Hopefully by now you have downloaded and read my Betfair trading Strategy ebook. If not then click here to Download it.
This page has been designed so that you can discus the strategy and help each other out should you have any problems. Hopefully together we can make this a profitable system for everybody.
wrong forum wanted bd forum,have to get intouch with jason as i can’t find my details of the forum
Matt thanks for your example very helpful.
Jo, I think there is a practice mode on bet angel, this is probably the best way to go until you’re sure you know what you’re doing…then you’re not risking any money!
As an example, I’ve found a selection for tomorrow: Signora Frasi in the 5:30 at Kempton. It’s started slowly in all it’s last 6 races, the race is over a mile and it’s currently at 8 on betfair so seems to meet all the selection criteria.
Currently there are no odds available to lay the horse, but assuming there will be tomorrow, lets say we would lay £33 at 9 (potential liability £264), then set up Bet Angel to back bet £23 once it drifts to 13 (potential profit of £276). So if it wins, we get 276-264= £12 profit. If it loses we get 33-23= £10 profit. I would set the stop loss at 6.9 for £43, this would mean no more than around £10 lost if it started well. I’m not putting any money on this but lets just see what happens. Hope this was of help to some people.
Hi Matt glad your taking a look at this as I’m confused , I can’t find any green ups. Would be great if anyone doing this successfully could share their finds to follow as an example, anyone out there? Perhaps Jason ?
Having read some of the comments below, it seems the problem with stop loss is that you haven’t been setting it low enough. As I understand it, if you lay at 6, setting the stop loss at 3 ticks below would mean it’s at 5.7. If you set it at 20 ticks below it’ll be around 4. The loss won’t be massive at this level but the stop loss has less chance of being activated before the race has even started.
If you want to take less risk, doing as Neil says (looking for horses starting at odds around 10) seems to be the best way to go, rather than varying the number of ticks.
Please be aware that I write this comment not having tried the method myself yet, I will be giving it a go in a couple of weeks when I have more time to look into it.
Certainly has legs but likely to be some hairy moments for odds on betting.
An excel spreadsheet should be fairly easy to set up but I cannot copy the one I use on this link
Remembering also you have little time for betting in short races
I use sporting bots GHB works ok
best of luck
Jason many thanks again, I have the system working in a limited fashion, it will get better with practice.
I consider it a useful addition to my portfolio.
Not much point in continuing on here as no response.
correction the first “liability” should read
liquidity.
it works for me if:
higher prices 10+
wait a few seconds after start to see if the price goes out, if you have selected correctly it should.
Keep stop loss manual.
set back bet low e.g. 5/6 ticks
problems.
liability means you will have to limit your stake under £25 as not a lot of money at this price.
the lay liability is also a concern if the trade goes against you.
Observations please
Thanks Mary & Neil at least it’s a start. Feel i’m gonna b here a long time though, and the trial periods only 2 weeks hmmm
just done ling 3.05 sweet ovation on manual stop loss, price to lay 11.5 so liability was high but it worked ok. maybe the higher price as long as they meet the criteria is the way to go, only problem if you miss the stop loss and the price comes in.
ling 1.30 number of possibles but I go with honey of a kitten.
Please talk me out of it if you have better.
Mary not sure I would want to put my stop loss at 10 or 20 ticks the loss would be too big. mine is set at 6.
I have had more success if I wait for a couple of seconds after the off when all the scalpers have with drawn their funds and we are dealing with a truer market, also if prices start to come in straight away you can leave things alone, down side if they go out then liability looks very high.
I think its a matter of practice.
With selections I look at anything under 8/1 in the racing post but only mark possibles if all three of the comments indicate a slow starter, I then revisit the selection later in betfair when prices are more accurate and make ajustments, then like you I use offset and stop loss with hedge [racing trader software]as its just one click. Still early days, we know the theory is right so it should work.
Daniel, I am afraid we cannot help you in a simple way. Go onto bet angel site and start reading the manual. If you have never used a software for betting, you will just have to learn slowly. But, just for a start: for this strategy you will first have to place your lay bet on a selection (manually, just clicking on the lay odds of your selection) and set up the settings in the upper left corner (orange area in practice mode of bet angel) for offseting, I’m using Offset bet with greening and Stop, and fill the boxes for ticks. You can save those settings for future use.
I hope this helps.
Neil, I also think stop loss might be a problem here. It triggers more often than not. I have my settings at 10 ticks. But when I changed the stop loss trigger to 20 ticks, placing at 10, I had more success (this is in bet angel practice mode). This means it triggers the stop loss 20 ticks below your initial bet but requesting to be matched at 10 ticks below. Not sure whether I was just lucky though. My reasoning behind this is: ticks go “eaten” faster below 6.00. It seems that finding the best settings is of great importance here. After five days of practice and playing with the settings, it looks to me I’m just breaking even with this strategy. There are only a few proper selections per day and it’s really hard to find an edge.
has anyone had any success in avoiding the stop loss yet?
If so please let me know how !!!!!
Hi Daniel I don’t use bet angel I use racing traders but I don’t think there is much difference. Find the training mode and switch it on, go into a horse race and press a button back or lay, as long as you are training it wont matter, play around. Many people use trading software are you saying your not as bright as they are ?
Thanks Neil,
I understand that i need to practice, but how can I practice If I don’t know how to use the programme.
The system I understand it’s placing it on bet angel I don’t understand and how I’m suppose to use it
I understand the laying and backing idea of the system and would really love to be able to use bet angel but regardless of the number of times I watch the videos it makes no sense!!! Anyone help please??
Daniel you are where we have all been, it takes practice.
try in training it will make sense.
One of the basic tenets I live my life by is
“never let ignorance hold you back” JUST GIVE IT A GO.
Nick I think you are better working your own selections as I wrote lower down its the process not the selection that will make this work [or not] Try in training with any horse to see if you can over come the issue with the stop loss being taken before the back bet. I am sure it can but it’s proving difficult.
Or maybe if we each share our selections we can see how they go and guide each other to where we are going wrong?
Hi gents, anyone been successful with this yet? I’d like to start it up, could someone send a few selections for tomorrow which fit the criteria and are expected to drift in running, that would be a great help.
RIGHT!! I’M TOTALLY LOST!!
Don’t understand how to use bet angel one bit. Been watching the videos that come with it and on youtube.
Too much information which I doubt I need right now.
Coould someone plz explain to me step by step of how to place the bet and use the stop loss plz?
Tick size and all the rest of it makes no sense to me
You are right Neil I usually stay away from horses on sat. as better value in the week. wanted to get some practice in today before the football started.
I think with this it’s the process not the selection that needs getting right. one of today’s losing trades was at ling, although I do agree with your observation about A.W.
Jason do you have any observation’s about tracks or distance or class or anything.
2 out of 5 still work to do, back to the football I think I know what I’m doing there.
neil, my own personal view is that i’m very cautious ‘trading’ on a Saturday and tend to narrow the stop loss on a Sat. you may find middle distances on the A/W better.
again stop loss set at 6 ticks triggered so a loss when should have won, frustrating, any ideas?
not often i’m right but I’m wrong again,stop loss worked so thats a positive.
first in, workbench Fav I know but a poor one in a novice race not even placed, lay at 2.78 backed at 3.2 a bit to low didnt have stop loss on hedge so it came into play, this is why I am in training and going to carry on training until I am fluid.Alder Mairi in the 2.55 wincanton next
The easiest way to cover it is either google
Back2Lay or Stakesoft, they have a very good video – You can exit your bet % at what level your comfortable with, back2lay or lay2back which what i favour.
not used a bot what do you do with it.
I use Back2Lay,(Bot) and find my selections about midday,usually selective and put up no more than 6 a day, it has no ‘stoploss’ but i use BetAngel basic ‘free’ as a one-click stoploss function if i need too
no only in training also I am doing many races that don’t meet criteria in terms of numbers but are good to asses the horses and try different processes placing trades as I believe the more practice the better.What software do you use.
neil you did ok with khawatim but if your using money for real its probably advisable not to trade at such a short price, 3.50 is my min. Also i don’t trade on 6F and 5F races
as there is so little time for horses to get out of trouble or in the case of Lay to Back
theres some false run races.
told you!!! not sure how but I managed to make £5.02 I did my lay at 1.71 and back at 1.90.
training program with bet trader does’nt have a record of bets in training.
thats me for tonight of to trade munich.
to anyone out there I marked khawatim 7.20 dundalk as a lay bet this morning, if it wasn;t fav it would meet criteria here aswell.
Only paper trading at mo, but identified thecornishcowboy as one yesterday, thats when the stop loss would have been needed, so it is very essential, if we can work out when to put it on. Any help greatly appreciated.
only in training here. how are you doing with the stop loss. I have had some success placing the back bet and locking it in just before the off, then placing my lay and stop loss, still work in progress.
Not at all – just doing this to small stakes
at the mo. 5 from 5 yesterday 2 from 2 so far
today 4 to come.
has everyone given up? Ive had 3 in so far today.
Jason I sent a comment in answer to Jeremy’s but there is no sign of it?
Jeremy if you put another lay you are increasing your liability, the idea of stop loss is to reduce your liability by placing a back bet at a lower price thereby stopping the trade. The problem with stop loss is it being taken before the first back bet is taken, not sure what you do about that, any ideas ?
HI Jeremy the problem we are trying to resolve is of losing a large liability before the back bet has been matched. so you put a second back bet at lower odds, so that if the trade goes against you your stop loss back bet comes into play and reduces your loss to a portion of your liability rather than the total amount. If you google bet angel, geeks toy, racing traders, these are all trading software they will show you examples of how it works. the biggest problem with stop loss is during the 5 mins before the off the scalpers move the price about and your stop loss can get matched due to their activity rather than a true reflection of race conditions as Marc points out below. Jason do you have any suggestions as to when to place the stop loss. Incidently a good day yesterday 5 out of 5.
But Neil if it goes down to 1.95 from 3.9 then your lay for 2.0 would have been met and you wouldn’t have a loss to stop. Surely a stop-loss has to be a lay if you’ve initially backed.
Been trying to learn the basics since following Ray’s (short-lived) Trades section of the forum and hadn’t yet been introduced to the concept of the third (stop-loss) bet, so if I can stop a large proportion of any losses I want to have a clear understanding of how it’s done, yes please.
I share Mark’s anxiety about calculating stakes, especially in a hurry, and I guess that’s where the software has a big part to play. I’m far less confused now than I was a month ago so hopefully it’ll go on in the same vein. Just need to carve out more time for bleary-eyed learning.
first one in today indelible run 2.20 thurle
jeremy the stop loss can be automated, also it is a back bet not a lay. so you back £10 @3.9 lay £15 @ 2 then the stop lost puts a back bet on however many ticks you chose. eg 5 ticks the on the example above back bet would go on at 1.95 for the relevant amount to stop your loss.
clear as mud?
I’m not sure I understand the mechanics of a stop-loss bet and why trading software is necessary to implement it. I mean, let’s say you’ve backed at 8 and lay at 6… doesn’t also laying at 9 for a smaller loss achieve the same thing should the market move against you?
I did one race in practice mode and the stop loss was hit and the horse lost. In fact, the horse didnt trade any lower than the stop loss.
Thanks Neil i will certainly have a good look. I am no good with figures and i need all the help i can get.
Thanks again for your help
Jason your a star 10 races 9 winners on the losing race I didn’t have the stop loss working correctly, work in progress.
Will continue to trade in training for a few weeks as past experience has taught me there is no rush, it will still work in a months time and I will have worked out all my failings.
Many Thanks my friend
mark if you use the “what if” function on betfair [unfortunatley since they changed thing round I can’t remember how you access it] then play around, I think if you put put the back odds around 150% of the lay odds and put around 66% of the lay money you should get somewhere near. I must warn you I am near innumerate.
Think Dazzling Silver qualifies in the 4:30 Lingfield, and Lytham in the 5:00 would bar its last run.
There’s a few 10+ runner fields in Kempton so I’ll try and find if there’s any there.
Neil Many thanks – I wasn’t certain but I thought was probably the case
Hi has anyone please got a simple method how to work out how my to bet after you have layed to make a profit.
Ray I am pretty sure as its the same market you only pay for the actual clear profit.
Hi Neil oops you are right as it happens I had greened up before the off with broughton, also on ma belle and enchanted forrest.find it hard to work out back bet, having to fiddle about on B.F.anyone have a formula? by the way the broughton lay worked as well, happy days
Of course I meant 5% of £250 not £300
Would they take commission even if the net position were zero?
Many Thanks for the system Jason.
Could someone answer this.
If I lay a horse and then back it in running what commission will Betfair take?
What I mean is if things go against me and say I lost £300 and won £250 would I pay 5% of £300 or would Betfair subtract the loss from the winnings and take 5% of £50. Sorry if this has been asked before.
Thanks Jason, Going to give it a go today. I think Ive found my first attempt. Thurles 2.05 Ma belle Amie, lay 6.8, more than 10 horses, last 3 held up at rear. Im on it.
From one Neil to another, re: Broughton bandit / safwaan You are half right, sure they are both held up gg’s but if you look through the guide Jason does recommened avoiding the fav and also their price is not
between 4.0 and 8.0 ,still if your paper trading no harm done, Good luck Neil
Here’s my five for today that I will paper trade.
Boston Blue 2.30 Lingfield.
Lytham 5.00 Kempton.
Spirit Of Gondree 5.30 Kempton.
Reasons Unknown 7.30 Kempton.
Findolex or Flamborough Breeze 8.00 Kempton.
Thanks for the system Jason looks very interesting.
I’ve come up with these for today 13-02-13
Lingfield 2:30 Boston Blue
Lingfield 4:30 Dazzling Venture, Safwan
Kempton 5:00 Lytham
Kempton 5:30 Spirit of Gondree
Kempton 7:30 Reasons Unknown
Kempton 8:00 Finlodex, FLAMBOROUGH BREEZE
Mark
Is there a similar guide available Jason?
Yes you can apply it the other way around. However you have to be sure that the horses you select will run a good race.
Jason I take it u can also apply this back and then lay ? Do u recommend if so can u provide example this way also pls, tks.
Hi Jason looks interesting will try today. I use racing trader evo software, like bet angel it has a training facility so no risk.
It will take time to get the selections right, two horses I identified today I had already selected as lay bets.
ling 2.30 broughton bandit
ling 4.30 safwaan
Please if anyone does these please remember they are the first selections so I put no faith in them, indeed I would be interested if anyone can point out if I have gone wrong.
Hi it is probably simple but is there an easy way to calculate how much i have to bet ie some kind of odd calculator? Please
Thanks
Mark
Looks interesting but like Graham I think I’m going to need a couple of reads to get into the trading frame of mind, thanks Jason.
Thanks for the trading system very interesting I will have to read it a few times for it to sink in but looks as though it could be profitable, much appreciated.
graham