This is a fight I have been looking forward to for a few weeks now. if you remember last time I tipped Garcia to beat Khan at big odds. Garcia caught him with a big punch and knocked him out. Many thought that was the end for Khan but he decided to ditch his coach (freddie roach) for his new coach Virgil Hunter. Personally I think was a very wise move for Khan and he will definitely come out a better fighter. A big flaw for Khan has always been his chin. He lets his heart rule his head and leaves himself open far to often, this is when he gets caught as we saw with Garcia. Virgil Hunter will have trained Khan to defend himself a lot better and to be smarter in the ring. He has said that plan is to be more cautious and plod his way through the rounds. Now at odds of 1/9 I will not be backing Khan, not that I dont think he will win, but there just isnt any value here whatsoever. Another reason is because I think Molina could be a threat.
Here is what I have come up with in terms of betting. i think this offers some good value and a good chance to profit from the fight.
Go the distance? Yes @ 3/1
Amir Khan has personally said that he needs to change his ways. This is a fight he simply can not lose. He has stated that if he has to fight boring then he will, as long as he gets the job done. There is so much pressure on Khan to win this fight, he will be low on confidence from the Garcia fight and he will not want to get knocked out again. Expect Khan to fight a lot more defensively than in the past. He will be smarter and will know if it goes the full 12 rounds, he will most likely win.
Another reason i feel this is a good bet is because I have been looking at his opponent. Carlos Molina is pretty unheard of, but he is a good fighter, and believe me, he as extremely fast hands. He has had 17 fights and 17 victories, but only 7 KO's. He's not got a strong punch which means another reason it could go all the way. I think this opponent has been carefully selected. They don't want to see Khan spark out on the canvas again.
I think Molina will be tougher than some people think. So with Khan going more defensively and Molina not having a strong punch, this fight will go a long way. Hopefully all the way.
Molina to WIN by KO, TKO or DQ. @ 10
Now if Khan lives up to the hype and his new trainer really has changed him and made him a more defensive fighter, then Khan won't get knocked out. But if Molina or anybody else for that matter gets in his head, we could see Khan get frustrated and the old Khan could return where his guard drops and he goes all hell for leather, from which Molina could step in and knock him out! Lets not forget, Molina is fighting in his home town L.A
I think at this price its worth a small cover bet
So we have a more 'cautious' Khan who simply cant afford to lose against a fighter that does not have a killer punch, but is very fast and unbeaten. Should be an interesting fight
3 Bets (Khan should win, but I just cant resist these prices)
Go the distance @ 3/1 5pts
Molina Win by KO, TKO or DQ @ 10 1pt
Molina win by points or decision @ 25/1 1pt