Grand National Getting Into Gear

It may be the biggest betting day of the year with over £200m being laid, but for serious punters the National is only for fun betting. Or is it? Analyse and fancy all you will, the reality is:

 

1.Any horse carrying more than 11 stone has zero chance of winning this historic race.

 

2. In the last 50 races, the favourite has only won on 8 occasions

 

Still, if Red Rum was one of the 40 runners, he’d be favourite and you would have to back him.

 

Other interesting ways of narrowing down the runners is to look at age. Nine year olds have fared best over the years, with experience more valuable than youth over the 4.5 mile course, and older horses have done well too. In fact, only two 7 year olds have won since the start of the Second World War.

 

Long-odds winners are not at all unusual, so don’t take the current price as a guide – anything at 25/1 or better has a reasonable chance. As of now, there are 15 runners priced lower than 25/1 for this weekend. Since the race first started, there have been 5 winners at 100/1, with 3 since 1980 – but picking a 100/1 shot is too far out in my opinion – unless of course you are the owner!

 

‘Synchronised’ is current favourite at 8/1, with McCoy riding to make him only the second horse to win the Gold Cup and National in the same year. There is a massive range of special bets for this race for those who like something odd – for example Ballabriggs Winning Distance. That is way off course for me!

 

At 7am this morning (Friday), the going was reported as good to soft, good in places for the National course. I checked the Met Office for all that’s good about British weather. Did I laugh? They had the National down for 22 April – so, is it the right weather forecast? It’s no wonder I always get caught short with their forecasts! So far this week, the course has missed the showers, though showers are still forecast for the big day. I’m expecting the going to remain unchanged.

 

With Ruby Walsh riding On-His-Own (14/1) and sister Katie on Seabass (20/1) there will be a sweet race-within-a-race. There’s a special on Katie to win at 23/1 (Stan James) – at the moment that’s better odds than a Seabass win.

 

As for the Aintree Festival, Ruby Walsh at 4/6 is favourite for Best Jockey, with McCoy at 7/1. Which would give them most satisfaction – top jock or National winner? Enjoy!

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13 thoughts on “Grand National 2012”

  1. @ Graham, I do know the ‘couch’ personally, Mark is a genuine guy but is easily distracted by those who think they know more than him, he gets info from some of the biggest tipping advisors in the business, which sometimes is totally wrong, Mark is better at writing the script rather than tipping, but as they say, pays your money, take your chance.

  2. Your Comments : Any Quote “Any horse carrying more than 11 stone has zero chance of winning this historic race”

    Sorry that’s not right

  3. Your Comments I HAD SUNNYHILL BOY E/W TOOK 25/1 HAPPY DAY I HAD A FEELING 20/1 OR BIGGER THE WINNER WOULD BE ONLY BECAUSE I KNEW A FAV COULDN`T WIN HAD TO BE OUTSIDER

  4. Your Comments The point i was trying to make was that because the entry conditions have changed so much many of the past stats are meaningless.There will be many more winners carrying more than 11 stone now imo

  5. IS the going as currently described? the winning time on the GN course yesterday would suggest more like firm/good.I do agree as well about the stats as with the modifications and entry conditions this is really quite a different race-not that helps selctions at all however!!
    Killyglen for me
    and a smaller each way on organised confusion. I know its age (young) is against it as previously but it has already won the irishGN and I think has a good shout although I was dissapointed with the stables runner in the bumper yesterday-great ride though by Rachel green though on the winner.

  6. @Dave – there may have been winners carrying more than 11 stone. I think that the poster was right in what was said – 11 stone+ winners are rarer than 4% which is where I draw the line. Every starter has a chance, but you have to make selections on some stats basis. IMHO

  7. Dunno what happened there

    Iv’e narrowed it down and been left with

    Junior 16’s
    Shakalakaboomboom 16’s
    Killyglen 18’s

    Best Of Luck Everyone

    Ray

  8. I thought last years winner was carrying more than 11st, I could be wrong, westend rocker for me anyway…good luck people!

  9. Your Comments I think most of the stats can now be totally disregarded.
    The fences have been modified.The entry conditions of the race have changed so much that a better class of horse now runs and a lot of the so called no hopers have not even been allowed to enter.So for me a horse carrying more that 11 stone does have a chance