend.
what would the liability be for one race of 8 runners or more?
perhaps a bank to allow for 5 races loosing in a row would be sufficient?
I have laid in past but thought of every horse and the several different prices as well…….
may need some extra absorbent pants? in fact a few pairs?
Brian, thanks for the response it is clearer to me now. I have one more question without anyone thinking i am going totally off subject to Dean’s page but would all lays be matched before the off or is this a system that should be left to run in running. Thanks in advance D
@Dezzie, LAY EVERY HORSE, so each horse will have 5 lays at the prices 3.2, 2.7, 2.3, 1.7, 1.5, at the suggested stakes the liability is £16.40.
So if you have 10 horses you will have placed a total of 50 lays at those prices, your liability will still be 16.40, as there is only one winner of the race.
Brian, I’m just looking at your system and am confused, are you laying every horse at those odds or just the first 5 at those odds? what would you liability be? I’m just looking at a race now and by laying the first horse @3.2 for £2 the next horse @2.7 £2 the 3rd @2.3 £2 and so on for just the first 5 shows all green returns.
I am just proper confused.
I agree 100percent with johnny best forum by a country mile work all day so do my bets at the weekend mixture of Deans and Brians but follow all threads when I come home thinking of taken two weeks holiday and having a real go of it maybe bring my retirement forward (I wish) keep up the good work everybody
yeah really missing lorna not the same without her/him. Anyway im still not 100% sure but i will give it a go paper trading and see how it goes thanks Brian/johnny.
thats ok with me if you’re sound with it Dean,i’ll do it tomorrow if i survive this shool concert tonight..you’re right,you’ve got a great vibe going on here Dean,well done to yourself,Jason and Brian of course,(can i suggest we get lorna back to add some spice and vitriol again,er, maybe not…..)
p.s. right,where’s me ear plugs 🙂
”Laying The Field”
Idea behind this is we become the ‘bookmaker’, do this without emotion!, we are betting the horses to get beat, but selectively at prices we decide not the ‘punter’.
Handicaps up to 12/14 furlongs work best, infact 5f(usually a straight sprint with no bends) are the least profitable, reason being, if a horse blasts out the stalls, it will invariably win without being headed, small tight courses with poor TV angles are a dream!. Watch also if there is a ‘steamer’ especially on the A.W. these gambles rarely miss.
Try to make at sure you have at least 8 runners, with a few horses around the same price. Do not worry if you have one under 3.2 on betfair with others around 4 or 5 , just LAY EVERY horse
3.2, @ £2, 2.7@£2, 2.3@£2, 1.7@£5, 1.5@£5
Best time is around 5 mins before the off, the software that is available make this a painless task.
Watch a few races before you jump in, ‘laying’ is not for everyone, but this method will give you a ‘green screen’ around 90% of the time.
Cheers(better put this on my thread as well!!)
ok johnny no problem
Just my opinion but i think it would be better posted on here for everyone to see. thanks Johnny p.s we must have the friendliest and most helpfull forum on the web
No problem,i’ll try explain it best i can
Dean-i mentioned in an earlier post that i’d meant your good self being compensated after the photo finish you lost out on last night,but my post seems to have disappeared
Hi johnny heres my e-mail look forward to it mate many thanks and much appreciated.
smith6082@sky.com
I’d be very interested in that as well Johnny.
either way’s fine with me Sean
Hi Johnny tather than clutter the site can i give you my e-mail,if Jason and Dean dont mind?Im very interested in learning different ways to bet.I would back Deans and on another account i would lay the field once i know what to do.
Sean
i’m by no means an expert,but fairly confident i know my around the lay side of betfair,so if anyone’s interested i’ll cobble together a quick run through of it tomorrow,bit stuck for time this evening,as my son is playing double bass at a school do.
Your Comments Hi Dean been looking at your top picks the last 3/4 days and it seems good, only thing is that I back in the morning but cannot get the prices that you quote. Would I be better backing at SP rather than the prices quoted. also do you have your profit/loss backing at S/P
Regards
Bill
@Dean-i was meaning your good self and the photo finish that went against you.I was done and dusted halfway through the evening 🙂
@Gaz-that was the weird thing about that day,i’d been up and down so many times,and at the end it almost felt like the money was an afterthought
Johnny, didn’t you bet £1762? @5/2 that would return £6167, at 3/1 that would return £7047. There were ten pairs of expensive pants haha! 😉
Dean – that’s made me feel better, I have no idea how you go about laying horses or what the numbers everyone have been quoting mean!! haha.
Hi guys first and foremost i am a trader but horses are my passion so when it comes to laying i havent got the slightest idea whatt your talking about in theory it sounds great and id love to try it but i think i would need brian or someone with similar experience to really go through it step by step.
@ johnny when you said it doesnt compensate for last night didnt you make a profit. both the ratings and top picks made small profits (2.85) & (3.5)
frightening’s a good word for it Gaz,the hoss was called Amarni or something similar,frankie was on it,came in at 3s,and i had it at 5/2,with bet 365,whoare best odds guaranteed..spent the extra on 10 pairs of new underpants 🙂
Hi Johnny
that was a short lived success story…. only UK and Ireland do in play 🙁
ah well onward and upwards…
@Mark s – not sure about in play for usa racing,i’ve only tried it for UK,be worth having a look tho
Johnny, haha – been there too my son! Frightening really isn’t it. I think I might paper trade the idea little and see how we go like.
hey Johnny
it looks like a good little system 5f’s lay all at 1.7 if odds nr off 3/1 minimum.
just looked at sporting life and loads of races (usa etc ) that are 5f and lots at night.
The card on SL give approx odds but b/f are much lower, so if i can may see if card shows odds 7/2 fav etc and b/f odds much lower 2.5/3.0 what odds are like on off for usa racing..
Just a thought do they do inplay?
@Gaz-good point about the prices,personally i’m happy with level stakes,tho admittedly it takes longer to reach 5 or 6 points,i have vietnam type flashbacks with chasing,6 years ago i started an afternoon trying to win 75 quid following favourites or 2nd favs,it went to the last race,9.20 at Kempton,and my bet was £1726,jeesus,still wake up in a cold sweat sometimes thinking about that day!
ok johnny no problem.
Yeah, that’s what I thought Johnny. Plus with Deans selections none of them are ever short priced and so you wouldn’t need massive bets. Of course Dean takes all the credit and more – his selections are incredible! But I think the two ideas combined almost certainly has legs.
Would love to hear your thoughts Dean?
@tony -i didn’t ! just doing them all one by one,and got a phone call from my son’s school,saying he wasn’t in school,as he hadn’t signed in for the afternoon,so had an rather heated argument with the silly lady (bet she was called lorna),as he is in school but doing rehearsals for a music show tonight,that’s 3 times this term the fools have rang me,and it’s been the same bloody reason every time..sorry,rant over!
@gaz- sounds a top idea,but Dean takes 110% of any credit,i’m a mere mortal! You’re spot on though,it does seem to include a couple of early winners most days
Dean/Johnny,
Just a thought but how about combining Deans selections with the “Favourite backers” type system to a ascertained profit level? In the selections theres always at least one winner, pretty much always one early doors too. I know it means having a bigger starting bank and winning a percentage of that bank each day, but it does kind elminate backing them all and perhaps losing some of the margin in later races. What do you think guys?
Your Comments let us know how you get on johnny in the 3-15 laying the field.
Yep, gr8 start, well done, any subs for the N/R’s Dean?
1st 2 races,what can i say Dean 🙂
@Mark S, yes its called ‘laying the field’, LAY EVERY horse, at those prices before the race and keep in play, there is software available that makes this an easy process, there is courses that are very profitable, but I will leave that for you to find out.
Cheers hope you enjoy the ‘green screen’
Apologies,tried it for the 3.15 Hcp
@mark s …think its lay every horse and keep in play,just trying it for the 2.45,it takes a while,and double check you haven’t pressed any numbers twice!
very good start Dean,probably doesn’t compensate fully for last nights but its a winner 🙂
Hi brian
Not quite sure i get your drift for laying.
do you lay every horse at all those odds and keep in play?
or just any horse that are those odds at the off?
Hi Dean,for idiots like me i have fancied laying but not too sure how to do it.Can you explain in simple terms lol for me,i will papertrade for a few weeks.I dont understand like 3.2-2.2.7 for 2 and so on.
Cheers
cheers Brian,i’ll give it a blast 🙂
@Johnny, here is a better way of ‘laying the field’ most handicap races up to 14 furlongs works best.
LAY @ 3.2 for 2, 2.7 for 2, 2.3 for 2, 1.7 for 5, 1.5 for 5, try it and see, you will be surprised how much you can win every day.
This idea I gave to a friend who has since sold it on, used everyday on another website that concentrate on trading horses.
cheers Dean,here’s a little system i’ve made profit with down the years,feel free to give it a try:
Any 5f handicap race where there is no clear fav (if its 3/1 or lower i leave the race alone unless there are one or two near it in the betting),on betfair,lay every horse at 1.7,you obviously won’t get matched,so click them all to keep in play.
The idea is that with a furlong to go,and if the handicappers done his job,hopefully there are plenty still in with a chance and if you get at least 2 matched bets you’re in profit,i once had a blanket finish and came out with 71 quid,i lay them for £20,so my liability is £14 if only the winner gets matched.
Good luck if you fancy trying it 🙂
Martin i simply couldnt believe it looked like a clear head to me.
Hi kevin i would like to think i am a little more accurate with my trading a 30% strike rate wouldnt really do it for me on forex. a few years ago i had my own financial advisory website and to be honest it was just too much hassle people expect overnight riches and it just doesnt work like that so at the moment im sticking to the horses. If there was enough interest on here i would consider maybe giving a tip a day but as this is a horse racing site i dont know how jason would feel about that. Dean
Dean i thunk jason could give you section for forex Betinfo is a betting site. and finaciak trading is just betting lol. I also dabble in forex and horses. I would be very interested in your Forex tip of the day.
Hi guys ive been looking at higher price horses for a value system for a while now with mixed results. Now im not counting this towards our profits its just paper trading at the moment. i just thought i would share a few of the selections today see how they do. Dean
Value Selections
10/7/12
2-45 wol waabel 16/1 bad draw but c/d winner and 7lb claim defo worth small ew
3-15 wol sir boss 22/1 another c/d winner not done much on turf but back to aw today and maybe ew chance
4-00 pon sos brilliante 80/1 happy on soft and only 9 runners surely must be worth a small ew
4-15 wol aragorn rouge 16/1 back at fave distance and left hand course must surely transfer old form to new yard some time soon EW
8-05 sow basantee 9/1 c/d and going winner ew chance
Your Comments
Hello Dean
Very impressed with your ratings suggestions and accuracy, on an earlier post you mentioned that your main day was spent trading “Forex”.
Are you as accurate with “Forex?” and if so will you be offering suggestions with $/GBP movements.
Regards and thanks for your generous offerings.
Kevin Ryan
Hi I have watched the Bondesire/Penny Garcia race at Ripon last night and I still can’t believe that Penny Garcia won. I have watched it several times and it definitely looks like a Bondesire win to me and I didn’t back either of them. Would love to see the judges photograph on the line though.
After the abandonment at pontefract here is a revised top picks
you may notice that venegazzu and crystal cove were 2nd on the ratings but they were both equal in there final rating score
Tuesday 10/7/12
2-15 wol almaty express 11/2 £10 win
2-45 wol restless bay 7/2 £10 win
3-15 wol venegazzu 7/2 £10 win
3-45 wol christingle 11/5 £10 win
4-15 wol buaiteoir 9/1 £10 win
5-15 wol basle 5/1 £10 win
6-05 sow crystal cove 9/4 £10 win
6-15 utt cabimas 10/11 NO BET
6-35 sow mrs warren 11/4 £10 win
7-05 dandy warbucks 14/5 £10 win
7-15 utt melu maid 9/4 £10 win
8-15 utt marju king 9/2 £10 win
8-35 sow gracies gift 11/1 £10 win
Think Ponte’s been called off 🙁
Hi Dean
Yeah I watched that as well and couldn’t believe it when the result was called! So I rewatched it a couple of times and still couldn’t believe it!
Gary
..headspace it was called,aptly named.
yeah,and the camera followed it aswell,just to confuse matters…that would been a great pick up for you Dean,also,the one early on was weird,when the horse was about to nick it on the line and sort of jumped at the finish line on the grass and finished 3rd! I’d backed both those buggers….
Did anyone watch the 6-50 ripon where bondesire clearly won but didnt
early in the day i had £100 double on megamunch and bondesire at 6/1 well i was jumping around the room going crazy then all of a sudden the race was given to penny garcia. Devastated
Ratings with stakes
Tuesday 10/7/12
2-15 wol almaty express 11/2 £5
marinus 5/1 £5
2-30 pon all on red 8/1 £3
slipstream 11/4 £7
2-45 wol restless bay 7/2 £7
waabel 16/1 £3
3-00 pon tenhoo 4/1 £6
the lock master 9/1 £4
3-15 wol rei doro 9/1 £4
venegazzu 7/2 £6
3-30 pon gowanharry 11/4 £6
celestial dawn 17/2 £4
3-45 wol la pampita 11/5 £5
christingle 11/5 £5
4-00 pon dragonera 13/2 £4
law of the range 7/2 £6
4-15 wol buaiteoir 9/2 £5 resuscitator 4/1 £5
4-30 pon roker park 11/2 £5
ballista 11/2 £5
4-45 wol spithead 5/2 £6
chant 11/2 place £4
5-00 pon awaywiththegreys 6/1 £5
white nile 13/2 £5
5-15 wol basle 5/1 £6
ire ute 11/1 £4
5-30 pon miss ella jade 4/1 £5
al jabreiah 7/2 £5
5-45 wol polar auroras 9/2 £6
huzzah 7/1 £4
6-05 sow dil laney 9/2 £5
crystal cove 7/2 £5
6-15 utt cabimas 11/10
dance tempo 7/2 NO VALUE
6-35 sow mrs warren 11/4 £6
masai king 11/2 £4
6-45 utt mwaleshi 9/4 £4
peaks of fire 6/4 £6
7-05 sow dandy warbucks 3/1 £6
frederick the great 6/1 £4
7-15 utt melu maid 9/4 £6
kings queen 8/1 £4
7-35 sow trusting 9/2 £6
tony hollis 12/1 £4
7-45 utt pickworth 5/1 £6
southway star 13/2 £4
8-05 sow sweetnessandlight 5/1 £4
safe house 13/5 £6
8-15 utt marju king 9/2 £6
kilmore west 7/1 £4
8-35 sow gracies gift 11/1 £4
tunnager grove 10/3 £6
8-45 utt barton cliche 9/4 £6
stormhoek 4/1 £4
9-05 sow carnac 7/2 £6
ritsi 8/1 £4
9-15 utt solway dandy 9/4 £6
breakoutthebooze 6/1 £4
mark w and johhny, mate its nice to earn money the easy way right?almost loads of us wants to do it, the only problem is control……if you have control in betting , youve got a good chance on surviving in these war of attrition…lol….the only worry is if youre winning a lot you intended to get lazy, always on telly and eating a lot( gain weight bwa ha ha ha) that waht happen to me,im only working for an agency on call….if i win big amount, stop working for a couple of weeks, i incurred barrage of winnings morethan my salary every week from december 2011 to march 2012, i really enjoy it alot… for me the bet is still laying on betfair on average youre earning much more than you earn, much easier to find a losing horse than to find a winner .
@ same here Mark,and she has a decent job,so things could be worse,I only have my good looks to get by on ( thank god there’s no photo needed!)
@ thanks again Dean 🙂
Sorry just wondering were the link is to the daily tips…can see these responses but not the tips….are they posted here or somewhere else…..thanks in advance
forgot to include my stakes on the ratings i will post them again with stakes on. Dean
Todays Top Picks
Monday 9/7/12
2-15 wol almaty express 11/2 £10 win
2-45 wol restless bay 7/2 £10 win
3-00 pon tenhoo 4/1 £10 win
3-30 pon gowanharry 11/1 £10 win
3-45 wol christingle 11/5 £10 win
4-15 wol buaiteoir 9/1 £10 win
5-15 wol basle 5/1 £10 win
5-30 pon miss ella jade 4/1 £10 win
6-15 utt cabimas 10/11 NO BET
6-35 sow mrs warren 11/4 £10 win
7-15 utt melu maid 9/4 £10 win
8-15 utt marju king 9/2 £10 win
8-35 sow gracies gift 11/1 £10 win
Sorry there a bit late this morning but here are the ratings
Tuesday 10/7/12
2-15 wol almaty express 11/2
marinus 5/1
2-30 pon all on red 8/1
slipstream 11/4
2-45 wol restless bay 7/2
waabel 16/1
3-00 pon tenhoo 4/1
the lock master 9/1
3-15 wol rei doro 9/1
venegazzu 7/2
3-30 pon gowanharry 11/4
celestial dawn 17/2
3-45 wol la pampita 11/5
christingle 11/5
4-00 pon dragonera 13/2
law of the range 7/2
4-15 wol buaiteoir 9/2 resuscitator 4/1
4-30 pon roker park 11/2
ballista 11/2
4-45 wol spithead 5/2
chant 11/2 place
5-00 pon awaywiththegreys 6/1
white nile 13/2
5-15 wol basle 5/1
ire ute 11/1
5-30 pon miss ella jade 4/1
al jabreiah 7/2
5-45 wol polar auroras 9/2
huzzah 7/1
6-05 sow dil laney 9/2
crystal cove 7/2
6-15 utt cabimas 11/10
dance tempo 7/2
6-35 sow mrs warren 11/4
masai king 11/2
6-45 utt mwaleshi 9/4
peaks of fire 6/4
7-05 sow dandy warbucks 3/1
frederick the great 6/1
7-15 utt melu maid 9/4
kings queen 8/1
7-35 sow trusting 9/2
tony hollis 12/1
7-45 utt pickworth 5/1
southway star 13/2
8-05 sow sweetnessandlight 5/1
safe house 13/5
8-15 utt marju king 9/2
kilmore west 7/1
8-35 sow gracies gift 11/1
tunnager grove 10/3
8-45 utt barton cliche 9/4
stormhoek 4/1
9-05 sow carnac 7/2
ritsi 8/1
9-15 utt solway dandy 9/4
breakoutthebooze 6/1
I’m very lucky in that i have a very supportive wife who gives me encouragement in anything i try.
There are people a lot worse off.
and good luck to you for the future aswell..
No problem Mark,yeah,think I’ve tried most of them down the years! A friend and me used to go halves on them,( there’s a thought,set up a site and flog ’em all!) In an ideal world,you probably need maybe half a dozen to see you through different times of the year,different sports etc. It’s the vicious circle of not having the time and space to test them as you’re too busy earning a wage.
Johnny, excuse me for butting in to your conversation, just to say there are some great systems out there, just sorting the wheat from the chaff isn’t too hard. Best ones utilise bookies free bet offers ( football ). Won’t say which in case i’m not allowed to on here. Good luck with the future, i’m in the same boat as you, on reduced hours at the moment and don’t want to go back to it full time. We all have a dream lol
Cheers Gaz,more or less yeah,I also tend to have a look at Brians tips on the other page as the racing starts,and if both Dean and Brian have selected the same hoss I put a bit more on it.
I was 5 and a half points up last night (55 quid) and had a strong feeling about Athenian,Dean had it and it had a great write up on the sporting life site,so I put ten on it and won a further 33,if only all days were that straightforward!
The firm I worked for closed at the start of July,so I decided not to jump straight back into work for at least a month,to see if there’s another way to get by than the drudgery of 9 to 5,if I could make a grand or 1200 each month that would be more than enough. I did it for around 18 months 6 years ago,but,hindsight being a wonderful thing,my main system was flawed in that I was chasing losses,had some great times when it worked tho 🙂
anyways,enough of my ramblings,best of luck today lads and ladies
Cheers Johnny. Jammy git haha!
Just to clarify. 6 points at £10 stakes would be £60 profit right??
So because you just got lucky hitting the winners, you managed to hit those profits?
Well done again Dean, 70% up on the day, helped by reverse forecasts in first race at ayr and last race at ripon, boy that was a close one.
Here’s hoping for another day like that and i’ll take the rest of the week off sick and watch the money roll in lol
Hi dean
Thanks for sharing your dutch split %, it was a great help and certainly makes a difference.
A profit was made today to help us onward and upwards 🙂
All the best for Tuesday.
..and I back just before each race,and hopefully stop if /when I hit 6 points
Hi Dean,Would like to register my interest in the Football pools.And also think it would be a good idea to have some form of contract.
Hiya Gaz,I normally split the tenner between them,if the odds are near each other,but I was unable to do all the selections today as I was busy,but struck the winners,so I was fortunate the way it went today
Great shout yet again Dean.Missed Ayr but was on tonight,some cracking results well done matey.Im up for the footie,but what you will need to bear in mind is none of us know each other,i would only go into something like that with contracts.Sorry guys no disrespect but i dont know you and likewise.Apart from that im in.
@Johnny
Agreed mate, Deans tips come up again!! Just curious as to how you bet like? I’ve finished today 50% up on my opening bank of £60 by betting the £10 dutch. Obviously this way I can’t put all the bets on early doors and so don’t get all the odds Dean quotes. Wondered which way you went with it?
@Dean
Excellent stuff mate! Can’t grumble with what you’re doing at all mate. VERY unlucky in the first race two where one selection would have won apart from a stumble on the death and the other selection would’ve won with 2 more strides!!
Very keen on the footy idea too pal – count me in on that!!
…and Athenian’s just put the cherry on top,brilliant Dean!
some great picks again on the dutching Dean 🙂
Thanks Dean for clearing up that query!
Thanks again for being altruistic and helping others so kindly, i have lost loads on tipsters x about 10, who invariably disappoint and leave you very light in the pocket especially as you wait for the turn around that often does not come! It is refreshing that you are so helpful to those interested like Brian also! Here’s to making steady profits and enjoying racing again and not feeling frustrated.
Happy Punting!